It ain’t 300. That’s one way to describe the opening day performance of Roland Emmerich’s 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros). With almost unanimously awful reviews (only 8% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), the prehistoric epic stumbled out of the gate with a disappointing estimated $11.55M Friday. That will likely translate to an underwhelming $33.14M, less than half of the $70.8M posted by last March’s Warner Bros sensation directed by Zack Snyder. 10,000 B.C. will also rank behind 3 previous Emmerich outings.

10,000 B.C. has very strong Total Awareness of 83%, compared to a nearly-identical 82% for 300 last year, but the Emmerich-directed prehistoric epic has better Definite Interest 57%-52%, although 300 scored better with Males Under 25 (78%-57%) and Males 25 Plus (59%-49%). The 2 films have identical 24% First Choice numbers at the same stage of their marketing cycles. 300 went off with a considerably stronger First Choice with Males Under 25 (49%-37%), but younger women are more interested in 10,000 B.C. (11%-7%).
One of the major considerations here is that 10,000 B.C. is rated PG-13 compared to 300’s strong R. Also women seem more open to watching wooly mammoths over [...]

There was no Saturday miracle for New Line’s Will Ferrell comedy Semi-Pro. The R-rated comedy managed only a 10% bump for an estimated $6.1M. The tepidly-reviewed comedy will finish its opening weekend with a disastrous $15.16M, as New Line goes out with a whimper, not a bang. Semi-Pro is only the 8th-best opening of Ferrell’s career (scroll down to my Friday report for a complete list of the All-Time Top 10 Live Action Will Ferrell Openings).
Vantage Point (Sony) had a very strong Saturday, up 64%, to finish in a virtual dead-heat for the daily crown with a likely $6.09M. The assassination thriller will wrap up the weekend with a very [...]

Will Ferrell’s Semi-Pro has tanked, ending a disastrous week for New Line. Not only did the studio cease business as a full-fledged studio on Thursday, now its 70’s-style basketball comedy managed only $5M on Friday, and it is likely headed for a meager $14.3M for the weekend. That would make Semi-Pro only the 9th-best opening of Farrell’s career.

The new 1970’s-style basketball comedy Semi-Pro (New Line) appears to be the equivalent of a slam-dunk at America’s box offices this weekend. The past few years have featured other Will Ferrell vehicles set in variety of sports, including Kicking & Screaming ($20.1M opening) about soccer, Talladega Nights ($47M opening) set in the high-stakes world of NASCAR and Blades of Glory ($33M opening) with a focus on figure skating. Now, the former SNL star has turned his attentions to professional basketball.

Sony may not have a serious Oscar contender at tomorrow night’s 80th Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre, but they still have a big winner this weekend. Vantage Point, either an homage or a knock-off of Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon, received a nice 22% Saturday bounce from its opening day, adding another $9.76M. The Oscar telecast makes Sunday tougher-than-usual to project, but I’m calling for a 38% drop. That would give the Pete Travis-directed assassination thriller a far better than expected $23.8M weekend.
The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), was up over 100% from Friday, and the family fantasy film delivered a $6.18M Saturday. That puts the $100M-budgeted franchise-wannabe on target for a [...]

Critics have been generally unkind to Vantage Point, the Pete Travis-directed film, with many, describing it as an Akira Kurosawa Rashomon ripoff, but that hasn’t kept moviegoers away. With an all-star cast, including Oscar winners William Hurt and Forest Whitaker, Matthew Fox from TV’s Lost, and former Academy Award nominees Dennis Quaid and Sigourney Weaver, this assassination thriller has exceeded industry expectations with a powerful $7.5M opening day, and it is headed for an estimated $22.4M opening weekend.
Vantage Point has overcome soft industry tracking (I forecasted just $16M in my Weekend Tracking column) and taken advantage of a weekend with no serious competition to absolutely swamp the field. In fact, [...]

An odd mix of films arrive in theatres for Oscar weekend. The big title is clearly Vantage Point (Sony), opening on 3,000+ screens, but also New Line delivers Michael Gondry’s Be Kind Rewind, starring Jack Black and Mos Def, at 800 or so locations, Lionsgate dumps an alleged comedy called Witless Protection on about 1,300 screens, MGM trots out the long-delayed Charlie Bartlett on 1,100+ and National Geographic expands the spectacular U2-3D at 678 3D-equipped houses.
Despite it’s a-list cast, including Dennis Quaid, Oscar winners Forest Whitaker and William Hurt, Matthew Fox from TV’s Lost and Sigourney Weaver, Vantage Point hasn’t really popped in industry tracking. It’s a densely-plotted assassination thriller, [...]

