I did a personal survey of studio sources today, and they were unanimous in saying that the release of Grand Theft Auto IV, the Xbox 360 and Sony Playstation 3 video game sensation released on Tuesday, will have absolutely no effect whatsoever on the box office performance of Iron Man (Paramount) this weekend.
As I wrote on Monday, this Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation is out-tracking last summer’s Dreamworks/Paramount smash Transformers, which is no small feat. Iron Man is not one of Marvel’s “top shelf” comic book heroes, and yet they have self-financed a film that is getting raves from critics (93% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes) and industry tracking shows Un-Aided Awareness, an excellent measure of buzz and anticipation, approaching 30%.
This is the first of 10 films from Marvel Studios. They only have licensing deals for Spider-Man (Sony) and The X-Men (Fox), but they have produced and financed Iron Man, and it’s now clear that the gamble will pay off in a big way. The timing is perfect, because on Monday, Marvel will announce earnings, and a huge Iron Man opening will likely give the company’s stock a short-term boost.
Paramount is playing the “by-the-book” downplay expectations game, and the number that seems to be kicking around over on Melrose is for a $75M opening, but with a 50%+ Definite Interest number and a 30%+ First Choice score, I see this movie flying well past that mark. I am, however, slightly scaling back my predictions for the Robert Downey, Jr. vehicle’s opening weekend.
When the movie opens Thursday night starting at 8pm, it will probably fall short of the $8M early preview screenings of Spider-Man 3 and Transformers. I’m dialing back to a $5M Thursday night take. Thursday will take a slight bite out of Iron Man’s Friday number, but $34M is likely, and then the picture should get a modest bump on Saturday to $35M. Add $28M on Sunday, and I’m expecting $102M for Thursday night thru Sunday. That could translate to a total domestic gross of $275-$300M.
Marvel stockholders should be very happy in the near-term, and numbers like that will certainly guarantee a couple of Iron Man sequels. The new studio will follow up with The Incredible Hulk in June, which doesn’t seem like a slam-dunk. Then will come projects featuring second-tier Marvel characters like Thor, Captain America and Nick Fury. These are much tougher sells, but success is certainly possible.
As for Sony’s female-skewing counter-programming, the Patrick Dempsey film Made of Honor, it will be an uphill climb. One studio exec compared its tracking to Warner Bros Christmas release P.S. I Love You. It’s clearly a notch better than that with what I’m hearing is a stronger Total Aware (70%-67%), Definite Interest (29%-24%) and First Choice (8%-5%). The Hilary Swank-Gerard Butler chick-flick opened with a 3-day of $6.7M and grabbed a mere $14.2M in its first 7 days, which included Christmas. Dempsey’s role on Grey’s Anatomy puts him right in the wheelhouse for Females 25 Plus, but it’s still difficult to see how Made to Honor gets much past $15M on opening weekend, and the rom-com’s ceiling is about $18M.
Here are my final predictions for the first weekend of the summer blockbuster season.
1. Iron Man (Paramount) - $97M (Fri-Sun) - $102M (Thur night-Sun)
2. Made of Honor (Sony) - $16.75M
3. Baby Mama (Universal) - $8.9M
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $6.8M
5. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $6.7M
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $6.25M
7. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $3M
8. 21 (Sony) - $2.7M
9. Prom Night (Sony) - $2.2M
10. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $1.6M
Read More at Fantasy Moguls.
May 1st, 2008 at 12:20 am
Well, if Iron Man does well Feige has said that will open the door for a Captain America film. He’s hinted at a possible announcement at San Diego Comicon.
May 1st, 2008 at 3:36 am
Tell me, if Captain America is a second tier Marvel character, then what is a first tier?
May 1st, 2008 at 5:13 am
Why are so many fansites so utterly obsessed with box office? It’s rarely a barometer of quality, and unless you’re somehow financially or creatively involved with the production(s), who cares that much? The only thing box office determines is whether we’ll see more or less of a certain type of movie, and even that remains completely unpredictable. Yet how much the movies make — the perceived “success” — has become such a bizarre fixation for so many.
May 1st, 2008 at 7:11 am
Prom Night 2.2 Mil really? I’d have to say 1.9M, and Horton Hears a Who will make 1.8M.
And I am surprised that Made of Honor will only take in 16.75M. I would say at least 20-22 Mil. Don’t underestimate the box office power of the Demp-Ster…..
May 1st, 2008 at 8:10 am
@ Matt:
First tier for Marvel would be Spider-Man and X-Men, historically their two biggest selling comic books as well as the most recognizable characters. I don’t really think they have anything else that would qualify as first tier other than maybe the Avengers/Ultimates, although since those titles are mostly filled with second tier characters it’s a bit of an odd beast.
May 1st, 2008 at 8:52 am
As a current college student I can assure you that GTA will affect Iron Man. Maybe not enough for studio execs to be worried, and maybe not enough to make Paramount wish they had released it on a different weekend, but its foolish to think that it will have absolutely no effect on ticket sales.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:42 am
GTA 4 is a piece of shit game.
The franchise is piece of shit.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:57 am
As a current college student I can assure you that GTA will not affect Iron Man. GTA came out monday night…if GTA had come out thursday or friday it would a bit, but we’ve gotten our fix…we love the game, but it’s not going to keep any of us away from Iron Man for 2 hours…especially since the people who *already* bought GTA are the same people who will be at midnight screenings…we’re not the type to wait around for a good thing.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:54 am
@ Matt
Thor.
May 1st, 2008 at 11:43 am
@Ambrose
I have already had people back out of seeing it with a large group for exactly this reason.
May 1st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
College students don’t pay for movies, they download them.
May 1st, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Unless the game financially strapped you, which at the price of the game it could do that to a college or high school kid, then passing so you can continue to play a game you’ve been playing for
4 days is lame.
Those who want to see Iron Man will go see it GTA or not. I know my brother is doing both.
May 1st, 2008 at 3:47 pm
haha @ JoJo’s comment
Did Niko rape your family?
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 am
re: Marvel discussion
There’s three tiers: primary, secondary, tertiary.
Primary: Spiderman, X-Men (as a whole), Wolverine (alone), Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Fantastic Four, Thor, Daredevil, Ghost Rider etc.
Secondary: characters like Nick Fury, Luke Cage, Doctor Strange, and any other recognizable name.
Tertiary: everyone else.
Obviously I am the authority on these such things after all… /sarcasm.
On the subject at hand, I just hope the Marvel films do well enough, long enough, for the sequels and subsequent releases to get past the “commercial” crust and into the real meat of these stories. I feel a comic book film adaptation bubble bursting is inevitable, though.
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I originally predicted a $60-$70 million dollar opening for Iron Man. Mid movie I upgraded my prediction to a $100 million dollar minimum. In my humble opinion Iron Man is the best first movie of any superhero franchise. The comedic genius of director Jon Favreau and the superb acting skills of Robert Downey Jr. combine for a potent force at the box office. And I write this opinion as a diehard Spiderman fan..
May 4th, 2008 at 9:07 am
in regards to Gah’s comment…..It doesn’t matter if Iron Man does well or not, the Captain America movies is still going to happen. It’s slated to for a 2009 release date.
I saw the Iron Man movie Saturday afternoon and I have to say that I enjoyed the movie. There were some parts that actually made me laugh and thae action and story line was pretty good as well. Should have no problem with the 60mil or above opening weekend. Oh and people……..if you can’t leave your house for a few hours to watch a movie because your playing GTA, You need professional help because your a idiot!