Iron Man

After grabbing $5.2M in Thursday night advance screenings, Iron Man (Paramount) has soared to an estimated $35M on Friday. With near-perfect reviews, an A-list cast, including Robert Downey, Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow and Terrence Howard, and excellent word-of-mouth, this first film financed by Marvel Studios will likely power to a staggering $91M+ by Monday morning, and that’s a conservative estimate.

Paramount is on top of the world. This is the first of 4 guaranteed $100M blockbusters set for release this summer. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is 3 weeks away, followed by Kung Fu Panda on June 6, and Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder, again starring Robert Downey Jr., on August 15. This run of box office success will likely drive Paramount to a $1 billion dollar summer and make the Melrose gang Hollywood’s #1 grossing studio for a second consecutive year.

A $100M opening is still a distinct possibility for Iron Man. That $35M Friday apparently includes the portion of the $5.2M Thursday preview business that came after midnight. If the film can pull huge family audiences on Saturday, and come in with another $35M+, it will likely break the $100M barrier.

Billionaire Tony Stark and his alter ego are no match for last year’s May sequels Spider-Man 3, Pirates 3 and Shrek 3, which all topped $114M+ in their opening weekends. Still, Iron Man will likely go down as at least the 12th-best 3-day opening of all time and the 2nd-best opening ever for a non-sequel, trailing only the original Spider-Man. Plus Iron Man cracks the All-Time Top 10 Openings for Comic Book Adaptations at #4.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION OPENINGS
1. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
2. Spider-Man – $114.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
4. Iron Man – $91M (estimate)
5. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. 300 – $70.8M
8. Fantastic Four – $56M
9. X-Men – $54.4M
10. Superman Returns – $52.5M

Sony’s poorly-reviewed romantic comedy Made of Honor, starring Patrick Dempsey, has limped out of the starting gate with a disappointing $5.5 on opening day. With a projected weekend take of only $15.7M this film will not do much to burnish Dempsey’s big screen resume.

Holdover Baby Mama (Universal) added $3.5M Friday, and it should finish the frame with $10.3M or so, down 41%, but good enough for 3rd place. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) generated $1.7M Friday, and it will likely make $5.7M for the weekend, finishing 4th. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) managed just $2M on its 2nd Friday, and it is headed for a 3-day of $5.4M, representing a 64% drop.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Iron Man (Paramount) – $35M – $8,526 PTA – $35M cume
2. NEW – Made of Honor (Sony) – $5.5M – $2,015 PTA – $5.5M cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) – $3.5M – $1,374 PTA – $25.4M cume
4. NEW – Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $2M – $786 PTA – $21.2M cume
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $1.7M- $593 PTA – $40.3M cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $975,000 – $329 PTA – $41.8M cume
7. Prom Night (Sony) – $720,000 – $296 PTA – $39.6M cume
8. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $620,000 – $250 PTA – $40.4M cume
9. 21 (Sony) – $570,000 – $254 PTA – $77.5M cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) – $390,000 – $221 PTA – $14.2M cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $310,000 – $212 PTA – $148.7M cume
12. Deception (Fox) – $200,000 – $100 PTA – $3.3M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $123,000 – $946 PTA – $1M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $54,000 – $446 PTA – $665,000 cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) – $29,000 – $547 PTA – $153,000 cume
*NEW – Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) – $17,670 – $589 PTA – $17,670 cume
*NEW – Redbelt (Sony Classics) – $15,894 – $2,649 PTA – $15,894 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $12,000 – $1,500 PTA – $213,000 cume
*NEW – Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) – $9,290 – $1,858 PTA – $9,290 cume
*Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) – $6,000 – $600 PTA – $29,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – $3,852 – $3,852 PTA – $42,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $3,029 – $1,514 PTA – $113,000 cume
*NEW – Viva (Vagrant Films) – $2,716 – $2,716 PTA – $2,716 cume
*NEW – When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) – $2,027 – $2,027 PTA – $2,027 cume
*War Inc. (Independent) – $880 – $880 PTA – $17,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Iron Man (Paramount) – $91M – $22,168 PTA – $84M cume
2. NEW – Made of Honor (Sony) – $15.7M – $5,753PTA – $15.7M cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) – $10.5M – $4,121 PTA – $32.4M cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $5.7M- $1,987PTA – $44.3M cume
5. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $5.4M – $2,122 PTA – $24.6M cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $3.41M – $1,153 PTA – $44.3 cume
7. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $2.38M – $963 PTA – $42.1M cume
8. Prom Night (Sony) – $1.98M – $813 PTA – $40.9M cume
9. 21 (Sony) – $1.79M – $801 PTA – $78.7M cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) – $1.34M – $762 PTA – $15.1M cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $1.19M – $816 PTA – $149.6M cume
12. Deception (Fox) – $610,000 – $305 PTA – $3.7M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $535,000 – $4,115 PTA – $1.5M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $235,000 – $1,942 PTA – $846,000 cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) – $111,000 – $2,094 PTA – $235,000 cume
*NEW – Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) – $68,000 – $2,267 PTA – $68,000 cume
*NEW – Redbelt (Sony Classics) – $56,000 – $9,333 PTA – $56,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $46,000 – $5,750 PTA – $247,000 cume
*NEW – Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) – $34,000- $6,800 PTA – $34,000 cume
*Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) – $21,000 – $2,100 PTA – $44,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – $13,481- $13,481 PTA – $51,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $10,297 – $5,149 PTA – $120,000 cume
*NEW – Viva (Vagrant Films) – $8,148 – $8,148 PTA – $8,148 cume
*NEW – When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) – $6,081 – $6,081 PTA – $6,081 cume
*War Inc. (Independent) – $2,596 – $2,596 PTA – $19,000 cume

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