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Box Office: Benjamin Button Targets $45.3M by Monday; Marley & Me Breaks Christmas Record

Posted on Thursday, December 25th, 2008 by Steve Mason

MARLEY & ME surprises with All-Time Christmas Day opening best $13.9M and $53.8M is possible for 4 days!; BENJAMIN BUTTON strong #2 with about $11.1M & targets $45.3M by Monday!; BEDTIME STORIES with $9.75M start; Cruise’s VALKERIE manages $7.35M!

Christmas Day moviegoers have opted for a lovable lab and the Oscar bona fides of David Fincher’s epic fantasy yarn The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) have been bolstered by a strong opening day. Meanwhile, Adam Sandler’s storytelling and a Hitler-chasing, eye patch-wearing Tom Cruise both connected with moviegoers while the dark graphic comic noir of Frank Miller is a dud.

The biggest box office gift under the Christmas tree belongs to Fox. Marley & Me, based on the tearjerker of a novel by John Grogan, has posted the all-time best Christmas Day opening with a stellar $13.9M, but the good news for Hollywood doesn’t stop there. Paramount’s David Fincher epic Benjamin Button appears to have posted the all-time #2 Christmas Day opening with $11.1M while Adam Sandler’s Bedtime Stories has notched the 5th-best with $10.75M. Even Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA), once thought to be a total disaster, has managed the all-time #11 opening for the movie-friendly holiday with an estimated $7.35M.

ALL-TIME BEST CHRISTMAS DAY OPENINGS
1. Marley & Me - $12.47M (projected)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $10.75M (projected)
3. Ali - $10.2M
4. Catch Me If You Can - $9.8M
5. Bedtime Stories - $9.75M (projected)
6. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem - $9.5M
7. Dreamgirls - $8.7M
8. Bedtime Stories - $8.42M (projected)
9. Patch Adams - $8M
10. Cheaper By the Dozen - $7.8M
11. Valkerie - $7.35M (projected)
12. The Talented Mr. Ripley - $6.3M

My Early 4-Day Estimate for Marley & Me is $53.79M, but I will be fascinated to see how word-of-mouth affects its holiday run. I am, personally, a great lover of dogs and am a big fan of Grogan’s novel. (I would argue that my dogs - a 10-year-old rat terrier named Hollis and a 2-year-old beagle Sophie - are worthy of their own novel and movie.) The book, however, reduced me to a blubbering puddle, and, although I haven’t seen the movie yet, I’ve been told that the ending is very tough-to-take. One of my regular studio contacts told me that they think Marley & Me should come with a warning label for parents. Something like, “This movie may induce uncontrollable sobbing among children and dog lovers of all ages.”

Are people in the mood for “a good cry?” Sometimes it’s just what people are looking for. Or, in these challenging economic times, are people seeking purely happy trips to the multiplex? I’m guessing that the word-of-mouth will be a little mixed along these emotional lines, and that could slightly dampen the movie’s performance. Still, I think it is very safe to project something in the $113M range for Marley & Me by the end of the 4-day New Year’s weekend. In a rough year, it will be only Fox’s second $100M grossing movie for 2008 joining Horton Hears a Who.

There is great news for Paramount and David Fincher on this Christmas Day. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a big hit. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this spiritual tale starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett will build on its $11.1M opening day at 2,988 locations. The screen count may be as high as 3,500 with Paramount securing multiple screens at many key locations for the 2 hour 48 minute epic. The film will likely manage about $45.35M in domestic ticket sales over the 4-day Christmas weekend.

Benjamin Button will do very steady business over the next 11 days, and the spectacularly-reviewed film will likely have $100M-$105M in the bank by the end of next weekend. It will continue to hold well through awards season with major nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. I strongly believe that this movie is headed for something in the $170M domestic range.

Only 2 of the last 11 Best Picture winners have failed to break through the $100M barrier, including last year’s Coen Brothers thriller No Country For Old Men.

BEST PICTURE WINNERS
2008 – No Country For Old Men - $74.2M
2007 – The Departed - $132.3M
2006 – Crash - $54.5M
2005 – Million Dollar Baby - $100.5M
2004 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $377M
2003 – Chicago - $170.6M
2002 – A Beautiful Mind - $170.7M
2001 – Gladiator - $187.7M
2000 – American Beauty - $130M
1999 – Shakespeare in Love - $100.3M
1998 – Titanic - $600.7M

Academy Awards voters, whether they admit it or not, love big blockbusters, and after last year’s terrible Oscar broadcast ratings, there will be a strong yet silent, push to recognize films that movie-goers all over the country have seen. Benjamin Button is now likely to fit the bill nicely. Wouldn’t an Oscar night showdown between The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and mega-hit The Dark Knight make for a spectacular Academy Awards storyline (although, there’s always a chance that Danny Boyle’s gutty, little indie Slumdog Millionaire could steal the big prize from the big budget studio blockbusters).

