Saw 4 PosterThe Saw franchise is alive and well, but Jigsaw may be showing his age. Saw IV (Lionsgate), which opened with a monstrous $14M+ on Friday, appears to have taken a bigger than expected Saturday drop. Whereas 2006’s Saw III fell about 20% from its opening day, the newest gruesome installment tailed off by 30% day-over-day. The Saturday haul is still a healthy $10.01M, but it’s now unlikely that Saw IV will challenge the franchise’s best-ever opening weekend ($33.6M for #3).

The other new wide release, Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista), starring Golden Globe winner Steve Carell and Oscar winner Juliette Binoche, has proved to be a nice change of pace for moviegoers fatigued by depressing fare. Dan added $4.7M on Saturday, a nice 14% bump, and I now anticipate that Peter Hedges’ follow-up to Pieces of April may reach $14.1M for a very solid opening weekend.

It’s very close for 3rd, but Sony vampire holdover 30 Days of Night should edge Disney’s long-running The Game Plan, despite a likely Sunday matinee increase. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) will round out the weekend top 5, climbing past $47M domestic.

In the PTA race, Sidney Lumet’s Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) will win easily with a 3-day PTA of $35,774 culled from 2 New York City locations. After Dark’s Wristcutter’s: A Love Story is a distant 2nd at $10,480.

Meanwhile, new release Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) has met with low approval ratings. On just 7 screens, the Jonathan Demme-directed doc managed only $1,534, which bodes poorly for both expansion and Oscar contention.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – $10.01M – $3,145 PTA – $24.3M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista)) – $4.7M – $2,448 PTA – $8.8M cume
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – $2.87M – $860 PTA – $75.5M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) – $2.59M – $1,366 PTA – $45.7M cume
5. 30 Days of Night (Sony) – $2.55M – $895 PTA – $25.4M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) – $2.18M – $845 PTA – $27.4M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) – $1.61M – $945 PTA – $10.2M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – $1.47M – $525 PTA – $9.2M cume
9. We Own the Night (Sony) – $1.41M- $587 PTA – $24.1M cume
10. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – $1.39M – $2,447 PTA – $68.1M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) – $1.23M – $548 PTA – $8.8M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $691,200 – $345 PTA – $34.6M cume
13. Across the Universe (Sony) – $660,000 – $685 PTA – $18.8M cume
14. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) – $648,000 – $406 PTA – $13.5M cume
15. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – $638,450 – $915 PTA – $5.5M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – $612,500 – $931 PTA – $8.4M cume
*NEW – Bella (Roadside Attractions) – $466,200 – $2,825 PTA – $886,200 cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) – $350,000 – $1,182 PTA – $1M cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $288,200 – $252 PTA – $2.6M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) – $201,500 – $1,409 PTA – $2.6M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) – $162,500 – $553 PTA – $2.7M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $129,750 – $530 PTA – $318.6M cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) – $28,898 – $1,927 PTA – $171,195 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – $28,627 – $14,314 PTA – $48,646 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) – $18,898 – $756 PTA – $35,923 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – $16,250 – $4,063 PTA – $90,363 cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) – $13,295 – $782 PTA – $36,217 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) – $11,797 – $302 PTA – $74,177 cume
*NEW – Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) – $4,644 – $663 PTA – $7,392 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) – $3,978 – $796 PTA – $7,186 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) – $2,716 – $2,716 PTA – $5,734 cume
*Finishing the Game (IFC Films) – $3,609 – $722 PTA – $43,980 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) – $2,404 – $401 PTA – $4,198 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) – $2,357 – $589 PTA – $4,389 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – $31.3M – $9,839 PTA – $31.3M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – $14.1M – $7,386 PTA – $14.1M cume
3. 30 Days of Night (Sony) – $6.39M – $2,723 PTA – $27M cume
4. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – $6.21M – $1,861 PTA – $77M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) – $5.64M – $2,975 PTA – $47.2M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) – $5.13M – $1,986 PTA – $28.8M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) – $4M – $2,339 PTA – $11.4M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – $3.46M – $1,231 PTA – $10M cume
9. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – $3.41M – $6,054 PTA – $69.1M cume
10. We Own the Night (Sony) – $3.37M- $1,403 PTA – $25M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) – $3.07M – $1,367 PTA – $9.7M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.63M – $818 PTA – $35M cume
13. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – $1.61M – $2,319 PTA – $5.98M cume
14. Across the Universe (Sony) – $1.6M – $1,666 PTA – $19.2M cume
15. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) – $1.52M – $955 PTA – $13.9M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – $1.5M – $2,290 PTA – $8.8M cume
*NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – $1.22M – $7,405 PTA – $1.22M cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) – $871,500 – $2,944 PTA – $1.2M cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $695,530 – $609 PTA – $2.8M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) – $462,475 – $3,234 PTA – $2.8M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) – $406,250 – $1,382 PTA – $2.8M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $299,468 – $1,222 PTA – $318.727M cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) – $79,762 – $5,317 PTA – $192,869 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – $71,548 – $35,744 PTA – $71,548 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) – $49,151 – $1,966 PTA – $49,151 cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) – $45,789 – $2,693 PTA – $45,789 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – $41,921 – $10,480 PTA – $102,714 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) – $30,682 – $787 PTA – $82,435 cume
*Finishing the Game (IFC Films) – $13,813 – $2,763 PTA – $46,506
*NEW – Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) – $10,736 – $1,534 PTA – $10,736 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) – $10,169 – $2,034 PTA – $10,169 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) – $7,717 – $7,717 PTA – $7,717 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) – $6,086 – $1,522 PTA – $6,086 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) – $5,929 – $988 PTA – $5,929 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $14,314 PTA
2. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations – $4,063 PTA
3. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations – $3,145 PTA
4. NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – 165 locations – $2,825 PTA
5. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location – $2,716 PTA
6. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations – $2,477 PTA
7. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations – $2,448 PTA
8. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations – $1,927 PTA
9. Lust, Caution (Focus) – 143 locations – $1,409 PTA
10. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married (Lionsgate) – 1,897 locations – $1,366 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $35,744 PTA
2. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations – $10,480 PTA
3. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations – $9,839 PTA
4. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location – $7,717 PTA
5. NEW – Bella (IDP Films) – 165 locations – $7,405 PTA
6. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations – $7,386 PTA
7. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations – $6,054 PTA
8. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations – $5,317 PTA
9. Lust, Caution (Focus) – 143 locations – $3,234 PTA
10. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married (Lionsgate) – 1,897 locations – $2,975 PTA

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