Posted on Sunday, January 13th, 2008 by Steve Mason
Rob Reiner’s The Bucket List (Warner Bros) appears to have narrowly edged Sony’s First Sunday for a second day, although it’s a photo finish for Saturday. I’m estimating $8.12M for the oldster road movie versus $7.87M for the Ice Cube/Tracey Morgan comedy. Both films will likely come in above the 3-day targets I set for them on Friday night.
fter an anticipated 38% Sunday drop, I’m projecting that The Bucket List will finish the weekend with $19.56M, making it Rob Reiner’s best-ever opening, Jack Nicholson’s 4th-best and Morgan Freeman’s 7th-best. (For more details, scroll down and read my Friday Night report). Meanwhile, First Sunday will perform a bit softer on Sunday and finish with a better-than-expected $18.5M for the 3-day.
Juno (Fox Searchlight) added another $5.84M on Saturday good for 3rd place, and the multiple Golden Globe nominee will finish the weekend with $14M and a new domestic cume of $71.2M. National Treasure 2 (Disney) scooped up another $5.21M in loot, and the Nic Cage sequel will wrap up the 3-day with an estimated $11.39M and a total of $187.2M domestic. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) rounds out the top 5 for both Saturday ($4.35M) and for the weekend ($8.88M). By Monday morning, the CGI critters will have earned a couple hundred thousand dollars more than NT2 with $187.5M.
It was a tough weekend for the other 2 new wide releases. The Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything: A VeggieTales Movie (Universal) harvested $1.98M on Saturday, and it’s 3-day estimate stands at just $4.53M. International schlockmeister Uwe Boll’s new movie In the Name of the King (Freestyle) has fared even worse with a $1.03M take on Saturday and a meager $2.65M opening weekend.
The oddly anti-climactic Golden Globe winners will be announced tomorrow (Sunday, 1/13) at 6pm pacific at The Beverly Hilton. The cancellation of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s annual party is the highest profile casualty claimed so far by the WGA strike. This is a blow to the major studios, who refuse to budge in their negotiations with striking writers, but there are some unintended casualties of note.
There are 2 kinds of movies in the awards sweepstakes. There are the big budget studio projects that have already made back their budgets or finished their runs successfully finishing in the black. In this go-round, that includes films like American Gangster (Universal), Hairspray (New Line), Enchanted (Disney) and Michael Clayton (Warner Bros).
Then, there are the movies that have been counting on the highly-rated Golden Globes ceremony to help sell tickets. Winning is a bonus, but the reality is that the NBC telecast is, what amounts to, a 3 hour commercial for the movie business. Even a nomination on the Globes telecast has been a boon to specialty film in recent years. Last year, for example, pictures like Babel, Little Children, Notes On a Scandal, Volver and Venus all benefited from the attention that the HFPA provided.
The films that will be hurt most by the cancellation of the big show are probably Atonement (Focus), Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) and There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage). Atonement, which added $4.33M this weekend for a new domestic cume of $25.2M, is the sort of epic romance capable of riding awards season to $60M+, but with Keira Knightley and James McAvoy on the red carpet, the film will be handicapped. Johnny Depp will likely win Best Actor â€“ Comedy or Musical for Sweeney, but now, nobody will see his acceptance speech. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis and Blood.
Other specialty films that could have used some TV attention include The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax), The Savages (Paramount Vantage), The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM), The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage), The Orphanage (Picturehouse) and Persepolis (Sony Classics).
The Golden Globes remain a huge event for movie fans even sans red carpet, famous presenters and gushing acceptance speeches. Here are my picks.
BEST PICTURE â€“ DRAMA
Analysis: This is a 3-horse race with No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood as the other contenders. My gut says that Atonement’s international success ($38.4M overseas) will play a role along with the fact that No Country and Blood may split the male vote.
BEST ACTRESS â€“ DRAMA
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Analysis: This is Christie’s 3rd Globe nomination and first since Shampoo in 1975. She won the Oscar in 1965 for Darling, the same year she starred in the iconic Dr. Zhivago. There is an element of “lifetime achievement” here, but her heart-wrenching performance as an Alzheimer’s patient is the crowning performance of her career. If there’s an upset, it’ll be either Keira Knightley or Angelina Jolie.
BEST ACTOR â€“ DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Analysis: This is a freight train that will fly all the way through Oscar night. Blood is a flawed film, and, for me, Day-Lewis overshoots the mark, but mine is the minority view. I could make a case for George Clooney, but why bother.
BEST PICTURE â€“ MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Analysis: Juno may be the betting favorite, but the magnitude of Tim Burton’s accomplishment will carry the day. As with Dreamgirls last year, it is possible for Sweeney to win here and still be shut out of the Best Picture category at the Oscars.
BEST ACTRESS â€“ COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Analysis: This is the toughest category of the night. This Edith Piaf biopic was a major hit overseas with $71.6M international, but Cotillard is anything but a slam dunk. In December, it seemed as though Amy Adams was the ingÃ©nue du jour, but now that appears to be Ellen Page. Even Bonham Carter can conceivably win in this race.
