Vantage Point

Critics have been generally unkind to Vantage Point, the Pete Travis-directed film, with many, describing it as an Akira Kurosawa Rashomon ripoff, but that hasn’t kept moviegoers away. With an all-star cast, including Oscar winners William Hurt and Forest Whitaker, Matthew Fox from TV’s Lost, and former Academy Award nominees Dennis Quaid and Sigourney Weaver, this assassination thriller has exceeded industry expectations with a powerful $7.5M opening day, and it is headed for an estimated $22.4M opening weekend.

Vantage Point has overcome soft industry tracking (I forecasted just $16M in my Weekend Tracking column) and taken advantage of a weekend with no serious competition to absolutely swamp the field. In fact, the 2nd place movie during Oscar weekend will likely be holdover The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) with an estimated $13M. That’s almost a full $10M behind the weekend’s #1 movie.

Fox’s Jumper added $3.9M on Friday compared to Spiderwick’s $3.1M, but the Doug Liman sci-fi action flick will finish 3rd for the 3-day with $12.2M or so. That’s off 55% from opening weekend, but the Hayden Christensen vehicle will wrap up the weekend with $55.7M.

Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) danced to another $2.9M on Friday, and it will finish the weekend at #4 with $8.2M. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) delivered another $2.1M to kick off the frame, and it will stay in the Top 5 with a probable $6.4M and a new cume of $52.5M.

Beyond Vantage Point, the most successful new wide release is Be Kind, Rewind (New Line), the latest cinematic adventure from Academy Award winner Michel Gondry. The Jack Black-Mos Def surrealist comedy scored a nifty $1,485 Friday PTA for a $1.2M opening day. I’m projecting $3.65M for the 3-day or a $4,517 PTA.

As expected, Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) are both unmitigated disasters. Witless managed $700,000 on Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with a meager $2M. The well-reviewed Charlie deserves better, but could only muster $600,000 on opening day, and it’ll crawl to just $1.8M for the frame.

U2-3D (National Geographic) has expanded to 686 locations with some success. The 3D concert film racked up $800,000 in Friday ticket sales, and this spectacular movie-going experience will finish the weekend in the Top 10 with an estimated $3.36M. Originally, I felt a $10,000-$12,000 PTA was possible, but, as it turns out, U2-3D is sharing many of those screens with Disney’s Hannah Montana. That will keep the Per Theatre in the $4,000-$5,000 range.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Vantage Point (Sony) – $7.5M – $2,382 PTA – 7.5M cume
2. Jumper (Fox) – $3.9M – $1,137 PTA – $47.4M cume
3. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $3.1M – $806 PTA -$34M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) – $2.9M – $1,169 PTA – $34.5M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $2.1M – $683 PTA – $48.2M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) – $1.7M – $766 PTA – $18.2M cume
7. NEW – Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) – $1.2M – $1,485 PTA – $1.2M cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $1.1M – $637 PTA – $127.3M cume
9. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $1M – $534 PTA -  $32.5M cume
10. U2-3D (National Geographic) – $800,000 – $1,166 – $4.6M cume
11. NEW – Witless Protection (Lionsgate) – $700,000 – $525 – $700,000 cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $675,000 – $481 PTA – $33.1M cume
13. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $650,000 – $342 PTA – $83.2M cume
14. NEW – Charlie Bartlett (MGM) – $600,000 – $535 PTA – $600,000 cume
15. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $490,000 – $358 – $71.9M cume
*Hannah Montana (Disney) – $300,000 – $489 PTA – $60.6M cume
*In Bruge (Focus) – $175,000 – $1,075 PTA – $2.1M cume
*NEW – The Signal (Magnolia) – $33,600 – $210 PTA – $33,600 cume
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $31,000 – $646 PTA – $360,000 cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $25,000 – $3,125 PTA -      $296,000 cume
*NEW – The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $14,000 – $2,333 PTA – $14,000
*NEW – Cover (Independent) – $9,800 – $700 PTA – $9,800 cume
*NEW – The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) – $5,800 – $2,900 PTA – $5,800 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Vantage Point (Sony) – $22.4M – $7,113 PTA – $22.4M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $13M – $3,379 PTA -$43.9M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) – $12.2M – $3,557 PTA – $55.7M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) – $8.2M – $3,306 PTA – $39.8M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $6.4M – $2,081 PTA – $52.5M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) – $5M – $2,252 PTA – $21.5M cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $4.07M – $2,357 PTA – $130.3M cume
8. NEW – Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) – $3.65M – $4,517 PTA – $3.65M cume
9. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $3.6M – $1,922 PTA -  $35.1M cume
10. U2-3D (National Geographic) – $3.36M – $4,898 – $7.2M cume
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $2.63M – $1,878 PTA – $35M cume
12. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $2.37M – $1,247 PTA – $84.9M cume
13. NEW – Witless Protection (Lionsgate) – $2M – $1,500 PTA – $2M  cume
14. NEW – Charlie Bartlett (MGM) – $1.8M – $1,604 PTA – $1.8M cume
15. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $1.71M – $1,255 PTA – $73.1M cume
*Hannah Montana (Disney) – $1.26M – $2,055 PTA – $61.6M cume
*In Bruge (Focus) – $665,000 – $4,080 PTA – $2.6M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $112,000 – $14,000 PTA -     $383,000 cume
*NEW – The Signal (Magnolia) – $100,000 – $625 PTA – $100,000
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $95,000 – $1,979 PTA – $425,000 cume
*NEW – The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $54,600 – $9,100 PTA – $54,600 cume
*NEW – Cover (Independent) – $29,000 – $2,071 PTA – $29,000 cume
*NEW – The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) – $21,000 – $10,500 PTA – $21,000 cume

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