Box Office: Spartans Wins Friday; Rambo Should Win Weekend; Cloverfield Tanks!

By Steve Mason/Jan. 26, 2008 1:46 am EST

I'm getting ready to jet off to Phoenix for Super Bowl 42, where I will be covering the game for ESPN, so I'm doing a "bare bones" version of my normal weekend estimates.

Meet the Spartans (Fox) has apparently won the day Friday with an estimated $6.5M compared to Rambo's opening day of $6M, but my projection is that the Lionsgate Stallone sequel will play a bit stronger with Males 25 Plus on this football-free Saturday and Sunday. My projection is that the poorly reviewed Rambo will manage to win the 3-day with about $17.4M compared to $17.1M or so for Spartans.

Cloverfield (Paramount) has absolutely "fallen apart" in its 2nd weekend. It managed only $4.5M on Friday, and it'll lumber to a disappointing $13.1M for the weekend. That would be a horrifying 68% drop, and it'll be in a 3-day photo finish with 27 Dresses (Fox), which appears to be headed for $13M after a $4M Friday.

Sony's Untraceable has performed slightly above industry expectations with an estimated $3.5M on its opening day. While skewing strongly toward older females, this techno-thriller should capture $10.5M by Monday morning. Meanwhile, How She Move (Paramount Vantage) is a disaster with a meager $1M on Friday, and a likely $2.85M on opening weekend.

On the PTA front, IFC Films' 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, which failed to grab a foreign language Oscar nomination, debuted strongly at 2 locations on Friday with a $7,000 PTA. Cristian Mungiu's Romanian abortion drama, jilted by the Academy Awards' faulty foreign language film methodology, has a chance to score an impressive $25,000+ weekend PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. Meet the Spartans (Fox) – $6.5M – $2,495 PTA – $6.5M cume

2. Rambo (Lionsgate) – $6M – $2,181 PTA – $6M cume

3. Cloverfield (Paramount) – $4.5M – $1,560 – $55.8M cume

4. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $4M – $1,071 PTA – $35.4M cume

5. UntraceableÂ (Sony) – $3.5M – $1,478 PTA – $3.5M cume

6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $2.85M – $1,204 PTA – $92.7M cume

7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $2.53M – $1,043 PTA – $50M cume

8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $1.25M – $429 PTA – $202M cume

9. Mad Money (Overture) – $1.2M – $557 PTA – $11.8M cume

10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $1.15M – $466 PTA – $11M cume

11. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) – $1M – $653 PTA – $1M cume

12. Atonement (Focus) – $975,000 – $637 PTA – $34.9M cume

13. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) – $820,000 – $586 PTA – $200.4M cume

14. First Sunday (Sony) – $775,000 – $319 PTA – $31.9M cume

15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $590,000 – $393 PTA – $50.1M cume

16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) – $530,000 – $479 PTA – $249.9M cume

*4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) – $14,000 – $7,000 PTA – $14,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. Rambo (Lionsgate) – $17.4M – $6,325 PTA – $17.4M cume

2. Meet the Spartans (Fox) – $17.1M – $6,564 PTA – $17.1M cume

3. Cloverfield (Paramount) – $13.1M – $3,841 PTA – $64.6M cume

4. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $13M – $4,229 PTA – $44.7M cume

5. UntraceableÂ (Sony) – $10.5M – $4,434 PTA – $10.5M cume

6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $9.4M – $3,877 PTA – $99.2M cume

7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $8.85M – $3,038 PTA – $56.3M cume

8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $4.68M – $2,176 PTA – $205.4M cume

9. Mad Money (Overture) – $4.14M – $1,676 PTA – $14.8M cume

10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $4.08M – $4,613 PTA – $13.9M cume

11. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) – $3.77M – $1,552 PTA – $203.3M cume

12. Atonement (Focus) – $3.55M – $2,542 PTA – $37.5M cume

13. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) – $2.85M – $1,862 PTA – $2.85M cume

14. First Sunday (Sony) – $2.75M – $1,831 PTA – $33.9M cume

15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $2M – $1,812 PTA – $51.5M cume

16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) – $1.9M – $1,358 PTA – $251.3M cume

*4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) – $51,100 – $25,550 PTA – $51,100 cume