Cloverfield

First off, with Cloverfield (Paramount) and 27 Dresses (Fox) opening huge, the movie industry is off to a spectacular 2008 start. In the first 21 days of January 2007, the total domestic box office recorded was $508.2M. By the end of business Monday (1/21), the overall business will be at an estimated $600M. That’s 15% better than the first 21 days of 2007.

It’s no surprise that Cloverfield suffered a 10% drop from its meteoric $16.25M Friday. In fact, many were expecting a steeper drop. My Early Saturday Estimate is that the J.J. Abrams-produced monster flick scared up $15.07M, which is the all-time 2nd-best single box office day for a January release topped only by its opening day number.

4-day holiday weekends are always a bit tricky to project, but I’m calling for an estimate $10.55M Sunday (down 30%) and $6.85M on MLK Day Monday (another 35% dip). If those numbers hold, Cloverfield will register an all-time best January 3-day with $42.3M and the all-time #1 MLK 4-day performance with $49.23M.

Fox’s 27 Dresses received a 14% Saturday boost to $8.72M, and I’m calling for a $6.71M Sunday and a $4.76M Monday. If I’ve successfully projected the performance of this rom-com over the next 2 days, the Katerine Heigl vehicle will turn in a $23.08M 3-day (10th-best for a January title) and the all-time 5th-best MLK 4-day holiday weekend.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 JANUARY 3-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield – $42.37M (estimate)
2. Star Wars – Special Edition – $35.9M
3. Black Hawk Down – $28.6M
4. Big Momma’s House 2 – $27.73M
5. Along Came Polly – $27.72M
6. Underworld: Evolution – $26.85M
7. Coach Carter – $24.18M
8. White Noise – $24.11M
9. Save the Last Dance – $23.4M
10. 27 Dresses – $23.08M (estimate)

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MARTIN LUTHER KING 4-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield – $49.23M (estimate)
2. Black Hawk Down – $33.6M
3. Along Came Polly – $32.4M
4. Coach Carter – $29.1M
5. 27 Dresses – $27.85M (estimate)
6. Save the Last Dance – $27.5M
7. Stomp the Yard – $25.8M
8. Snow Dogs – $23.7M
9. Kangaroo Jack – $21.8M
10. Racing Stripes – $18.8M

Rob Reiner’s The Bucket List (Warner Bros) is holding up exceedingly well with $6.72M on Saturday and a likely 4-day of $18.3M. Juno (Fox Searchlight) continued its winning streak with $4.22M Saturday, and it appears to be headed for a $12.25M long weekend. With the Oscar nominations due on Tuesday, and this quirky comedy having a real shot at nods for Best Picture, Best Actress – Ellen Page and Best Original Screenplay – Diablo Cody, there is still some upside here. Juno is at $87.3M domestic, and it will almost certainly reach the $100M mark. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) will finish #5 for the weekend with $10.56M, and that will like put Nic Cage’s adventure tale over the $200M threshold.
There are some domestic box office achievements to recognize. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) is targeting $9.33M for the MLK weekend, and it should exceed $200M domestic sometime on Tuesday. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) will rack up another $6.21M during this 4-day, and it is likely to pass $250M on Tuesday or Wednesday. Also, P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros) will have broken the $50M barrier by Monday night after a likely $2.32M long weekend.

The third new wide release is the all-girl caper comedy Mad Money, the first release from the new company Overture. It received a nice 39% Saturday bounce for $3.19M, and it will likely $9.28M for the Friday thru Monday period, #8 for the 4-day frame.

Woody Allen’s Cassandra’s Dream (Weinstein/MGM) is a disappointment generating just $173,000 on Saturday for a Per Location Average of $1,617. The latest film from the 21-time Oscar nominee should finish the 4-day with a soft $500,000 at its 107 locations for an estimated $4,673 PTA.