Doug Liman’s Jumper (Fox) received a nice 27% Saturday surge, adding just over $11M for a new 3-day cume of $26.37M. With a projected $8M or so on Sunday and another $4.19M on President’s Day, the tepidly-reviewed Hayden Christensen sci-fi action movie will finish with a 5-day of $38.63M, more than enough to win the competitive frame.
Disney’s Step Up to the Streets grabbed another $7.43M on Saturday, and it will finish the Valentine’s Day-thru-President’s Day 5-day period with just over $28M and 5-day PTA of $11,372 per location. The news was even better for Paramount’s The Spiderwick Chronicles with a monstrous 81% Saturday increase. The well-reviewed and expensive family fantasy [...]

Jumper has leapt to an excellent $8.21M on Friday, and it should bound to a solid $34.47M for the Valentine’s Day through President’s Day 5-day box office frame. After finishing in a virtual dead heat with Disney’s Step Up to the Streets on Thursday, Doug Liman’s sci-fi adventure pic overwhelmed the competition on Friday. Meanwhile, Step Up 2 received a slight Thursday-to-Friday bump dancing to a $6.25M 2nd day. The low budget sequel to the 2006 surprise hit should reach $28.45M for the 5-day for an anticipated weekend-best PTA of $11,518 per location.
The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), the well-reviewed family fantasy movie at over 3,800 locations, has recovered from a disappointing [...]

Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) appears to have edged Fox’s big budget Jumper on Thursday, although technically, it’s a bit too close ro call the race definitively. The urban dance sequel has averaged an estimated $2,500 per location on its opening day for what looks to be a $6.175M total. The big budget sci fi/adventure flick starring Hayden Christensen and Samuel L. Jackson meanwhile has grabbed an estimated $6.03M Valentine’s Thursday for a softer $1,775 or so per screen.
The unusual Valentine’s Day kickoff to a 5-day weekend that includes President’s Day has provided a perfect opportunity for Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) to jump-start its 2nd week as the Matthew [...]

The 3-day estimate for Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) I released Friday night (see below) was dead-on, but I underestimated the Saturday surge for Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal). The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson romatic comedy received a 23% Saturday bump for an estimated day 2 take of $9.4M. Gold will finish the weekend with $22.42M, making it the all-time 3rd-best McConaughey opening and the all-time 2nd-best Hudson opening.
The Martin Lawrence comedy vehicle Roscoe Jenkins, got a terrific 55% Saturday bump for a better-than-expected $7.67M Saturday. I’m revising my Friday 3-day estimate of $14.1M to a stronger $16.68M opening weekend, but it’s still only the all-time 8th-best opening in Lawrence’s career.
Hannah Montana/Miley [...]

5 years ago, Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson teamed up for the romantic comedy How to Lose A Guy in 10 Days with a $7.96M Friday and a $23.7M opening weekend. Their new movie together, Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros), is enjoying virtually the same success. The tepidly-reviewed date flick has opened with an estimated $7.81M on opening day, and will apparently sail to a $22.65M by Monday morning.

Meet the Spartans (Fox) has pulled off the upset weekend win with a likely $18.58M 3-day, holding off Sly Stallone’s disappointing Rambo (Lionsgate), which should finish the frame with $17.28M. Heading to the Super Bowl in Phoenix tomorrow, so no time for in depth analysis, but the rough numbers are below.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Meet the Spartans (Fox) - $7.79M - $2,991 PTA - $14.45M cume
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $6.74M - $2,454 PTA - $13.23M cume
3. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $5.83M - $1,897 PTA - $41.7M cume
4. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $5.71M - $1,675 - $61.3M cume
5. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $4.86M - $1,670 PTA - $55M [...]

I’m getting ready to jet off to Phoenix for Super Bowl 42, where I will be covering the game for ESPN, so I’m doing a “bare bones” version of my normal weekend estimates.
Meet the Spartans (Fox) has apparently won the day Friday with an estimated $6.5M compared to Rambo’s opening day of $6M, but my projection is that the Lionsgate Stallone sequel will play a bit stronger with Males 25 Plus on this football-free Saturday and Sunday. My projection is that the poorly reviewed Rambo will manage to win the 3-day with about $17.4M compared to $17.1M or so for Spartans.
Cloverfield (Paramount) has absolutely “fallen apart” in its 2nd weekend. [...]