#3 Bedtime Stories, also starring Keri Russell, Guy Pearce and the irrepressible Russell Brand from Saving Sarah Marshall, could reach $43.94M in just 4 days. It’s a fine showing, although most experts (including yours truly) thought it would be the weekend’s big winner.. The opening for Sandler is right in line with expectations and on par with his recent hits, although it’s hard to compare a Christmas 4-day opening with a traditional 3-day weekend start.

Technically, the 3-day weekend opening (Friday-thru-Sunday) for Bedtime Stories will likely be along the order of $34.19M or so. Given that Christmas Day is taking a great deal of “steam” out of the picture, that compares favorably to July’s You Don’t Mess With the Zohan ($38.53M opening - $100M cume) and 2007’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.23M opening - $120M cume). Given that Bedtime Stories skews much younger and has family appeal, it should demonstrate great “playability” over the next 11 days, making up the holiday movie-going period. I am projecting that this picture will reach $95M-$100M by the end of next weekend.

Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA) has out-performed industry expectations, and its $7.35M opening day should translate to a 4-day of $29.72M, good for 4th place. Holdover Yes Man (Warner Bros) will round out the top 5 for the long holiday weekend. The Jim Carrey high concept comedy scored about $4.85M on Christmas Day, and the picture could add $20.2M by Monday for a 10-day cume of $47.62.

The only other new wide opening is Frank Miller’s The Spirit (Lionsgate). No Sin City magic here as the movie has stumbled out of the gates with about $3.15M. The 4-day could be a disappointing $13.64M.

I will have updates throughout the weekend including exclusive information about how specialty releases are faring in their expansions.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $13.9M, $3,994 PTA, $13.9M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.1M, $3,715 PTA, $11.1M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9.75M, $2,649 PTA, $9.75M cume
4. NEW – Valkerie (MGM/UA) - $7.35M, $2,711 PTA, $7.35M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $4.85M, $1,412 PTA, $32.27M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $3.8M, $1,378 PTA, $24.46M cume
7. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $3.15M, $1,255 PTA, $3.15M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $2.58M, $1,074 PTA, $55.39M cume
9. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $2.1M, $676 PTA, $18.8M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $2.06M, $821 PTA, $106.44M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.2M, $950 PTA, $2.89M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $955,000, $1,554 PTA $14.55M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $53.79M, $15,460 PTA, $53.79M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $45.35M, $15,179 PTA, $45.35M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $43.94M, $11,939 PTA, $43.94M cume
4. NEW – Valkerie (MGM/UA) - $29.72M, $10,964 PTA, $29.72M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $20.2M, $5,883 PTA, $47.62M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $15.34M, $5,563 PTA, $36M cume
7. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $13.64M, $5,438 PTA, $13.64M cume
8. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $13.03M, $4,194 PTA, $29.73M cume
9. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $10.43M, $4,344 PTA, $63.25M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $8.03M, $3,201 PTA, $112.41M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) - $6.6M, $5,215 PTA, $8.29M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.13M, $6,732 PTA $17.73M cume

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  • Nice to see 'Benjamin Button' starting strong, however I will stick my neck out and agree with Steve, by saying despite the reviews the film has been gathering (76% on RT is not poor by any stretch of the imagination, but when 'TCCOBB' has been acknowledged as a 'Best Picture Contender', then it just doesn't look as strong compared some of the other names thrown around) I think the interesting nature and the large fan-base that Fincher has garnered over the years will see the film bring back a relativity good haul financially. Hopefully.
  • BFFredo
    Just a small correction: Brand worked in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Saving Sarah Marshall may have been the porno version.
  • Benjamin Button is the type of movie that you need to see at the right time in your life. Namely a transitional period. I believe the film is far more effective that way. At least it was for me.
  • IronMatt, I whole-heartedly with you. I think that older people would appreciate Benjamin Button more than younger people.
  • Well, now that you mention it, I am a younger person. I'm going to be going to college soon and the film spoke to me in a way I never thought it would.
  • i'm glad to hear that... people are saying that young people won't appreciate Benjamin Button
  • Marie
    I'm going to see it with my daughter's family. I love Jen & have two labs so how can I not love it.
  • Brian Rodden
    How does Marley and Me beat Button? Are people retarded or do they love generic family comedies?
  • Chadams
    If anybody's noticed moviegoers' trends over the past couple of decades, it shouldn't come to anyone's surprise that broader, family fare like Marley & Me would come out on top, especially with Christmas becoming a larger movie-going day every year.

