Evan Almighty may have been #1 at the Box Office this weekend with $32 million, but even at a very good $8,900 per screen average, it was not #1 in that category. /Film has already posted a story about the #1 per screen movie of the weekend, Michael Moore’s documentary, Sicko which had an incredible $70,000 per screen average (in that it made $70,000 on one screen). But I want to look at what was #2 per screen this weekend. No, it wasn’t Evan Almighty or the other big opening film 1408. No, it wasn’t another big blockbuster like Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. It was a small independent film that I mentioned in my Box Office Predictions article last week called Colma: The Musical and it made $9,000 on its one screen.
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There are potentially two big movies opening this week. Last week’s #1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer made an astounding $58 million, so it has a chance to do very well again in its second week. Will either of the new movies pass it by? Read on to find out:
1. Evan Almighty. The answer is that one of them will. Bruce Almighty was a huge hit. It made $67 million its first weekend on its way to a total Box Office of $242 million. Will the sequel do as well? I think it has a chance. Right now, Will Farrell has passed Jim Carey as the most bankable comedy star in Hollywood. But after the huge success of The 40 Year Old Virgin, as well as his starring role in NBC’s The Office, Steve Carrel has a chance to challenge Farrell down the line. He will certainly get a big boost from Evan Almighty which will be a huge hit and will get off to a great start with $50 million.
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Last week’s box office results were interesting. Ocean’s Thirteen easily took the top spot with $36 million. That is less than both of its predecessors made, but still a ton of money considering that Ocean’s Twelve was disappointing in the eyes of a lot of fans (even with a higher opening weekend, Ocean’s Twelve would go on to gross nearly $60 million less than Ocean’s Eleven). But clearly that didn’t effect the outlook for the third installment. Pirates 3 continued to do well bringing its total up to $253 million. Knocked Up continued its impressive early run with nearly $20 million its second weekend. The surprise for me was that Surf’s Up only made $17 million. Clearly, Sony’s recent animated films (Open Season, Monster House) haven’t been nearly as successful as Pixar’s (Cars, The Incredibles) or Dreamworks’ (Shrek the Third, Madagascar), but they have had better openings than this. Could it be from a saturation of animated films (or from the fact that there just was a penguin based cartoon Happy Feet last year)? Time will tell. And time will tell how this weekend’s Box Office goes. Also, I will tell:
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Well, I had a very good week last week. I knew that Pirates 3 would fall short of the record breaking weekend of Spidey 3 and in fact I had it at $160 million through Monday which only over shot the total by $7 million which is pretty good. I under shot Shrek the Third’s second weekend but was only $1 million off the total for Spider-Man 3. I was right with Bug to come in 4th, but was way over the total. I was also right that 28 Weeks Later would make $3 million, but I had it coming in 5th. Instead, Waitress on only 510 screens made $4 million to take that spot. This week there are several new movies opening, four in wide release. Will any of them be able to topple Pirates? Read on to find out:
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I had a very good week last week. I was right on the top 3, and was close in their totals. I over shot Shrek the Third a bit, but while I had it at $130 million it made $123 which is very close. Spider-Man 3 did a little better than I thought it would in its third week. I was less than $1 million away from the total for 28 Weeks Later. I had Georgia Rule and Disturbia switched at #4 and #5, but I was almost right on for their totals. Now we get the third and final of the May big 3. Once again, the question remains. Not will Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End be #1? The real question is whether it will pass Spider-Man 3’s record breaking weekend. Read on to find out:
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After two weeks of easily winning the Box Office race, Spider-Man 3 finally faces some competition this week with the release of the second of three #3s in May, Shrek the Third. With only one new film opening in wide release, it should be an easy week to pick the top 5. But, the total amount brought in by each movie is the hard part. Can Shrek the Third eclipse Spider-Man 3 for the highest opening 3-day weekend total? How much more will Spider-Man 3 make now that it has real competition? Read on to find out:
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In September 2005, I wrote a Op / Ed piece on /Film in response to the reports that Spider-Man 3 would have three villains. I was very worried at the time about the movie based on what I had heard. As it turns out, much of what I worried about came true. Obviously at nearly $150 million in one weekend, the producers shouldn’t be worried about how the movie is doing at the Box Office. But it has gotten a lot of poor reviews, and it seems like most fans are at least somewhat disappointed in how it turned out. I was disappointed, but not surprised. Read on to see what I had to say in my original article from September 2005:
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After taking some time off from my predictions, I see now that I was very rusty in my first week back last week. I had one of my worst (if not the worst) week in doing these predictions. But that is in the past now. Everything was screwed up because nobody wanted to spend their movie theater money in April. Everyone has been eagerly awaiting May and its triumvirate of trilogies. Well, we are finally here, the first weekend in May. This week should be much easier to predict as only two new movies are opening in wide release, and only one of those matters.
1. Spider-Man 3. In the past, I have tried to stay away from the phrase, “no brainer” when making these predictions, because I don’t want the task to look easy. But I would have to be the best b.s. artist of all time if I could sell a reader that this wasn’t the easiest pick for #1 in the nearly year and a half that I’ve been doing these predictions on Slashfilm. That being said, the trick isn’t so much picking Spider-Man 3 as #1. The real trick is picking a dollar figure for how much the movie will make in its opening weekend. Slashfilm has had stories about tracking the ticket sales and that all indications are that the movie is going to make over $100 million. But there have been some bad reviews of the film showing up. Will that keep some movie goers away? I doubt it. It won’t do quite as well as the first Spider-Man, but it will come close with $110 million.
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Well, after a bit of a hiatus, the Box Office Predictions are back. This is the time of year when the Box Office really heats up. We are just one week away from May and the start of the Summer movie season. That being said, there is still one week to go. So far, Disturbia has ruled the Box Office for two weeks in a row. This week, there are four new movies opening to challenge it. Which one (if any) will claim the top spot? Read on to find out:
1. Next. The Nicholas Cage thriller seems like an obvious pick for #1 spot at the Box Office this week. For one thing, there really isn’t a lot of good competition. While Disturbia has been #1 two weeks in a row, last week it only made $13 million which was down 41% from its opening week total. If it loses a similar share of its audience, then it has little chance of keeping the top spot. So then we look at the new movies opening up and Next clearly has the most commercial appeal. Cage is coming off of Ghost Rider which did a very impressive $45 million its opening weekend on the way to a $115 million total. Next also appears to be an interesting sci-fi thriller which should appeal to fans. While it won’t do nearly as well as Ghost Rider, Next will still do well with $25 million, easily coming in #1.
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Well, it has been a few weeks since my last set of predictions. Personal reason have kept me from being able to write lately, but now I am back, and at the right time. I don’t think I would have ever predicted that 300 would make so much money! I was amazed at that. But now, with three new movies opening in wide release, the question becomes, will anything surpass 300? Read on to find out:
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