Horton Hears a Who

Horton Hears a Who (Fox) continued its box office roll Saturday, adding another $9.45M, but it was down 10% from its monstrous Good Friday. The CGI animated Dr. Suess adaptation should grab another $6.61M or so on Easter Sunday for a 3-day of $26.56M, giving Horton the all-time 4th-best Easter weekend box office performance.

ALL-TIME BEST EASTER WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PERFORMERS
1.Scary Movie – $40.2M
2. Panic Room – $30M
3. The Matrix – $27.7M
4. Horton Hears a Who – $26.56M (estimate)
5. Liar, Liar – $25.3M
6. Anger Management – $25M
7. Blades of Glory – $22.5M
8. Guess Who – $20.6M
9. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $20M
10. U-571 – $19.5M

My revised weekend projection of $26.56M is off slightly from the $28.15M I forecast Friday night, but Horton Hears a Who will have banked $87.93M by Monday morning, giving it the all-time 3rd-best 10-day gross for a movie opening in March.

ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR MOVIES OPENING IN MARCH
1. 300 – $129.1M
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $115.7M
3. Horton Hears a Who – $87.93M (estimate)
4. Ice Age – $87.2M
5. Wild Hogs – $77M

Also, its 10-day performance will be #12 all-time for animated films.

ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS
1. Shrek the Third – $203.3M
2. Shrek 2 – $184.8M
3. Finding Nemo – $144M
4. The Incredibles – $143.2M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $128M
6. Monsters Inc. – $122.1M
7. Cars – $117M
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $115.7M
9. Ratatouille – $109.5M
10. Madagascar – $100.3M
11. Happy Feet – $99.2M
12. Horton Hears a Who – $87.93M (estimate)
13. Shark Tale – $87.3M
14. Ice Age – $87.2M
15. Toy Story 2 – $80.4M

Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns was down 11% from its opening day for $7.29M, and the 5th feature film from the African American auteur will likely give him another $20M+ opening weekend. I’m anticipating $4.59M on Easter Sunday for Browns, completing a $20.09M opening weekend, which is solid, but #4 on his box office resume.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening
3. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening
4. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening (estimate)
5. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening

New releases Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) and Shutter (Fox) are in a dead heat for Saturday, but it looks as though the low budget horror flick will win the weekend. I expect Shutter to finish #3 with $10.63M, while the poorly-reviewed Owen Wilson vehicle written by Seth Rogen will manage only $10.12M. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) will be 5th for the weekend with $8.84M, pushing Roland Emmerich’s prehistoric epic past $76M domestic.

Under the Same Moon (Weinstein), the Audience Award winner at the 2007 Sundance Film Festival, continues to perform very well at its 266 locations with $935,000 on Saturday. The film, which features Ugly Betty’s America Ferrera in a small role, will finish the weekend with about $2.34M, which should be good enough for the top 10.

Here is how I think the 3-Day PTA scoreboard will look.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) – $14,000 PTA
2. Boarding Gate (Magnolia) – $12,000 PTA
3. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) – $10,018 PTA
4. The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $9,694 PTA
5. Love Songs (IFC Films) – $9,000 PTA
6. Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) – $8,532 PTA
7. Race (UTV Communications) – $7,292 PTA
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $6,707 PTA
9. The Grand (Anchor Bay) – $5,500 PTA
10. The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $4,426 PTA