    My family took me to see Marley (though I would have rather been at Button). The old Hollywood adage of "never work with kids or animals" should be extended to say "unless you want to make some bank".

    I wouldn't call people "retarded" for wanting to or having to spend time with their family and wanting to see a movie at the same time. I made a sacrifice in not picking out the movie one day out of the year. It's just too obvious that something with a bouncing puppy is going to entice more people across more demographics to the theaters than Brad Pitt not lookin' like a hunk.

    And those who didn't make it into the packed theaters for Marley, probably had to make do with "Bedtime Stories" (which would've been as effective as going home and drilling holes into one's head).
  • my family and I went to see slumdog millionaire, not Marley and Me. I still think most American people are retarded.
  • When spending time with your family on Christmas, which did you honestly think was going to do better? A family comedy or a 3 hour long movie about Brad Pitt aging backwards?
  • well,like I said above my family and i saw slumdog on Christmas, and we enjoyed it a lot. It was a whole lot better than that dumb Marley and Me.
  • My point was that an uplifting family comedy is going to do better on Christmas then a bizarre 3 hour drama. Assuming otherwise is more retarded then labeling the American audience as such.
  • Nimbus 2001
    well at least you know what kind of person you are (angry), but you might want to change your name to "ANGRYRETARD"
    WOW! you read slashfilm and know that slumdog is a going to be a great movie (which it definitely was) and marley and me is just sooo beneath you...not every moviegoing experience has to involve seeing a best picture hopeful you retarded elitist snob
  • Kokushi
    Exactly, it shows that hollywood have people hypnotize, why in the hell will people watch the sandler crap movie instead of watching wall-e or any other children animation worth the time to see that the whole family can enjoy.
  • The biggest box office gift under the Christmas tree belongs to Fox. Marley & Me, based on the tearjerker of a novel by John Grogan, has posted the all-time best Christmas Day opening with a stellar $13.9M, its amazing..
  • Chadams
    Because the cheap laughs probably worked on many an impressionable child. I know it did for me when I had to drag my folks to crap like that in the mid-80s. (Though my nostalgic hindsight would unsuccessfully try to stick up for much of the crap that my parents had to endure back then.)
  • Marley
    GO JENNIFER ANISTON! I for one will not watch ANY movies with Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie, I won't waste my hard earn money.
  • september11th
    how are you talking if u r dead
  • Joe
    I never thought I could laugh at September 11th.

    But now I can!
  • Cerisier du Japon
    Marley, no offense to either Jennifer Aniston or Owen Wilson but the bulk of Marley & Me's success is do to a cute dog and a very popular book. The studio made a calculated and obviously wise decision to feature a cute labador puppy, sans the faces of Aniston or Wilson, on the bulk of the posters and billboards strewn across the country. Do Aniston and Owen have a potential #1 under their belts? Absolutely but so does Piper Perabo, the human star of Beverly Hills Chihauhua which also came in #1 its OW. The moral of this story is that cute dogs sell and if a cute dog belongs to a NY Times bestseller, all the better.

    That said, I'm very surpised and pleased to see Benjamin Button do so well. I feared the near three-hour run time would scare the public away but that seems not to be the case. A good box office run will only serve to help it's Oscar prospects. I'm looking forward to seeing this tomorrow.
  • yeah, Marley and Me looks so stupid. I never even heard of the book. I am not a fan of Aniston or Owen Wilson-- both are shitty actors. And i don't even like dogs, either.

