When I first heard the hype of Snakes on a Plane, I predicted that it would make over $100 million at the box office. Most people predicted the film would make at least $30 million this past weekend, including our own box office profit Jon Mezzera. New Line's estimates were a lot more reasonable, expecting the film to make in the lower $20 million range. But Snakes failed to even meet that number. Sadly, the film wasn't even number one at the box office (Update: While the Sunday estimates projected Talladega Nights as the winner, the final Monday numbers have Snakes as the winner by just over $50,000). So the question becomes: Why did Snakes on a Plane fail to make big box office? It's a bit complicated, but I have the answer.

1. Movie studios still don't understand the Internet

New Line believed that the fan created internet buzz would be enough alone, when the fact of the matter is that the internet is just one of the crayons in the big Crayola box of marketing tools. You may remember a film called Blair Witch Project. You've probably come to believe that the movie succeeded because of it's innovative internet marketing.

It's a lie.

While the internet marketing for the film was an instrumental factor, the movie studio used all other marketing avenues to promote the movie. The commercials were everywhere, and the everyone was talking about it. I remember seeing the actors on late night talk shows. I remember seeing a huge Sci-Fi channel cross promotion mockumentary. Does anyone else remember this? Because according to the revisionist history books, it was a film that succeeded based entirely on it's internet marketing. What a crock.

2. Wide Release

New Line should have taken the lead of other cult breakout films and opened the movie in limited release, expanding it gradually. Snakes on a Plane plays incredibly well with a packed audience of screaming fans, and movies like the aforementioned Blair Witch Project also benefitted from such. This is how word of mouth is born.

3. Summer Release

New Line was foolish to believe that the film could be a big summer blockbuster, especially without the big money advertising. They should have released the movie when the kids were in college.

4. No Press Screenings

I know it doesn't seem like it now-a-days, but movie-goers still read reviews even if they do choose to ignore them. Surprisingly the movie reviews haven't been bad (We gave the film a 6.5 out of 10, which is very consistent with the rest of the reviews). Why was the movie studio so worried? Even bad publicity is good publicity. I mean, it's better than no publicity...

5. Awareness

Many people I've talked to didn't even know the movie came out this week. These people were outside of the target demographic. They had not seen any trailer or advertisements, and weren't even given the chance to become interested. Why was the studio playing mainly and only to their target demographic? Pimping the movie on G4 is akin to advertising the next Star Trek movie during Star Trek television shows. What's the point? Those people are going to see it not matter what.

Conclusion

The problem is that New Line thought they knew how to market this movie, but they really had no idea. It is a disaster of monstrous proportions. Imagine if Artisan Entertainment had chosen a wide release for Blair Witch, relying mostly on the internet marketing... Do you think it would still be considered the success it is considered today? I'm betting you wouldn't even recognize the name.

So Snakes will make it's money back, and the DVD money is gravy. But imagine how much they could have made if they had done it right?