BEST ACTOR â€“ COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Analysis: He’s an international star who lives in France, plus he’s been nominated 7 times before. He cannot lose this time around. Despite that, Ryan Gosling’s performance in Lars & the Real Girl may be the best of 2007.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Analysis: Julia Roberts is window dressing. I don’t think that Saoirse Ronan can win for haunting performance in Atonement, but she was amazing. Tilda Swinton was terrific in Michael Clayton, but this probably won’t be her spot either. That leaves Broadway’s Amy Ryan vs. double nominee Cate Blanchett. The HFPA will recognize Cate for inventing a performance that nobody else could have pulled off.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Analysis: 5 great performances, and, in an ordinary year, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Travolta or Tom Wilkinson could win, but this is not an ordinary year. The devil showed wearing a page boy haircut in the new Coen Brothers movie, and Bardem will be picking up a lot of hardware.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Analysis: The Simpsons Movie makes this interesting, but Ratatouille is art. Disney+Pixar=Best Animated Feature.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
Analysis: Stiff competition, but Julian Schnabel is the only filmmaker here who also shows up in the Best Director category.
The Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
Analysis: I get the idea that the US may be crazier about the Coens than the HFPA. Joel and Ethan are distinctly American auteurs. Joe Wright for Atonement and Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd could steal this prize.
Diablo Cody, Juno
Analysis: The HFPA likes to spread the wealth, meaning the Coens won’t win screenplay. Diablo Cody, the stripper-turned-screenwriter, should win for Juno besting the smartly-crafted Aaron Sorkin screenplay for Charlie Wilson’s War.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marinelli, Atonement
Analysis: Could the Globes really call Clint Eastwood’s name for Grace is Gone? Of course. I say, however, that they will choose to honor Marianelli’s hypnotically-beautiful, Phillip Glass-like score for Atonement.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Guaranteed” by Eddie Vedder, Into the Wild
Analysis: Again, Eastwood has a shot, but this will more likely come down to Vedder and Menkin & Schwartz for “That’s How You Know” from Enchanted. Despite the HFPA’s dislike for Sean Penn, they’ll hold their noses and give this award to the former Pearl Jam lead.
Enjoy the Golden Globes press conference. Here are my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Early Saturday & Revised 3-Day Estimates.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $8.12M, $2,792 PTA [$15.9M cume]
2. NEW – First Sunday (Sony) – $7.87M, $3,557 PTA [$14.02M cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $5.84M, $2,386 PTA [$67.7M cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $5.21M, $1,545 PTA [$184.2M cume]
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) – $4.35M, $1,257 PTA [$184.9M cume]
6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) – $3.88M, $1,159 PTA [$238.6M cume]
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros) – $2.79M, $1,248 PTA [$19.4M cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) – $2.07M, $893 PTA [$45.7M cume]
9. NEW â€“ Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything (Universal) – $1.98M, $1,481 PTA [$3.1M cume]
10. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) – $1.84M, $768 PTA [$58.4M cume]
11. Atonement (Focus) – $1.8M, $1,901 PTA [$24M cume]
12. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) – $1.59M, $636 PTA [$34.1M cume]
13. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.46M, $1,108 PTA [$43.1M cume]
14. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) – $1.09M, $849 PTA [$25.1M cume]
15. NEW – In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) – $1.03M, $644 PTA [$2M cume]
16. Enchanted (Disney) – $880,000, $733 PTA [$121.8M cume]
17. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) – $825,000, $1,167 PTA [$2.6M cume]
18. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $760,000 $5,891 PTA [$3.7M cume]
19. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) – $645,000, $902 PTA [$10.4M cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem – $640,000, $464 PTA [$39.6M cume]
21. The Golden Compass (New Line) – $535,000, $656 PTA [$67.2M cume]
22. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $520,000, $791 PTA [$46.5M cume]
*The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) – $141,000, $1,880 PTA [$1.7M cume]
*The Savages (Fox Searchlight) – $130,000, $1,413 PTA [$2.9M cume]
*Persepolis (Sony Classics) -$56,000, $5,091 [$450,000 cume]
*Heartbeat Detector (Independent) – $2,789, $2,789 PTA [$4,767 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $19.56M, $6,722 PTA [$20.99M cume]
2. NEW – First Sunday (Sony) – $18.5M, $8,364 PTA [$18.5M cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $14M, $5,721 PTA [$71.25M cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) – $11.39M, $3,375 PTA [$187.2M cume]
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) – $8.88M, $2,567 PTA [$187.5M cume]
6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) – $8.6M, $2,567 PTA [$240.7M cume]
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros) – $6.42M, $2,869 PTA [$20.9M cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) – $4.93M, $2,126 PTA [$46.9M cume]
9. NEW â€“ Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything (Universal) – $4.53M, $3,389 PTA [$4.53M cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) – $4.26M, $4,495 PTA [$25.17M cume]
11. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) – $4.22M, $1,755 PTA [$59.4M cume]
12. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.48M, $2,637 PTA [$44.1M cume]
13. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) – $3.32M, $1,327 PTA [$35.1M cume]
14. NEW – In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) – $2.65M, $1,657 PTA [$2.65M cume]
15. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) – $2.44M, $1,893 PTA [$25.7M cume]
16. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) – $2.03M, $2,877 PTA [$3.1M cume]
17. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) – $1.93M, $14,963 PTA [$4.3M cume]
18. Enchanted (Disney) – $1.86M, $1,555 PTA [$122.4M cume]
19. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) – $1.54M, $2,155 PTA [$10.8M cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem – $1.48M, $1,078 PTA [$40M cume]
21. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) – $1.23M, $1,876 PTA [$46.7M cume]
22. The Golden Compass (New Line) – $1.18M, $1,452 PTA [$67.6M cume]
*The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) – $372,000, $4,960 PTA [$1.9M cume]
*The Savages (Fox Searchlight) – $309,000, $3,359 PTA [$3M cume]
*Persepolis (Sony Classics) -$140,000, $12,727 [$493,000 cume]
*Heartbeat Detector (Independent) – $6,580, $6,580 PTA [$6,580 cume]
Read More at Fantasy Moguls.