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Box Office Tracking: Star Trek Could Reach $65M for 4 Days! Easily Biggest Trek Opening Ever!

Posted on Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 by Steve Mason

Star Trek behind the scenes

The all-new J.J. Abrams reboot of Star Trek (Paramount) will win the second weekend of the Hollywood Summer Box Office season by at least a couple of light years over Fox’s fast-fading X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but some of the astronomical numbers I’ve seen floating around in the blogosphere are very over-heated. Make no mistake, this movie will open extraordinarily well, but it’s not going to play out as a typical front-loaded blockbuster. Moviegoers need time to shake off the disappointment of the final TV series Enterprise (starring Scott Bakula and canceled after four seasons) and the disastrous 2002 final film Star Trek: Nemesis ($43.3M domestic). It will take time for a new generation of fans to discover the magic of Gene Rodenberry’s vision of the future through Abrams’ magical lens.

As of Wednesday night, Star Trek is cruising with 94% Fresh (positive) reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, and critics are slinging some seriously glowing hyperbole.

“Paced at warp speed with spectacular action sequences rendered brilliantly and with a cast so expert that all the familiar characters are instantly identifiable, the film gives Paramount Pictures a new lease of life on its franchise.”
– Ray Bennett, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

“It’s an exciting, stellar-yet-earthy blast that successfully blends the hip and the classic.”
– Joe Neumaier, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

“Trading on affections sustained over 40 years of popular culture, STAR TREK does what a franchise reboot rarely does. It reminds us why we loved these characters in the first place.”
– Ty Burr, BOSTON GLOBE

“Blasting onto the screen at warp speed and remaining there for two hours, the new and improved STAR TREK will transport fans to sci-fi nirvana.”
– Todd McCarthy, VARIETY

Let’s be honest. Prior to what, by all accounts, is Abrams’ full-on Lazarus-style resurrection of Kirk, Spock and The Enterprise, Star Trek was dead. Worse than dead, it has been considered “uncool.” That’s what Paramount is fighting in the marketplace, and realistically, even in its peak as a movie franchise, it wasn’t a powerhouse.

The biggest opening weekend for a Star Trek movie was 1996’s Star Trek: First Contact with $30.7M and the top grossing title ever was Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (with that ridiculous humpback whale storyline), which surpassed $109M. Consider this. Here are the top five opening days for movies in the Star Trek franchise.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR STAR TREK MOVIES
1. Star Trek: First Contact (1996) - $13M
2. Star Trek: Generations (1994) - $9.7M
3. Star Trek: Insurrection (1998) - $9.5M
4. Star Trek: Nemesis (2002) - $7.7M
5. Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (1986) - $7M

When journeyman actor Robert Pine, best known for playing Sgt. Joe Getraer on the late 70’s TV hit ChiPs, appeared as an Akritirian Ambassador named Liria on the series Star Trek Voyager (the TV series with Kate Mulgrew as Captain), he could have never imagined that his son Chris would someday play Captain Kirk, but the 28-year-old is now in the Trek’s most pivotal role. He was excellent in a little movie called Bottle Shock last year, but aside from that, and roles in The Princess Diaries 2 and Smokin’ Aces, he is basically an unknown.

In fact, the new Star Trek is filled with actors who are more-or-less unknown. Simon Pegg, the brilliant UK star of Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz and cast as the colorful Scotty here, is probably the biggest name in the cast along with John Cho from the Harold & Kumar movies, playing Sulu. But these are all talented actors who will wear well as the franchise turns into a steady hit machine for Paramount. Fans of NBC’s Heroes already know Zachary Quinto who gets to don Spock’s pointy ears and Chekov is being portrayed by one of my favorite young actors, 20-year-old Anton Yelchin, who was heartbreaking in the gritty Alpha Dog and showed a lighter touch in Charlie Bartlett. Trekkers are also likely to take to the sexy Zoe Saldana (Drumline, Guess Who?) who steps into Nichelle Nichols’ shoes as Uhura and will appear in James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar at the end of the year.

The appropriate movie to look to for box office guidance is 2005’s Batman Begins. Great filmmaker (Christopher Nolan), spectacular reviews, but the franchise was dead and uncool after 1997’s ridiculous Batman & Robin. The reboot 8 years later opened on a Wednesday with $15M and had banked $72.9M in 5 days (the Friday-thru-Sunday was $48.7M). That lays the groundwork for an accurate prediction for Star Trek.

My bet is on a possible $65M for 4 days. With Thursday preview screenings starting at 7pm, Star Trek could snag as much as $8M on Thursday night (the Trekkers will be out in full force). Then Friday could be something in the $20.5M range with a slight uptick of 5% on Saturday to a possible $21.6M followed by a standard 30% Sunday drop to about $15M.

Once audiences realize that Star Trek is light year better than previous movies in the franchise (and last weekend’s Wolverine), the picture will play and play and play. I think that, of all of the major studio releases this summer, Star Trek may have the “longest legs.” If the movie opens within 5% of my number or bigger, the multiple (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend in order to arrive at the final domestic gross) could be 3.4-3.5, which would push J.J. Abrams reinvented Rodenberry opus to something in the $220M-$230M range.

