Saw 4

Jigsaw “traps” moviegoers again! SAW IV opens w/$14M Fri & headed for $33.3M 3-day; Carell’s DAN w/$3.8M Fri & targets $11.9M for weekend; Lumet’s BEFORE THE DEVIL to easily win PTA w/$30K+ for 3-day; Demme’s CARTER doc proves Jimmy still has low approval
by Steve Mason

Despite tracking that suggested a certain “Jigsaw fatigue,” Saw IV (Lionsgate) has opened to an estimated $14M Friday, which should carry it to within striking distance of the biggest opening weekend of the franchise.

1994’s original Saw was a surprise hit with an $18.2M opening weekend, en route to $55.1M domestic. After that, Lionsgate has released an installment the weekend prior to Halloween each year. Saw II opened with $31.7M ($87M cume) and last year’s Saw III grabbed $33.6M in its opening 3-day ($80.2M cume). Saw IV should bank $33.3M or so by Monday morning, but it won’t be a surprise to see it top the opening weekend performance of Saw III.

Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista), starring Steve Carell and Juliette Binoche, has beaten industry expectations with a $3.8M Friday and a likely $11.9M O.W.. In a Fall of dour Hollywood offerings, Dan, from the director of Pieces of April, Peter Hedges, is a cowd-pleaser that could hold up well in coming weeks.

It appears that Sony’s vampire pic 30 Days of Night has fallen hard. After a $2M Friday, 3rd for the day, its probable $5.9M weekend will represent a 63% drop. The Game Plan (Buena Vista), starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson keeps on rolling. The family comedy was #4 on Friday with an estimated $2M, but it will be 3rd for the weekend with $6.2M or so and a new cume of over $76M. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married (Lionsgate) was fifth for the day with $1.65M and its $5.8M weekend will likely round out the weekend top 5.

Sidney Lumet’s Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm), featuring Oscar caliber performances from Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ethan Hawke, has opened huge at 2 locations. It’s Friday PTA of $10,655 should translate to a 3-day Per Theatre Average of about $38,000.

Bella, a new release from IDP directed by Alejandro Gomez Montverde, has opened surprisingly strong at 165 locations. The 2006 winner of the Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award topped $2,500 per on Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with an estimated $1.36M and a 3-day PTA of $8,300.

The news was not as good for several other new titles. Rails & Ties (Warner Bros), directed by Alison Eastwood and starring Marcia Gay Harden and Kevin Bacon, managed only a $605 PTA at 5 locations on Friday, which doesn’t bode well for expansion. Meanwhile, Jonathan Demme’s Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) proves that Carter is just as unpopular as he was in the late 1970’s when the US was gripped by “stagflation.” This doc is a nonstarter with a $324 PTA at 7 locations on Friday.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – $14M – $4,398 PTA – $14M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista)) – $3.8M – $1,978 PTA – $3.8M cume
3. 30 Days of Night (Sony) – $2M – $700 PTA – $21.5M cume
4. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – $1.8M – $539 PTA – $72.1M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) – $1.65M – $870 PTA – $42.6M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) – $1.46M – $566 PTA – $24.6M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) – $1.2M – $701 PTA – $8.1M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – $1.18M – $423 PTA – $7.4M cume
9. We Own the Night (Sony) – $985,000- $410 PTA – $22.2M cume
10. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – $935,000 – $1,658 PTA – $66.3M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) – $720,000 – $320 PTA – $5.8M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $600,000 – $300 PTA – $33.6M cume
13. Across the Universe (Sony) – $530,000 – $550 PTA – $17.9M cume
14. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) – $485,000 – $304 PTA – $12.5M cume
15. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – $475,000 – $722 PTA – $7.6M cume
*Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – $465,000 – $666 PTA – $4.7M cume
*NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – $415,000 – $2,506 PTA – $415,000 cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) – $215,000 – $726 PTA – $595,728 cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $200,000 – $175 PTA – $2.1M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) – $130,000 – $442 PTA – $2.5M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) – $123,000 – $860 PTA – $2.4M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $75,000 – $306 PTA – $318.5M cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) – $23,749 – $1,397 PTA – $23,749 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – $21,310 – $10,655 PTA – $21,310 cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) – $20,647 – $1,376 PTA – $134.000 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) – $16,125 – $645 PTA – $16,125 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – $13,320 – $3,330 PTA – $75,372 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) – $10,628 – $273 PTA – $62,381 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) – $3,025 – $605 PTA – $3,025 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) – $2,647 – $2,647 PTA – $2,647 cume
*NEW – Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) – $2,268 – $324 PTA – $2,268 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) – $1,920 – $490 PTA – $1,920 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) – $1,506 – $251 PTA – $1,506 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – $33.3M – $10,462 PTA – $33.3M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista)) – $11.9M – $6,195 PTA – $11.9M cume
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – $6.2M – $1,855 PTA – $76.5M cume
4. 30 Days of Night (Sony) – $5.9M – $2,064 PTA – $25.4M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) – $5.8M – $3,057 PTA – $46.7M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) – $4.53M – $1,754 PTA – $27.7M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) – $3.99M – $2,333 PTA – $10.9M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – $3.62M – $1,290 PTA – $9.9M cume
9. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – $3.55M – $6,300 PTA – $68.9M cume
10. We Own the Night (Sony) – $3.15M- $1,312 PTA – $24.3M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) – $2.44M – $1,085 PTA – $7.5M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.9M – $949 PTA – $34.9M cume
13. Across the Universe (Sony) – $1.64M – $1,704 PTA – $19M cume
14. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – $1.58M – $2,404 PTA – $8.7M cume
15. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) – $1.57M – $988 PTA – $13.6M cume
*Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – $1.44M – 2,065 PTA – $5.6M cume
*NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – $1.36M – $8,300 PTA – $1.36M cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) – $739,600 – $2,499 PTA – $1.1M cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $710,000 – $622 PTA – $2.6M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) – $436,650 – $3,053 PTA – $2.7M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) – $422,500 – $1,437 PTA – $2.7M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $285,000 – $1,163 PTA – $318.7M cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) – $80,747 – $4,750 PTA – $80,747 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – $76,716 – $38,358 PTA – $76,716 cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) – $73,296 – $4,886 PTA – $186,683 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) – $54,825 – $2,193 PTA – $54,825 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – $43,956 – $10,989 PTA – $106,000 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) – $35,390 – $907 PTA – $87,143 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) – $10,588 – $2,118 PTA – $10,588 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) – $8,470 – $8,470 PTA – $8,470 cume
*NEW – Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) – $7,938 – $1,134 PTA – $7,938 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) – $6,720 – $1,680 PTA – $6,720 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) – $5,721 – $879 PTA – $5,271 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $10,655 PTA
2. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations – $4,398 PTA
3. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations – $3,330 PTA
4. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location – $2,647 PTA
5. NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – 165 locations – $2,506 PTA
6. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations – $1,978 PTA
7. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations – $1,658 PTA
8. Finishing the Game (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $1,537 PTA
9. NEW – Music Within (MGM) – 17 locations – $1,397 PTA
10. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations – $1,376 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $38,358 PTA
2. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations – $10,989 PTA
3. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations – $10,462 PTA
4. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location – $8,470 PTA
5. NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – 165 locations – $8,300 PTA
6. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations – $6,300 PTA
7. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations – $6,195 PTA
8. Finishing the Game (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $5,072 PTA
9. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations – $4,886 PTA
10. NEW – Music Within (MGM) – 17 locations – $4,750 PTA

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