    I was also pleased that Benjamin Button is doing well at #2.
  • wow you're a moron. Jennifer Aniston mostly makes SHITTY movies, while Brad Pitt and Jolie have done some stellar movies... Fight Club, anyone?
  • Andrew
    That shows only how ignorant you are. You don't choose a movie for good taste or quality!!! The Curious case of Benjamin Button and Changeling are excellent movies but you know JA fans are so stupid. Don't worry they can do without stupid people. go see Marlye 300 times a day and you'll be happy!!!
  • BEN E.
    Any way these BO stories could be shortened, maybe put the bulk of it behind a "continued after the jump" link. Also it seems mr mason cannot spell valkyrie.
  • Brad Pitt
    First of all: Steve Mason...while these two comments I'm about to say are not at all important in terms of substance, they are still something that are pretty irritating. First, you wrote "Valkerie" like at least 20 times in that post when the movie title is clearly spelled "Valkyrie." Second, and less importantly, it's Forgetting Sarah Marshall not Saving Sarah Marshall (though you are not the first to make that mistake, mixing it up with Saving Silverman, a similarly titled movie).
    Second: "Marley," from the above comment...what kind of an idiot are you? Writing off movies with Pitt or Jolie. Ever heard of Fight Club or, I don't know, the possible oscar winner this year that just came out today, Benjamin Button? Or any of Pitt's other stellar movies? Jolie's not the same kind of actor as Pitt in terms of the types of movies she makes, but she's still respectable. And I like Jennifer Aniston probably more than most people, but you can't say her work, for the most part, is actually "good." Why don't you leave the comments to people who know what they are talking about, even just a little bit.
  • wrongturn687
    Nice results for Benjamin Button and Valkayrie because I was rooting for them all the way, but what the hell happened with The Spirit. The adds were there even with the shitty false marketing reviews and also it's a comic book adaptation under Frank Miller and let's not mention the hot assembele cast of women. This was just too much of an easy sell yet it did no better than Transporter 3 which had a much smaller marketing campain and way less buzz.

    I think the internet bashing along with the awful reviews really screwed this movie from becoming any sort of success. :(
  • Chadams
    If the awful reviews were there to reinforce how awful this movie looked, then it's only for the better. Plus, I wouldn't say Frank Miller's name is any sort of surefire draw for comic geeks given that early previews did not get favorable reviews when they showed footage at last year's San Diego ComicCon. He's greener (no green-screen pun intended) than a lot of sci-fi/comic book genre film makers which didn't help him either.
  • moviefan09
    There's no way Benjamin Button will do the business you predict. Bad reviews from the L.A. Times, S.F. Chonicle, Village Voice, N.Y. Magazine, Boston Globe, Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times reflect the bad word of mouth that will hit this movie. I was greatly disappointed by this movie. A dull story, no character development, way too long running time. After the manufactured hype dies down, this movie's box office take will slow.
  • Fred
    Agree with moviefan. No way Ben Button will make these results. This "expert's" numbers are a laugh.
  • that's your opinion.
  • Val
    Marley and all of us, great movie I saw.. the best! Wish Jennifer and Owen it was a predictable winner and I loved it. Just like a post previously who won't see a film with Brad Pitt, I won't either. He's an over ego'd manic with a seriously sicko Angie, well, I won't go see any of their movies. Jennifer hasn't made a film, and Owen, too, that I haven't enjoyed. They make a serious difference and Aniston's films are always feel good and I feel good and warm when I leave them. Brad is simply ordinary and Jolie needs a gun to perpetuate her insanity. I love Jennifer and Owen and so does everyone else to make it the biggest Christmas opening ever! Congrats to them both
  • lmao, Val, you're such an idiot. Refusing to see a movie because of Brad Pitt? Wow, you're missing out a lot of great masterpiece films.

    Moron.
  • lmao, Val, you're such an idiot. Refusing to see a movie because of Brad Pitt? Wow, you're missing out a lot of great masterpiece films.
  • Andrew
    You are stuck on an old sopa opera called Jen and Brad. You're childish give it up. Go see the movies and then judge. You don't judge actors on their private life. That is ignorance!!!
  • Andrew
    I meant soap opera. sorry for the spelling.
  • KBillyRaDiO
    Look forward to seeing Benjamin Button tomorrow. However, it hasn't been spectacularly reviewed across the board, on rottentomatoes it sits at a 76 percent, not the strongest for a film that is being considered a best picture contender. I take it Steve really enjoyed the film, I hope to as well. Always been a fan of Fincher's work, I think Zodiac got royally snubbed last year.
  • Val
    Wow... 2 friends insisted on seeing Brad Pitt and Benji the old man movie and they hated it. They were bored and were going to leave a few times in the film but stayed all that time. They said it was a film about changing ages on Brad and a love story that was too long and a drag. Well I told them to see Marley and Me with Jennifer and Owen and they thought since Pitt was up for awards, they'd see Brad's movie. Now they agree with me, Brad's oversold and a drag and not the film to see. It's all about hype when we as a nation are all about animals and love when we're given the chance which is never often enough. Loved Marley and Jen!!
  • Val
    I loved Marley and Me and though I cried toward the end like everyone else, it is the best of all, and I'd go again to see it. Did I tell you I'lll never go to see or rent a Jolie or PItt film for I can't stand either of them. Brad's become a phoney when he's the same cheat Angie blames her dad for being and she shuns her fine dad and won't talk to him or share her children with him but she sleeps with a real slime cheater Brad. I love Jennifer Aniston and so did everyone else in the theatre. Interesting .. put her in another film and she'll get the audience Pitt cannot. No contest, Aniston is better than Pitt and not a phoney.
  • wow, Val, we get the point that you love Jennifer Aniston. Now shut up and go back to Perez Hilton for more celebrity gossip.

