Baby Mama

Hollywood is heading into its biggest season after a very solid weekend. Last year, on the weekend before the release of mega-blockbuster Spider-Man 3 (Sony), the Top 12 movies generated $62.2M. This year, on the 3-day prior to the release of Paramount’s Iron Man, the Top 12 have scored an estimated $80.6M. That’s a 25% year-over-year increase, and 4 films will finish with $10M+.

As I first reported Friday, the fertility-themed comedy Baby Mama (Universal) has won the weekend. The Tina Fey-Amy Poehler vehicle received a decent 13% Friday-to-Saturday bump, adding another $7.09M. That should translate to a better-than-expected $17.7M for the weekend. Meanwhile, Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros), staggered to a $5.07M Saturday, down 11% from opening day. The stoner sequel will likely wrap up the frame with $13.91M or so.

It’s a photo finish for #3. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) received a better Saturday bounce than Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), winning the day $5.07M-$4.87M. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy will fare better on Sunday however, and I’m projecting that Jason Segal’s breakthrough film will top Jackie Chan and Jet Li by a nose.

Nim’s Island (Fox) finished 5th on Saturday with a nice family matinee bounce, but Prom Night (Sony) will be #5 for the weekend. The low budget slasher remake will have banked another $4.75M by Monday morning, pushing its cume past $38M.

The other new wide release is an unmitigated disaster. Deception (Fox) will finish #10 with an unimaginably bad $2.28M, a meager $1,139 per screen average. This really makes you wonder about the box office clout of Hugh Jackman and Ewan McGregor.

In the weekend PTA race, Oscar winner Claude Lelouch’s Roman De Gare (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) has opened strongly on 2 screens with $12,818 per location. Errol Morris’ well-reviewed Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) managed $8,869 per screen, but that’s not particularly impressive. 2 prime theatres, spectacular reviews, and still, this doc about the Abu Ghraib prison scandal has failed to break out with a $10,000+ PTA. This is further evidence that any films relating to the Iraq War will have trouble selling tickets. Helen Hunt’s excellent Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) will deliver a nearly $8,000 PTA, the 3rd best PTA of the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – 2 locations – $12,818 PTA
2. NEW – Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) – 2 locations – $8,869 PTA
3. NEW – Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) – 9 locations – $7,778 PTA
4. NEW – Baby Mama (Universal) – 2,543 locations – $6,962 PTA
5. Ben X (Equinoxe) – 5 locations – $6,800 PTA
6. NEW – Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – 2,510 locations – $5,545 PTA
7. The Visitor (Overture Films) – 76 locations – $5,289 PTA
8. The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – 11 locations – $5,000 PTA
9. NEW – War Inc. (Independent) – 1 location – $4,795 PTA
10. NEW – Without the King (First Run) – 1 location – $4,384 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Baby Mama (Universal) – $7.09M – $2,791 PTA – $13.37M cume
2. NEW – Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $5.07M – $2,021 PTA – $10.77M cume
3. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $4.87M – $1,547 PTA – $35.1M cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $4.64M- $1,659 PTA – $32.1M cume
5. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $2.088M – $701 PTA – $37.7M cume
6. Prom Night (Sony) – $2.081M – $738 PTA – $37.5M cume
7. 21 (Sony) – $1.84M – $626 PTA – $74.8M cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) – $1.58M – $732 PTA – $11.6M cume
9. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $1.12M – $522 PTA – $147.2M cume
10. NEW – Deception (Fox) – $950,000 – $475 PTA – $1.71M cume
11. Street Kings (Fox) – $935,000 – $539 PTA – $23.1M cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) – $855,000 – $381 PTA – $28.8M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $175,000 – $2,303 PTA – $614,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $97,000 – $1,732 PTA – $456,000 cume
*NEW – Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) – $29,000 – $3,222 PTA – $49,000 cume
*The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) – $29,000 – $784 PTA – $78,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $23,000 – $2,091 PTA – $180,000 cume
*NEW – A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) – $20,000 – $345 PTA – $36,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $17,000 – $3,400 PTA – $96,000 cume
*NEW – Deal (MGM) – $13,000 – $260 PTA – $25,000 cume
*NEW – Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – $11,543 – $5,772 PTA – $17,555 cume
*NEW – Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) – $7,537 – $3,768 PTA – $12,463 cume
*NEW – Rogue (Third Rail) – $2,969 – $297 PTA – $4,948 cume
*NEW – War Inc. (Independent) – $1,851 – $1,851 PTA – $3,684 cume
*NEW – Without the King (First Run) – $1,581 – $1,581 PTA – $3,357 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Baby Mama (Universal) – $17.7M – $6,962 PTA – $17.7M cume
2. NEW – Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $13.91M – $5,545 PTA – $13.91M cume
3. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $11.51M- $4,112 PTA – $35.5M cume
4. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $11.44M – $3,631 PTA – $38.4M cume
5. Prom Night (Sony) – $4.75M – $1,687 PTA – $38.4M cume
6. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $4.6M – $1,546 PTA – $39M cume
7. 21 (Sony) – $4.15M – $1,409 PTA – $75.9M cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) – $3.64M- $1,682 PTA – $12.6M cume
9. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $2.51M – $1,164 PTA – $147.9M cume
10. Deception (Fox) – $2.28M – $1,139 PTA – $2.28M cume
11. Street Kings (Fox) – $2.19M – $1,265 PTA – $23.7M cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) – $1.88M – $838 PTA – $29.3M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $402,000 – $5,289 PTA – $751,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $226,000 – $4,036 PTA – $534,000 cume
*NEW – Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) – $70,000 – $7,778 PTA – $70,000 cume
*The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) – $70,000 – $1,892 PTA – $101,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $55,000 – $5,000 PTA – $198,000 cume
*NEW – A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) – $49,000 – $845 PTA – $49,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $34,000 – $6,800 PTA – $108,000 cume
*NEW – Deal (MGM) – $33,000 – $660 PTA – $33,000 cume
*NEW – Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – $25,635 – $12,818 PTA – $25,635 cume
*NEW – Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) – $17,739 – $8,869 PTA – $17,739 cume
*NEW – Rogue (Third Rail) – $6,550 – $655 PTA – $6,550 cume
*NEW – War Inc. (Independent) – $4,795 – $4,384 PTA – $4,384 cume
*NEW – Without the King (First Run) – $4,384 – $4,384 PTA – $4,384 cume

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