And here are the Early Saturday and Revised 3-Day Estimates.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $9.45M – $2,386 PTA – $81.3M
2. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) – $7.29M – $3,638 PTA – $15.49M cume
3. NEW – Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) – $3.72M – $1,219 PTA – $7.77M cume
4. NEW – Shutter (Fox) – $3.67M – $1,334 PTA – $8.32M cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) – $3.44M – $996 PTA – $74M cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) -$1.76M – $1,096 PTA – $18.3M cume
7. Never Back Down (Summit) – $1.72M – $630 PTA – $15.5M
8. College Road Trip (Disney) – $1.67M – $650 PTA – $30.8M cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) – $1.54M – $729 PTA – $64.3M cume
10. NEW – Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) – $935,000 – $3,515 PTA – $2.34M
11. Doomsday (Universal) – $860,000 – $444 PTA – $8.3M cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) – $830,000 – $699 PTA – $22M cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) – $600,000 – $1,130 PTA – $7.1M cume
14. Semi Pro (New Line) – $470,000 – $411 PTA – $32M cume
15. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $400,000 – $326 PTA -$67.4M cume
*NEW – Race (UTV Communications) – $275,000 – $2,865 PTA – $500,000 cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $210,000 – $4,286 PTA – $1.6M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) – $205,000 – $718 PTA – $5.6M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $125,000 – $2,049 PTA – $1.6M cume
*No Country For Old Men (Miramax) – $100,000 – $437 PTA – $74M
*Funny Games (Warner Independent) – $95,000 – $328 PTA – $944,000 cume
*There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $85,000 – $379 PTA – $39.6M cume
*Married Life (Sony Classics) – $45,000 – $1,731 PTA – $293,000
*Paranoid Park (IFC Films) – $37,000 – $1,028 PTA – $239,000 cume
*NEW – The Hammer (International Film Circuit) – $32,000 – $1,600 PTA – $63,000 cume
*Snow Angels (Warner Independent) – $22,000 – $1,467 PTA – $91,000 cume
*CJ7 (Sony Classics) – $16,000 – $762 PTA – $150,000 cume
*NEW – Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) – $10,000 – $5,000 PTA – $22,000 cume
*NEW – Sleepwalking (Overture) – $9,000 – $130 PTA – $80,000 cume
*NEW – Love Songs (IFC Films) – $7,200 – $3,600 PTA – $13,200 cume
*NEW – Boarding Gate (Magnolia) – $4,952 – $4,952 PTA – $8,803 cume
*NEW – The Grand (Anchor Bay) – $4,128 – $2,064 PTA – $8,282 cume
*NEW – Irina Palm (Strand) – $1,414 – $1,414 PTA – $2,634 cume
*NEW – Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) – $1,122 – $1,122 PTA – $1,746 cume
*NEW – Shelter (Regent) – $1,069 – $1,069 PTA – $2,284 cume
*NEW – FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) – $703 – $703 PTA – $3,474 cume
*NEW – Kenny (Arcangelo) – $416 – $416 PTA – $678 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $26.56M – $6,707 PTA – $87.9M
2. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) – $20.09M – $10,018 PTA – $20.09M cume
3. NEW – Shutter (Fox) – $10.52M – $3,824 PTA – $10.52M cume
4. NEW – Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) – $10.12M – $3,313 PTA – $10.12M cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) – $8.84M – $2,561 PTA – $76.3M cume
6. Never Back Down (Summit) – $4.65M – $1,704 PTA – $16.6M
7. College Road Trip (Disney) – $4.5M – $1,748 PTA – $31.8M cume
8. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) -$4.23M – $2,625 PTA – $19.5M cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) – $3.68M – $1,737 PTA – $65.1M cume
10. NEW – Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) – $2.26M – $8,532 PTA – $3M
11. Doomsday (Universal) – $2.13M- $1,102 PTA – $8.8M cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) – $2.08M – $1,759 PTA – $22.6M cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) – $1.42M – $2,689 PTA – $7.4M cume
14. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $1.2M – $979 PTA -$67.7M cume
15. Semi Pro (New Line) – $1.18M – $1,037 PTA – $32.3M cume
*NEW – Race (UTV Communications) – $700,000 – $7,292 PTA – $679,000 cume
*In Bruges (Focus) – $495,000 – $2,292 PTA – $5.9M cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $475,000 – $9,694 PTA – $1.7M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) – $270,000 – $4,426 PTA – $1.6M cume
*No Country For Old Men (Miramax) – $240,000 – $1,048 PTA – $74.1M
*Funny Games (Warner Independent) – $235,000 – $810 PTA – $1M cume
*There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $210,000 – $938 PTA – $39.6M cume
*Married Life (Sony Classics) – $115,000 – $4,423 PTA – $324,000
*Paranoid Park (IFC Films) – $90,000 – $2,500 PTA – $265,000 cume
*NEW – The Hammer (International Film Circuit) – $83,000- $4,150 PTA – $83,000 cume
*Snow Angels (Warner Independent) – $50,000 – $3,333 PTA – $106,000 cume
*CJ7 (Sony Classics) – $42,000 – $2,000 PTA – $160,000 cume
*NEW – Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) – $28,000 – $14,000 PTA – $28,000 cume
*Sleepwalking (Overture) – $22,000 – $319 PTA – $86,000 cume
*NEW – Love Songs (IFC Films) – $18,000 – $9,000 PTA – $18,000 cume
*NEW – Boarding Gate (Magnolia) – $12,000 – $12,000 PTA – $12,000 cume
*NEW – The Grand (Anchor Bay) – $11,000 – $5,500 PTA – $11,000 cume
*NEW – FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) – $3,900 – $3,900 PTA – $3,900 cume
*NEW – Irina Palm (Strand) – $3,553 – $3,553 PTA – $3,553 cume
*NEW – Shelter (Regent) – $3,000- $3,000 PTA – $3,000 cume
*NEW – Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) – $2,419 – $2,419 PTA – $2,419 cume
*NEW – Kenny (Arcangelo) – $928 – $928 PTA – $928 cume

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