Fool's Gold

5 years ago, Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson teamed up for the romantic comedy How to Lose A Guy in 10 Days with a $7.96M Friday and a $23.7M opening weekend. Their new movie together, Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros), is enjoying virtually the same success. The tepidly-reviewed date flick has opened with an estimated $7.81M on opening day, and will apparently sail to a $22.65M by Monday morning.

For McConnaughey, Fool’s Gold will likely mark his all-time 3rd best opening weekend.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY OPENINGS
1. Failure to Launch – $24.1M opening
2. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days – $23.7M opening
3. Fool’s Gold – $22.65M opening (estimate)
4. Contact – $20.5M opening
5. U-571 – $19.5M opening

Meanwhile, it’s the all-time 2nd best opening of Hudson’s career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 KATE HUDSON OPENINGS
1. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days – $23.7M opening
2. Fool’s Gold – $22.65M opening (estimate)
3. You, Me and Dupree – $21.5M opening
4. The Skeleton Key – $16M opening
5. Raising Helen – $10.9M opening

As I reported in my Weekend Tracking column published Thursday, the new Martin Lawrence movie Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) never seemed to connect with moviegoers in industry tracking, but it will finish the weekend dramatically below even lowered Hollywood expectations. On the heels of 2 of his most successful openings, Big Momma’s House 2 and Wild Hogs, hopes were originally high for Roscoe Jenkins, but the comedy managed only $4.65M on its opening day, and it will manage only an anticipated $14.1M for the weekend. That would make it only all-time 10th-best Lawrence opening.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MARTIN LAWRENCE OPENINGS
1. Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening
2. Wild Hogs – $39.6M opening
3. Big Momma’s House 2 – $27.7M opening
4. Big Momma’s House – $25.6M opening
5. Open Season – $23.6M opening
6. Life – $20.4M opening
7. Blue Streak – - $19.2M opening
8. Bad Boys – $15.5M opening
9. National Security – $14.3M opening
10. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins – $14.1M opening (estimate)

The 3D sensation Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds (Disney), originally promoted as a 1-week event, tailed off dramatically on its 2nd Friday, but still added an estimated $2.7M. For the weekend, the concert film, at only 687 locations, should capture another $11M in predominantly tween business for a Per Theatre Average of just over $16K. Hannah should wrap the weekend with a new cume of just under $54M.

The Katherine Heigl romantic comedy 27 Dresses (Fox) continues to hold strongly with another $1.9M on Friday and a likely $6.5M weekend. That makes it #5 for the day, but #4 for the weekend. The Eye (Lionsgate) starring Jessica Alba generated $2M on its 2nd Friday (#4), and it’s headed for a 5th-place weekend finish with $6M or so.

Among other new releases, In Bruge (Focus) starring Colin Farrell is faring best. On 28 screens, it delivered a $4,387 Per Theatre Average on its opening day, and the comedy should finish the weekend with about $437,000 for a PTA of $15,600.

Both Vince Vaughn and Paris Hilton have added mega-flops to their film resumes. Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show doc from Picturehouse opened at 962 locations, and averaged only $150 in tickets sold per location on Friday. Based on an $8 ticket price, that’s only 19 tickets at each theatre where the movie is showing. Wild West will limp to an estimated weekend of $433,000 or $450 per location.

Vaughn’s misguided vanity project, however, looks like a blockbuster compared to Paris Hilton’s Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing). Debuting on 111 screens, it could only muster $76 per location on its opening day. That means that, on average, 10 people purchased a ticket to see this comic disaster at each theatre with the misfortune of having booked it. Hottie will sell only an anticipated $23,000 during the 3-day weekend for a $207 Per Theatre Average. That’s about 26 ticket buyers per location for Friday-Sunday.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $7.81M – $2,500 PTA – $7.81M cume
2. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $4.65M – $1,900 PTA – $4.65M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds (Disney) – $2.7M – $3,930 PTA – $45.5M cume
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) – $2M – $810 PTA – $16.9M cume
5. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $1.9M – $669 PTA – $61.5M cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $1.6M – $689 PTA – $113.5M cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $1.47M – $536 PTA     $71,193,013
8. Meet the Spartans (Fox) – $1.17M – $480 PTA – $31M cume
9. Rambo (Lionsgate) – $1.15M – $423 PTA – $33.6M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $1.05M – $648 PTA – $23.7M cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) – $975,000 – $455 PTA – $21.82M cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) – $800,000 – $394 PTA     – $74M cume
*Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show (Picturehouse) – $144,300 – $150 PTA – $144,300 cume
*In Bruges (Focus Features) – $122,836 – $4,387 PTA – $122,836 cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $12,418 – $1,774 PTA – $12,418 cume
*Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) – $8,436 – $76 PTA – $8,436 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $22.65M – $7,248 PTA – $22.65M cume
2. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $14.1M – $5,912 PTA – $14.1M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds (Disney) – $11M – $16,012 PTA – $53.8M cume
4. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $6.5M – $2,288 PTA – $66.1M cume
5. The Eye (Lionsgate) – $6M – $2,429 PTA – $20.8M cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $5.28M – $2,275 PTA – $117.1M cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $4.94M – $1,795 PTA – $74.6M cume
8. Rambo (Lionsgate) – $3.73M – $1,376 PTA – $36.1M cume
9. Meet the Spartans (Fox) – $3.64M – $1,489 PTA – $33.4M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $3.51M – $2,171 PTA – $26.2M cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) – $3.07M – $1,433 PTA – $23.9M cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) – $2.48M – $1,222 PTA – $75.6M cume
*In Bruges (Focus Features) – $437,000 – $15,607 PTA – $437,000
*Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show (Picturehouse)     $433,000 – $450 PTA – $433,000 cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $47,000 – $6,714 PTA – $47,000 cume
*Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) – $23,000 – $207 PTA – $23,000 cume

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