Meanwhile, Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House), produced and starring Pamela Anderson, is a huge disaster. The comedy, which co-stars the equally wooden Denise Richards, is playing on 16 screens, and it averaged only $156 Per Theatre on Saturday. By Monday night, it will have banked only $15,000 total or about $940 per location.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Cloverfield (Paramount) – $15.07M, $4,420 PTA [$31.82M cume]
2. NEW – 27 Dresses (Fox) – $8.72M, $2,853 PTA [$16.37M cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $2,306 PTA [$38.4M cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $4.22M, $1,666 PTA [$82.4M cume]
5. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $3.72M, $989 PTA [$195.6M cume]
6. First Sunday (Sony) – $3.36M, $1,521 PTA [$26.2M cume]
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) – $3.27M, $1,104 PTA [$194.2M cume]
8. NEW – Mad Money (Overture) – $3.19M, $1,294 PTA [$5.49M cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) – $2.29M, $909 PTA [$246.2M cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) – $2.04M, $1,581 PTA [$30.4M cume]
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $1.32M, $3,394 PTA [$7.1M cume]
12. Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything (Universal) -$1.23M, $924 PTA [$6.6M cume]
13. One Missed Call (Warner Bros) – $1.2M, $624 PTA [$23.6M cume]
14. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.18M, $787 PTA [$47.3M cume]
15. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) – $1.01M, $752 PTA [$62.4M cume]
16. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) – $840,000 , $506 PTA [$37M cume]
17. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros) – $825,000, $507 PTA [$49.9M cume]
18. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) – $609,000, $596 PTA [$27.4M cume]
19. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $570,000, $697 PTA [$48.2M cume]
20. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) – $475,000, $677 PTA [$4.6M cume]
*The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) – $470,000, $776 PTA [$12.3M cume]
*Enchanted (Disney) – $460,000, $600 PTA [$123.4M cume]
*The Golden Compass (New Line) – $190,000, $559 PTA [$68.1M cume]
*The Savages (Fox Searchlight) – $180,000, $1,029 PTA [$3.3M cume]
*NEW – Cassandra’s Dream (Weinstein/MGM) – $173,000, 1,617 PTA [$284,000 cume]
*The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) – $153,000, $1,430 PTA [$2.2M cume]
*Persepolis (Sony Classics) – $99,000, $5,824 PTA [$786,000 cume]
*NEW – Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) – $35,708, $ 1,984 PTA [$63,000 cume]
*NEW – Teeth (Roadside Attractions) – $10,438, $2,609 PTA [$19,600 cume]
*NEW – Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) – $5,107, $2,553 PTA [$7,809 cume]
*NEW – Summer Palace (Palm) – $3,907, $3,907 PTA [$5,985 cume]
*NEW – Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) – $3,821, $764 PTA [$5,171 cume]
*NEW – Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) – $2,496, $156 PTA [$12,096 cume]
*NEW – Day Zero (Glass Key) – $2,028, $2,028 PTA [$3,855 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Cloverfield (Paramount) – $49.23M, $14,4355 PTA [$49.23M cume]
2. NEW – 27 Dresses (Fox) – $27.85M, $9,112 PTA [$27.85M cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $18.3M, $6,281 PTA [$45.8M cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $12.25M, $4,838 PTA [$87.3M cume]
5. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $10.56M, $2,808 PTA [$200.4M cume]
6. First Sunday (Sony) – $9.73M, $4,397 PTA [$30.3M cume]
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) – $9.33M, $3,151 PTA [$198.7M cume]
8. NEW – Mad Money (Overture) – $9.28M, $3,759 PTA [$9.28M cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) – $6.21M, $2,460 PTA [$248.7M cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) – $5.75M, $4,454 PTA [$32.8M cume]
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $4.03M, $10,377 PTA [$9M cume]
12. Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything (Universal) -$3.6M, $2,692 PTA [$8.4M cume]
13. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.38M , $2,248 PTA [$48.8M cume]
14. One Missed Call (Warner Bros) – $3.28M , $1,707 PTA [$24.8M cume]
15. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) – $2.7M, $2,004 PTA [$63.5M cume]
16. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) – $2.34M , $1,413 PTA [$38.1M cume]
17. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros) – $2.32M , $1,428 PTA [$50.8M cume]
18. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) – $1.72M, $1,692 PTA [$28.1M cume]
19. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $1.54M, $1,892 PTA [$48.9M cume]
20. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) – $1.37M, $1,955 PTA [$5.2M cume]
*Enchanted (Disney) – $1.33M, $1,742 PTA [$124.1M cume]
*The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) – $1.32M , $2,181 PTA [$12.9M cume]
*The Golden Compass (New Line) – $537,000 , $1,579 PTA [$68.3M cume]
*NEW – Cassandra’s Dream (Weinstein/MGM) – $500,000, $4,673 PTA [$500,000 cume]
*The Savages (Fox Searchlight) – $495,000, $2,829 PTA [$3.6M cume]
*The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) – $430,000, $4,019 PTA [$2.4M cume]
*Persepolis (Sony Classics) – $288,000, $16,941 PTA [$910,000 cume]
*NEW – Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) – $106,344, $5,908 PTA [$106,344 cume]
*NEW – Teeth (Roadside Attractions) – $31,884, $7,971 PTA [$31,884 cume]
*NEW – Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) – $15,038, $940 PTA [$15,038 cume]
*NEW – Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) – $13,937, $6,968 PTA [$13,937 cume]
*NEW – Summer Palace (Palm) – $10,737, $10,737 PTA [$10,737 cume]
*NEW – Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) – $9,633, $1,927 PTA [$9,633 cume]
*NEW – Day Zero (Glass Key) – $6,289, $6,289 PTA [$6,289 cume]

Read More at Fantasy Moguls.

Cool Posts From Around the Web: