Box Office: Day The Earth Stood Still Manages Only $12.5M Friday for a Possible $33.75M Opening

Posted on Saturday, December 13th, 2008 by Steve Mason

The world is not “standing still” for Fox’s remake of the 1951 Robert Wise-directed sci-fi classic opening in theaters this weekend. The Day the Earth Stood Still, starring Keanu Reeves, Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) and Jon Hamm (Mad Men), has gotten off to a decent start, but it is hardly the blockbuster that the studio was hoping for and needs. My Exclusive Early Friday Estimate is $12.5M with a Per Theatre Average of $3,511. That will likely equate to a decent-not-great $33.75M for opening weekend.

On this same calendar weekend last year, Warner Bros scored big with the end-of-the-world action flick I Am Legend, which grabbed a spectacular $77.2M 3-day. With Will Smith as the lead, the generally well-reviewed film finished with $256.4M domestic and $584M worldwide. It is very safe to say that Keanu Reeves is no Will Smith and Earth Stood Still is no I Am Legend. This movie was barely-screened for critics (24% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth is not likely to help its “playability.” My hunch is that Fox’s new sci-fi spectacular is headed for a total domestic gross in the $75M - $85M range.

It has been a very challenging year for Fox. The studio’s year started out on a high with the Katherine Heigl vehicle 27 Dresses, the respectably-performing Jumper ($80.1M) and mega-hit Horton Hears a Who released back in March. Powered by the voices of Jim Carrey, Steve Carell and Seth Rogen among others, Horton reached $154.5M in domestic box office. It has been all downhill from there.

Fox’s next 13 films released in 2008 have each failed to reach $100M. In fact only one title, What Happens in Vegas, has topped $80M. The studio’s expensive, quixotic Baz Luhrmann epic Australia is struggling in theatres right now (I am estimating $4.22M this weekend for a new cume of $37.82M), and it seems destined for a disappointing sub-$50M domestic performance.

Even with Marley & Me, based on the popular novel and set for a Christmas release, Fox is unlikely to reach $1 billion in domestic box office for 2008 (with a week of business of their holiday dog yarn, they will likely wrap the year with about $980M). After finishing #2 in market share in 2005 with $1.35 billion and #3 in 2006 with $1.39 billion, they may finish 6th among the “Big 6” studios for a second consecutive year, down about 3% year-over-year from 2007’s $1.01 billion.

Despite the so-so opening, The Day the Earth Stood Still becomes the all-time best non-Matrix opening for Keanu Reeves.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 KEANU REEVES OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7M opening ($281.5M cume)
2. The Matrix Revolutions - $48.4M opening ($281.5M cume)
3. The Day the Earth Stood Still - $33.75M (projected)
4. Bram Stoker’s Dracula - $30.5M opening ($82.5M cume)
5. Constantine - $29.7M opening ($75.9M cume)
6. The Matrix - $27.7M opening ($171.4M cume)
7. Something’s Gotta Give - $16M opening ($124.7M cume)
8. Speed - $14.4M opening ($121.2M cume)
9. The Lake House - $13.6M opening ($52.3M cume)
10. Street Kings - $12.4M opening ($26.4M cume)

2008 market share champion Warner Bros continues riding high with Four Christmases adding an estimated $4M on Friday, good for second place. The Vince Vaughn/Reese Witherspoon comedy should wrap the weekend with about $12.5M, only a 25% drop from last weekend, for a new cume of $87.2M. Despite bad-to-middling reviews, this one will top $100M domestic well-before Christmas Day.

Twilight (Summit) continues to out-perform even the rosiest of industry expectations. The film adaptation of Stephenie Meyer’s vampire novel has held much better than anyone could have expected, and it seized another $2.75M to start the weekend. By Monday, it will have banked another $7.95M, dipping 39% from last weekend, good for third place. With a remarkable total domestic gross of $150M, it still remains a mystery to me why Summit gave director Catherine Hardwicke her “walking papers” from the franchise this week.

At #4 for the weekend is Disney’s Bolt. The Walt Disney Animation Studios production coaxed another $1.7M or so in sales on Friday, and huge Saturday and Sunday matinee surges should lead to a $7.1M frame for a new cume of $88.48M. After dropping just 28% this weekend, the John Travolta/Miley Cyrus voiced Bolt will be challenged by Universal’s animated The Tale of Despereaux for the family audience starting next Friday.

Australia and Quantum of Solace (Sony) are battling for fifth place, but I am giving the edge to Baz’s Nicole Kidman/Hugh Jackman teaming. Solace may have won Friday with about $1.35M or so, but Australia should edge the new Bond with a possible $4.22M for the 3-day.

The new, wide release Nothing But the Holidays (Overture) appears to have managed only a seventh place finish with an estimated $1.25M opening day, which should translate to a very soft $3.5M 3-day start. Holidays, a Latino-flavored Christmas movie featuring Debra Messing from Will & Grace along with John Leguizamo, Freddy Rodriguez, Alfred Molina, Luis Guzman and Elizabeth Pena, debuted with mixed reviews (49% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and it has never quite gained enough marketing traction with moviegoers.

The other wide release is the animated Delgo, distributed by Freestyle Releasing. This one has been savaged by critics (13% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and it probably should have gone straight-to-video. Delgo managed an unimaginably bad $130,000 on opening day and will finish the weekend with as little as $400,000. If that number holds, the Per Theatre Average will be a miniscule $185.

STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $12.5M, $3,511 PTA, $12.5M cume
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $4M, $1,130 PTA, $78.7M cume
3. Twilight (Summit) - $2.75M, $754 PTA, $144.84M cume
4. Bolt (Disney) - $1.7M, $543 PTA, $83M cume
5. Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $1.35M, $512 PTA, $154.73M cume
6. Australia (Fox) - $1.3M, $481PTA, $34.89M cume
7. NEW - Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) - $1.25M, $748 PTA, $1.25M cume
8. Milk (Focus) - $925,000, $2,820 PTA, $5.91M cume
9. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) - $850,000, $335 PTA, $27.87M cume
10. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $800,000, $289 PTA, $167.55M cume
11. Role Models (Universal) - $670,000, $506 PTA, $63.25M
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $650,000, $3,846 PTA, $6.52M cume
*NEW - Delgo (Freestyle) - $130,000, $60 PTA, $130,000 cume

STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $33.75M, $9,480 PTA, $33.75M cume
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $12.5M, $3,531 PTA, $87.2M cume
3. Twilight (Summit) - $7.95M, $2,179 PTA, $150M cume
4. Bolt (Disney) - $7.1M, $2,266 PTA, $88.48M cume
5. Australia (Fox) - $4.22M, $1,563 PTA, $37.82M cume
6. Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $4.18M, $1,588 PTA, $157.56M cume
7. NEW - Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) - $3.5M, $2,095 PTA, $3.5M cume
8. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.4M, $1,228 PTA, $170.15M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $3.37M, $10,293 PTA, $8.36M cume
10. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) - $2.65M, $1,044 PTA, $29.67M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $2.4M, $14,213 PTA, $8.27M cume
12. Role Models (Universal) - $1.97M, $1,492 PTA, $64.56M cume
*NEW - Delgo (Freestyle) - $400,000, $185 PTA, $400,000 cume

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  • Asdf
    what a horrible year for Fox
  • marz
    it would be a miracle on 42nd street (a little Christmas humor in there)if this movie dug them out the hole even a little bit.any big budget movie does well the first weekend until word of mouth about how bad the movie is starts to circulate.then its all downhill from there.i was looking for a little more from this movie.more devastation,destruction, and wow.some parts were cool but...i dont know,maybe i was asking for too much...and will smiths son,as cute as the kid is,and,does have some acting skills...he was a bit whiny for me.if u wanted to see this movie,by all means see it.dont let me derail you because half the time when i read critics reviews about movies they dont like,if i was going to see it,i still do.
  • You know you're in trouble when Ashton Kutcher is the star of your biggest movie of the year.
  • I'm not surprised, 'The Day The Earth Stood Still' was a terrible film ('08 version, not the original which I'm a huge fan of), which like most 'big budget' films today relied pretty much solely on slightly above-average CGI to garner and excite the masses.

    On Fox failing financially; "Fox’s next 13 films released in 2008 have each failed to reach $100M. In fact only one title, What Happens in Vegas, has topped $80M." Says it all really..
  • Maybe if Hollywood would stop making overly preachy propagandist-type films, more people might turn out to see them. People go to movies to be entertained, not lectured about how terrible the government is, or how destructive they are to the environment. Thankfully, pretty much every one of these "preachy" movies have failed this year, maybe someone will get the message.
  • William
    wall-e didn't

    if you consider that preachy
  • One of the few exceptions. And the reason Wall-E got away with it is probably due to the fact that it was an animated movie and attracted a lot of kids/families. There's probably also something to be said about the prominence of the preachy-message as well. In Wall-E I think it played more of a background than a main theme.
  • This and wolverine and sadly Dragon Ball could save fox. My brothers neighbor works for fox and during the strike he walk around in a robe all day. I hope the actors don't strike or get side deals. If there movies really matter to them cause I got to eat god damit .
  • Um, what were Fox expecting to happen with this, really?? I mean HONESTLY, surely they didn't sit there, watch this film and think "Fuck yes, this is awesome - release it and we'll make bucket loads...". They knew it would tank and they already have plans to recover, I'm sure.
  • @Tyler J: LOL! What? "Klaatu Barada Nikto....AHEMGHRHGH!" aren't muttered in the film at all? Bummer.
  • Woden
    Yep, not even "Klaatu Barada ACHOO", just some unintelligible BS.
  • Jim Flint
    Hollywood, here's a hint, if i want real information on real things, i will read and listen to real people that work in those industries, not a bunch of overpaid pretty boys and girls that get paid exorbitant amounts of money...TO PRETEND! Do you honestly think i am gonna get my information on pollution, technology, the environment, etc... from idiots that fly in private planes, own $20 million dollar mansions and drive honkin' big cars that they say we shouldn't. How much does it cost to provide energy for those $20,000 a night vacation resorts they fly to? Do us all a favor, shut the heck up, make movies that are fun again, and give it a freakin' rest. God, where's Cheech and Chong when ya need them?
    I've heard carbon footprinting, eco-friendly, green crap from them for so long, I want to go and light a natural gas field on fire with napalm and run it into a tire factory while dumping aerisols on it, just to give them the big ole' "sexual intercourse you".
  • The only enjoyable post-apocalyptic or near-apocalyptic movies have zombies in them.

    That or vampires. Keanu Reeves, as far as I can tell, is neither.
  • Don't forget Terminators...
  • I don't know, he might be a zombie judging by this movie.

    I'm glad it's not doing well, it's a horrible movie. I had to see it to write a review...
  • israelidude
    The movie was worse han I thought it would be….I was actually going to it with an open mind, but in the end, the movie wasn't able to transcend above the sum of it's (bad) parts (here there be spoilers) :
    1. The CGI is the first thing you notice that is FAR from being complete….it looked more like pre-viz in After Effects than an actual finished product. I could actually see the layers of effects on the sphere. GORT was a COMPLETE dissapointment!!! IIt looked completely unfinished CGI. there was no texture to it at all….also, at more than one scene it was clearly visible that the actors were shot on green screen and later poorly pasted onto a background…the colors and lighting were poorly matched…even my wife noticed all of this and she is not the effect movies type.

    2.GORT should've been a lot less of a homage to the 1951 movie than it was. It should've been something completly different altogather…the shape of it, I mean. the fact that it was the actual tool of destruction of the world and made of millions of all-eating insects, was not THAT creative.

    3.Keanu was, again, not that good….but I guess some actors will still be acknowledged even though they are VERY POOR at acting (aka nick cage).

    4.The structure was very fast moving into the oblivion scenario..rather than making Klaatu more aware that he would probably be attacked right off, he quickly thinks that we deserve annihilation…the only thing I liked was the decision to go for full destruction was chosen at a Mac'Donald's…that was hillariuos!!!!

    In general…that's it…..I have more to say but i'm writing this at work…so…gotta go work…

    cheeres.
  • Tyler J
    I agree with you, sir. The CGI airships were laughable. I think Keanu was alright in the emotionless role he usually plays.

    All in all, though, the movie was just VERY anti-climactic (oh, there are bugs eating everything...15 minutes later...they're all gone now). And there was 0 character development, unless you call the unbelievable way in which Klaatu changes.



    They didn't even say the magic words (Klaatu Barada Nikto)...it was just some garbled B.S.
  • tothechase
    The effects were poorly concieved AND executed. But so were many in "King Kong" by WETA. Their green screen backgrounds make the foregrounds look animated.
  • people are sick of remakes,
    people don't want to see depressing movies while we ARE living through another Depression,
    this is the Holidays season, people would rather watch happy movies.
    and Keanue Reeves isn't popular anymore
  • Rob
    I don't think people are sick or remakes. I think this was a dog of remake though.

    First, how many people in the target audience for this movie even saw the original? A movie like this is geared mostly to teenage boys and men in their early 20s. This group aren't usually into black and white films from the 50s.

    Second, the trailers sucked. You have a big budget sci-fi film and the trailer is underwhelming, it means that people will stay away in droves. Even a crappy big budget Sci-Fi movie should have enough footages to make at least the trailer exciting.

    Third, several remakes have done pretty well at the box office in the past year or two. Journey to the Center of the Earth did $101 million, I am Legend did $256 million, Halloween did $58 million, and Prom Night did $43.8 million (good for a low budget horror movie). The only remake I can remember in the last year or two that did poorly was The Heartbreak Kid and that was an abortion of a movie.
  • Rob
    I'm impressed. The movie did far better than I expected. $12.5 million opening day and a $33.75 million opening weekend is spectacular in my eyes. I expected this movie to finish far below expectations and end up with an opening weekend somewhere in the $25-30 million range. Horrible, boring marketing campaign with horrible reviews. If they finish anywhere about $30 million this weekend, Fox should consider it a victory.
  • tothechase
    After seeing this decent remake (and I love the original), I just want to comment on reviewers nationwide. They're making themselves irrellevant by letting their personal problems affect the accuracy of their reviews. In one review, the director was described as a "crappy director" just for doing a remake, while no examples of bad direction, past or present, were given. And another review said the movie was full of laughable lines from beginning to end, which was hardly true.

    Movie reviewers seem to now only be people venting personal anger in unprofessional ways and people who want to take credit for a movie's success or failure, whichever way the pre-release "buzz" is leaning. If it's positive buzz, like the overkill of "The Dark Knight," they want to be on the bandwagon, so they overhype some portion of the movie no one else could supposedly see but them. If it's an easy target, like this movie, they heap out their anger, as Ahab did on the whale.
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