execs_go_3d

You may have heard about Avatar. James Cameron’s 3D juggernaut has reportedly topped $2b globally as of this weekend, and seems poised to dominate the box office for weeks to come. 3D showings are sold out days in advance in major cities, and there’s every reason to believe that the film has at least another month’s worth of box-office fuel in the tank.

But there are only so many 3D screens to go around. So what happens when Disney releases the 3D Alice in Wonderland on March 5? Which movie gets the limited number of 3D screens?

The New York Times reports on the possible bottleneck faced by Fox and Disney. With at least 70% of Avatar’s revenue coming from 3D exhibition, Fox doesn’t want to lose a screen. But the IMAX chain has already promised most of its 179 domestic and 82 foreign 3D screens to Disney for Alice in Wonderland. If Alice doesn’t perform, Fox could get some of those back in a hurry. But if the interest in 3D ignited by Avatar turns into big money for Alice, will March 5 be the end of the line for Cameron’s film?

This situation is going to crop up again soon afterward, as Dreamworks releases How to Train Your Dragon in 3D on March 26. Warner Bros. and the 3D conversion of Clash of the Titans will be hot on that movie’s heels on April 2. What irony that studios, chasing extra revenue from 3D, could be hamstrung by competitors racing for the same brass ring?

We’ve seen these 3D bottlenecks before. Early in 2009 Coraline was bumped from 3D screens by The Jonas Brothers. But when that musical movie failed to do any big business, 3D screens were taken back by Coraline a couple weeks later. As studios rush 3D productions out the door there will be less and less opportunity for a film to reclaim screens. Within the next year there’s always going to be a new 3D release waiting in the wings every few weeks.

Within months we’re likely to see theater chains installing more 3D screens to accommodate the increased flow of 3D product (that word ‘product’ seeming so appropriate in this case) but how long will that take? RealD reportedly has 5,000 contracted screen installations, but is waiting for money to fulfill those contracts. Studios have been reluctant to help theater chains invest in 3D upgrades so far. Could that stance be reconsidered? The National Association of Theater Owners says that by the end of 2010 there will be 5,100 3D screens in the US, but that is still a small number if movies are going to be jostling up against one another competing for screens.

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  • Drift Marlo
    The only thing holding Avatar back right now is that, despite the 3D, it pretty damn predictable and, frankly, boring.
  • evilninjax
    They theatre owners will put on whichever they think will make the most money. If the Avatar momentum keeps up, they can't pull it, can they? Alice might displace it for one weekend, but Avatar back the next? That's how i see it.
  • topheavy
    i hope alice makes 2 mil in the theaters and pushes burton into early retirement. visionary gone hack
  • 77
    One way for Disney to make sure this doesn't happen to Tron Legacy is to support it with a strong marketing push and start securing theaters and presales during the Spring.

    As for Tron Legacy, there should definitely be a Super Bowl trailer. Am I the only person who sees the parallels of Prince of Persia to Pirates and The Sorcerer's Apprentice to National Treasure? Those movies don't need a Super Bowl ad because much of their audience has a short attention span and aren't movie buffs so putting out regular TV ads will be just fine, especially with the size of their built-in audience.

    Tron Legacy, on the other hand, can position itself as this year's Avatar. It has a powerful built-in cult audience that can help propel it the first weekend. The problem is, the first film is 28 years old.

    If this new Tron has the layers of spiritual elements and has the array of new visuals, I can imagine a trailer that would unveil that in a powerful way. You start off with a Walt Disney logo which evolves into a dark black background and dark turquoise circuitry. "Where's Kevin Flynn?" "60 Minutes" story with Katie Couric talking about the disappearance. Then, switch to Garrett Hedlund as Sam Flynn, talking to a girl probably, then having a business associate or FBI officer asking him if he knew what his father had worked on, and unveiling a piece of machinery to his son. Maybe spend the rest of the trailer introducing characters on the inside, then maybe have him cutting off a few lightcyclers and taking off his helmet. Cue a major cliffhanging CGI shot and the Tron Legacy logo.
  • Name
    Based on the 3D trailers showing before Avatar, the animated flicks didn't look all that bad. Alice on the other hand looked terrible. Alice showed every cheeseball 3D gimmick James Cameron wanted to avoid. Movies shot in 3D seem to look much better than those converted after completion. I don't believe Alice will perform well in 3D.
  • PizzaRoll
    /film.com please write an article about why Avatar had a lazy soulless boring unoriginal cliche story, lifeless boring 1 dimensional characters, such blatant heavy handed cliche themes, and cheesy retard George Lucas dialogue.
  • iec
    I've seen Avatar twice. That's enough. I'd like to see and hear about another movie now.
  • Matthew
    Avatar has had a long run. It has one month before Alice comes into cinemas and by that time it would mostly be done with its box office run.

    And Avatar has actually had the best 3D run of all movies. Unlike Coraline whose screens were given to Jonas Brothers 3D, Up screens were given to Ice Age whose screens were again given to G-Force, Christmas Carol's screens went to Avatar. And all this happened in the matter of a few weeks. Avatar by feb end would have had 2.5 months to itself. Pretty fair if you ask me
  • Are the movie theaters making the majority of the profits rather than studios since Avatar has been out 7 weeks now?
  • RainMan
    They're getting a bigger cut the longer they show it so if it's still selling out (like it is on the one 3D screen in my area) Disney may end up have to choose between a smaller number of 3D screens, or bumping it down the road. No way theaters will want to dump Avatar the weekend of the Oscars and then have to renegotiate terms if it wins best picture.
  • That same thing is happening right now in Venezuela. Toy Story 3D has been delayed a lot of time since the first days of january by the high demand for the Avatar 3D screenings. The main problem heres is that we only have 3 3D screens in my country.
  • V-lad
    Alice will do fine in 2d and real3d. Avatar requires 3d for enjoyment and IMAX is a big plus for it. This makes it easier to push Alice to 2d.
    Also, showing 3d trailers of Alice, dragons, toy story, shreck before Avatar does not seem to be a good idea - during the first 5 minutes of seeing Avatar in IMAX i was thinking how visually pathetic those trailers looked when compared to this movie. Though those should be much better in "story+dialogs" part...
  • ChowchillaCharlie
    Split the screens between them and just monitor the figures and adjust the ratio dynamically.

    win
  • mbellerbrock
    I have no confidence in Alice, it will bomb, and Avatar will be put back on the 3D screens. And will How to Train Your Dragon be any better? I doubt it.
  • ghost
    Watch Alice get pushed back now. Early March seemed like such a strange choice for that film anyway.
  • Wello
    I agree march seems like a weird date as well for that movie.
  • Max
    i dont really care about this "issue"... i think Avatar has made enough money to fuel Cameron's ego for another 10 years
  • That "ego" has been entertaining and pushing the envelope with landmark films for over 25 years. I say feed the fire.
  • Well this goes along with much of what was behind Cameron's push for 3D. In 2004 or whenever it was that Cameron was at the theatre conference imploring the big wigs to pony up the money and upgrade their projection systems to handle 3D they refused. So Cameron went out on a mission to force them otherwise. We should all be glad to see the creatives forcing the hands of the money men.
  • Aaron
    I guess in a perfect world the decision about screen allocation would be decided by the theater owners based on the success (or failure) of AVATAR vs. the estimated success of Alice in Wonderland. If AVATAR is still selling very well why switch it out?

    Of coarse this isn't a possibility and with the screen the studios demand wouldn't likely be possible.
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