Vantage PointSony may not have a serious Oscar contender at tomorrow night’s 80th Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre, but they still have a big winner this weekend. Vantage Point, either an homage or a knock-off of Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon, received a nice 22% Saturday bounce from its opening day, adding another $9.76M. The Oscar telecast makes Sunday tougher-than-usual to project, but I’m calling for a 38% drop. That would give the Pete Travis-directed assassination thriller a far better than expected $23.8M weekend.

The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), was up over 100% from Friday, and the family fantasy film delivered a $6.18M Saturday. That puts the $100M-budgeted franchise-wannabe on target for a $13.3M 2nd weekend and a new cume of $44.2M by Monday morning.

Fox’s Jumper leapt to $5.66M on its 2nd Saturday, and it’ll finish #3 for the weekend with a likely $12.68M. Step Up 2 the Streets, Disney’s low budget urban dance sequel, posted another $4.29M today, and that should translate to a 4th-place finish with just over $10M for the frame. The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson rom-com Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) rounds out the Top 5 with $3.1M Saturday and an anticipated $6.99M for the weekend, putting the tepidly-reviewed film above the $50M mark in domestic sales.

I’ve had a tough time trying to figure out just how well U2-3D (National Geographic) has been performing this weekend. If you scroll down, you’ll see that last night, I projected $800,000 for Friday and $3.36M for the weekend. I overshot the film’s performance considerably.

National Geographic is a rookie distributor, and I’ve come to learn that they accepted partial schedules at many of the 686 Digital 3-D locations that opened the concert film yesterday. The majority of new playdates for U2-3D share the screen with Hannah Montana (Disney), and in some locales, Bono and friends are only getting 1 or 2 shows per day.

As a result, U2-3D only managed $315,000 on Friday, another $400,000 today, and it will finish with about $1M for the weekend. In fact, Hannah Montana has dramatically outpaced the older-skewing band’s effort with $810,000 Saturday and an estimated $1.73M for the 3-day. By the time Miley Cyrus steps onto the stage at the Kodak as a presenter, her Best of Both Worlds Concert movie will have banked about $61.4M domestic.

New releases Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) will finish the weekend at #12 and #13 respectively with the Larry the Cable Guy comedy limping to about $300,000 more in ticket sales.

In the PTA race, it appears that The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics), a big winner at the Israeli Film Academy Awards, will capture the crown with $126,000 or so for the weekend and about $15,750 per location. IFC Films’ The Duchess of Langeais will likely finish #2 with a weekend PTA of approximately $10,000, followed by the likely Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics), which debuted with an estimated $9,000+ 3-day PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Vantage Point (Sony) – $9.76M – $3,099 PTA – 17.76M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $6.18M – $1,606 PTA – $40.1M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) – $5.66M – $1,651 PTA – $53M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) – $4.29M – $1,732 PTA – $38.9M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $3.1M – $1,008 PTA – $51.2M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) – $2.36M – $1,065 PTA – $20.5M cume
7. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $2.07M – $1,109 PTA -  $34.6M cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M – $1.188 PTA – $129.4M cume
9. NEW – Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) – $1.66M – $2,059 PTA – $3.03M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $1.34M – $960 PTA – $34.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $1.23M – $650 PTA – $84.5M cume
12. NEW – Witless Protection (Lionsgate) – $700,000 – $525 – $700,000 cume
13. Hannah Montana (Disney) – $810,000 – $1,321 PTA – $61.4M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $790,000 – $578 – $72.7M cume
15. NEW – Charlie Bartlett (MGM) – $780,000 – $695 PTA – $1.41M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) – $400,000 – $583- $4.59M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) – $365,000 – $2,239 PTA – $2.57M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $58,000 – $7,250 PTA -      $354,000 cume
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $47,000 – $979 PTA – $408,000 cume
*NEW – The Signal (Magnolia) – $45,000 – $281 PTA – $79,000 cume
*NEW – The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $24,000 – $4,000 PTA – $38,000
*NEW – Cover (Independent) – $14,000 – $1,000 PTA – $24,000 cume
*NEW – The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) – $8,600 – $4,300 PTA – $14,400 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Vantage Point (Sony) – $23.81M – $7,562 PTA – $23.8M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $13.32M – $3,463 PTA -$44.2M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) – $12.68M – $3,700 PTA – $56.2M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) – $10.24M – $4,130 PTA – $41.8M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) – $6.99M – $2,276 PTA – $53.1M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) – $5.5M – $2,480 PTA – $22.1M cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $4.56M – $2,645 PTA – $130.8M cume
8. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $4.42M – $2,363 PTA -  $35.9M cume
9. NEW – Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) – $4.08M – $5,058 PTA – $4.08M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $3.03M – $2,162 PTA – $35.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $2.69M – $1,419 PTA – $85.2M cume
12. NEW – Witless Protection (Lionsgate) – $2.29M – $1,718 PTA – $2.29M  cume
13. NEW – Charlie Bartlett (MGM) – $1.88M – $1,678 PTA – $1.88M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $1.81M – $1,325 PTA – $73.2M cume
15. Hannah Montana (Disney) – $1.73M – $2,836 PTA – $62M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) – $1.01M – $1,485- $4.89M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) – $830,000 – $5,092 PTA – $2.8M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $126,000 – $15,750 PTA -     $397,000 cume
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $110,000 – $2,292 PTA – $440,000 cume
*NEW – The Signal (Magnolia) – $108,000 – $675 PTA – $108,000
*NEW – The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $55,000 – $9,167 PTA – $55,000 cume
*NEW – Cover (Independent) – $33, 000 – $2,357 PTA – $33,000 cume
*NEW – The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) – $20,000 – $10,000 PTA – $20,000 cume

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