    Last time I checked, this is Slash Film, not a "I LOVE JENNIFER ANISTON" website.
  • I want to see Benjamin Button ASAP, but my wife is holding me ransom! I'm not allowed to see it without her, and she can't go to the cinema at the moment (7 months pregnant + 3 hour move = aching back plus 27% film missing due to toilet breaks...))
  • I want to see Benjamin Button ASAP, but my wife is holding me ransom! I'm not allowed to see it without her, and she can't go to the cinema at the moment (7 months pregnant + 3 hour move = aching back plus 27% film missing due to toilet breaks...) BE DAMNED if I'm waiting for DVD! Must convince her to either let me go or tough it out.
  • why tell her that you're going to see it? go see it without her, she doesn't have to know about it.
  • 790
    How much did Valkyre cost. Hahaha

    Huge bomb for Cruise.

    Great release date guys. Fricken brilliant.
  • Val
    movie fan is right on target with their opinion of Brad Pitt's movie. As for simple 'angry broomsick' who likes the write what make him feel good, hey, he's the moron. I read his puny double dipped posts to me proving he's simply angry and dumb. He's a dim bulb, a dull crayon in the box. The box office on Christmas proved Pitt can't beat Jen. He's all ego like 'angry broomstalk' with no substance, a phoney. He's living in the land of lies with Jolie and some of us are not impressed with them. By the way, I thought Mr & Mrs Smith wasn't good either, so that's why I won't see their films and I'm not missing anything. I always like every film with Aniston because her attitude is humble and honest and we like films she's in. You don't get it do you 'angry broomie' for you aren't among us? I live midst their zip codes so I know better than you what I like and so does the public. Marley and Me was the winner tor the paid audience .. too bad certified idiot ANGRY BROOMSTICK got stuck in his own dementia.
  • haha... wow, your posts only prove further what an idiot you are. LMAO, what the hell is this? A gossip blog? this is a film blog where we're talking about MOVIES, not celebrities.

    I don't care who you love or support. I just don't want to hear how great Jennifer Aniston is. Seriously, get over it and go back to Perez Hilton.
  • Andrew
    Val for the fact I didn't see Mr an Mrs Smith at movies but on TV. I never pay for that type of movie and I can wait and enjoy it for free on TV as I did. But that doesn't mean that and actor does not get better in choosing and that is what Brad Pitt is doing. The production of A mighty Heart was great and Benjamin Button as well. Give it up you're just an Aniston bugging fan. Go to Perex Hilton!!!!!
  • rjc
    this movie is wonderful. It's just like the book. I laughed all the way thru it and cried at the end. I recommend everyone go see this movie if your a dog lover. Even if your not it's still a good movie. I don't usually like jennifer Aniston in movies but she was great in this movie.Also loved Owen Wilson as usual.
  • Sar
    Oh, the fight between the JA-fans (and believers of the poor woman story she sold so great!) and the Brangelina-fans! How stupid! It's something funny because JA did all her advertisement based on her break up with Brad Pitt (can she say us something different than that? Obviously not!) Oh sorry, Miss JA is so a poor poor woman, I know! Btw. I'm a grown up woman and don't feel with her this way, so sorry! God forgive me this sin!
    Why this dog/horse movie was on Nr. 1 is just that families went with children over the holidays into the cinemas (look at the success from family-movies in the last years or children movies)! Surly not because Miss JA is a so talented actress, in my opinion she can do only three sorts of facial impressions and that reminds me much at that what she was doing at friends! But I'm sure the children were impressed by a sweet dog, maybe a sugar sweet story and voila Nr. 1!
    What I wanted to see in a cinema is a good story, a interesting movies, great actors and something I can use my brain! I'm not five that I want to see a dog in a movie!
  • Marley and Me is a box office success becuase it is a family move, 100% mainstream, family friendly, and looks like something light for Christmas. Most people aren't in the mood for a sad, melodramatic movie or war movie (Benjamin Button, Valkyrie).

    otherwise I agree with you... Jennifer Aniston can't act worth a shit.
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