Posted on Friday, November 23rd, 2007 by Steve Mason
Since I literally went “over the river and through the woods” for Thanksgiving (I’m in Altoona, Pennsylvania), not a lot of analysis, but here are the numbers for Thursday. As usual, turkey day pushed moviegoing to a late afternoon-evening experience.
Let me preface these numbers and this analysis by stating that nobody in Hollywood, including most of my studio sources, are on holiday. I feel very good about these numbers, but there may be a slightly larger mrgin of error than my readers have become accustomed to.
Some things are certain. Enchanted (Disney) is box office royalty with a $50M+ opening. I’m projecting a 5-day of $55.48M after the Disney family film grabbed just over $8M on Wednesday and nearly $7M on Thursday. If the number holds, it’ll be the 2nd biggest Thanksgiving opening ever.
ALL TIME BIGGEST 5-DAY THANKSGIVING OPENINGS
1.Toy Story 2 – $80.1M
2. Enchanted – $55.48M (estimate)
3. Unbreakable – $46M
4. A Bug’s Life – $45.8M
5. 101 Dalmations – $45M
Oscar watchers should get accustomed to hearing the name of Amy Adams. Her perfect comic turn, combined with the “cha-ching” of box office cash registers, make her an inevitable lock for a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress – Comedy or Musical, and she’s just the type of fresh ingenue that Oscar voters will gravitate towards when filling out their ballots.
Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) is holding strongly, and I’m targeting $28.66M for the 5-day. I am of the belief that the PG13 rating plus the 3D and 3D IMAX will drive the Robert Zemeckis-directed movie to a slightly better multiple than Hitman (Fox). Still, the horribly-reviewed Timothy Olyphant video game adaptation has been solid with $4.25M on both Wednesday and Thursday.
The holiday family comedy This Christmas (Sony) is a surprise hit, although after the success of Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? makes it a little less surprising. There is an emerging market for films geared for urban and black audiences, which is good news for excellent actors like Idris Elba, Loretta Devine, Delroy Lindo, Chiwetel Ejiofor and many more. This Christmas appears to be headed for a likely 5-day of $25.26M.
Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Fred Claus (Warner Bros) will both enjoy a family movie surge for the holiday. Seinfeld’s Bee should top $16M and Fred will come in at right about $15M. The Mist(MGM/Weinstein) will manage no more than $12.85M over the long holiday weekend. It’s a mystery why the distributor would dump a horror film into the market for Thanksgiving as the genre has never really performed well on this weekend. Then again, everything’s a mystery of MGM/Weinstein.
August Rush (Warner Bros), the well-reviewed little movie from James Sheridan’s daughter Kirsten, is performing respectably. After $1.52M on Wednesday, it actually got a turkey day bounce to $1.92M. I’m targeting $12.4M for the 5-day weekend, and this gem could have a nice little run over the next few weeks.
Two other films are performing very well in limited release. The Coen Brothers’ No Country For Old Men(Miramax) expanded to 806 locations, and the Javier Bardem-as-assassin thriller will crack the top 10 for the long weekend with $10.73M. Meanwhile, Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) is an arthouse “monster.” From director Noah Baumbach (The Squid & the Whale), and starring his wife Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nicole Kidman nd Jack Black, Margot had blistering per theatre averages of $19,000 on Wednesday and $27,000 on Thursday. Despite being at just 35 locations, the black comedy will likely get past $4.5M with a 5-day PTA of $130,000+. This monstrous start for this concerto of family dysfunction will almost certainly make Noah Baumbach a lock in the Best Original Screenplay category at the Oscars, and Nicole Kidman’s performance edgy, prickly and downright unlikeable character will almost certainly grab at least a Golden Globe nomination, and she shouldn’t be counted out of the Oscar race.
The news was not as good for Todd Haynes’ Bob Dylan opus I’m Not There (MGM/Weinstein). It should generate a PTA of $5,451 over its 5-day run for a disappointing $708,000 take.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY THURSDAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) – $6.84 million – $1,835 PTA – $14.99 million cume
2. Hitman (20th Century Fox) – $4.25 million – $1,725 PTA – $8.5 million cume
3. This Christmas (Sony) – $4.01 million – $2,162 PTA – $6.8 million cume
4. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.69 million – $40.5 million cume
5. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.52 million – $721 PTA – $100.8 million cume
6. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) – $2.02 million – $838 PTA – $4 million cume
7. American Gangster (Universal) – $1.98 million – $710 PTA – $106.5 million cume
8. August Rush (Warner Bros.) – $1.92 million – $832 PTA million – $3.8 million cume
9. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) – $1.83 million – $511 PTA – $41.6 million cume
10. Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emproriu million (20th Century Fox) – $1.52 million – $482 PTA – $14.4 million cume
11. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) – $1.44 million – $1,798 PTA – $8.4 million cume
12. Dan in Real Life (Disney) – $740,000 – $487 PTA – $39.1 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 5-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) – $55.48 million – $14,875 PTA – $55.48 million cume
2. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $28.66 million – $8,9-8 PTA – $61.7 million cume
3. Hitman (20th Century Fox) – $27.2 million – $11,066 PTA – $27.2 million cume
4. This Christmas (Sony) – $26.42 million – $14,224 PTA – $26.42 million cume
5. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $16.43 million – $4,687 PTA – $112.5 million cume
6. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) – $14.9 million – $4,138 PTA – $52.8 million cume
7. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) – $12.85 million – $5,304 PTA – $12.85 million cume
8. August Rush (Warner Bros.) – $12.4 million – $5,371 PTA million – $12.4 million cume
9. American Gangster (Universal) – $12.36 million – $4,416 PTA – $115.4 million cume
10. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) – $10.7 million – $13,798 PTA – $11.7 million cume
11. Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emproriu million (20th Century Fox) – $10.44 million – $3,297 PTA – $14.4 million cume
12. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) – $4.58 million – $134,286 PTA – $4.79 million cume
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