I am anticipating a steep drop of 65%-70% for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and producer/star Hugh Jackman will be forced to settle for a second weekend of $27M-$30M. That would still be a nifty 10-day gross of $130M or so.

Finally, Next Day Air (Summit), a low budget, R-rated urban comedy starring Donald Faison (Scrubs), Mike Epps (Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins), Wood Harris (The Wire) and Mos Def (Cadillac Records), will open in the shadow of the retooled U.S.S. Enterprise and is unlikely to wrap up the weekend with any more than $6M.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 8-10
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $65M (includes Thursday previews)
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $30.6M
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $8.8M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $6.7M
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $6M
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $3.8M
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.7M
8. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $2.6M
10. Earth (Disney) - $2.4M

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  • I'm going to see it on Saturday and it will be the first Star Trek movie I have seen in a theater in years. It looks good and the reviews are mostly great so my money should be well spent this weekend.
  • musicsoup
    i think what they meant is that it's tracking $65mil... FOR FRIDAY!!!!

    can't forget to add up Thursday, and Saturday, and Sunday. Oh my.
  • yeah a 65 mil is a best possible scenero. Hopefully it will have really good word of mouth and continue to gross. It's just nice to hear that alot of non trek fan's are wanting to go see this movie. Which is always a good sign and even better for a trek film. the question is not what it will gross but how people will respond to it.
  • EvolutionXtinct
    People thought the same thing w/ Xmen:Wolverine and look it pulled over 100 million. I honestly think Star Trek will do the same as Wolverine did his opening weekend, only difference is it won't run out of steam till Terminator hits or the week after that.

    I love how people try to predict how much a movie will make and then within 3 days of its release it already breaks expectations. Hugh Jackman didn't even think he had a chance for a sequel now look at it! Scripts being written. I do not think Star Trek will do any less and I highly bet (my nutsack!) that there will be a sequel created for this as paramont will jump on the band wagon that others have done and keep rollin out sequels while its still fresh in people's heads.

    Also from what i've heard from those who aren't so Trekky (myself being one of them) I've never liked the older Trek movies, they are the appitamy of Nerdyness I would have never let myself be caught watching a Trek movie (Go STAR WARS!!) But this reboot has me thinking differently, and I believe thats what will make it earn a lot more extra money. The reboot is a true reboot and like they said its what makes people become familiar and connect w/ the original characters.
  • Jordan
    saw this on tuesday... and having never seen anything star trek related before, was truly amazed by how great it is. i think this movie will have tremendous legs, with only terminator as it's real competition for a long stretch of time.
  • I'm pretty sure its going to do better than $65 million for its 4-day opening. I can't see this movie make less than Wolverine OW. Especially after pre sale tickets were so so high for Star Trek and it is the most watched trailer over at Apple.
  • Just because the trailer was watched a lot on apple doesn't really gauge how well the film will do. "Snakes on a Plane" anyone. However I haven't heard any news about the advance ticket sales.
  • marvin
    if it means anything, but arclight has DRAMATICALLY increased the number of shows in the week ahead. i cant remember when was the last time arclight had so many shows for one movie, and have already sold out some dome shows
  • MyNew Pep-Pep
    They should have got Michael Bay to direct this. Then it would be AWESOME and make billions!
  • I hope it does more than 65
  • gah
    yeah that seems kind of low. i cant believe that Wolverine will still outgross it even with the pirating.
  • gah
    yeah that seems kind of low. i cant believe that Wolverine will still outgross it even with the pirating and the horrible reviews.
  • dagreenman18
    actually, considering the hype machine behind this film, i say it will make a lot more. possibly more than Suckerine.
  • 790
    Star Trek will make around 109 mil opening weekend. Possibly 115mil.

    This film is going to be huge your analysis of the fanbase is way off.
  • jthunders13
    Wow, i posted a comment over at ew.com last week after i saw a bunch of comments in a Wolverine story talking about how Star Trek would open over 100 million and basically destroy Wolverine.

    jthunders13 Thu, Apr 30, 2009 at 05:50 PM EST

    "Star Trek next week i know its getting pretty decent reviews from fans and non-fans. But, this franchise has a stigma, teens are gonna be very wary to walk into a theatre to go see a Star Trek movie, it just still has geek-fest written all over franchise. Look for it to open in the 60 range, and be billed as a disappointment, then end up doing decent totals. The film needs to be looked at on the Batman Begins model, rebuild the franchise, do decent numbers, look for the next film to be the one you cash in on."

    I was pretty astounded to see come over here and read this take that was strikingly similar using the Batman Begins example too...i guess we'll see if it pans out this weekend.
  • 65? No, I hope it to makes 75-85. The movie, I'm sure, will have great word of mouth and hit a lot more people than Whoreverine. Plus the reviews are getting nothing but love right now, I think it'll do real well.
  • musicsoup
    I have a $10 bet this is opening to $90mil +

    what i've noticed when it comes to summer blockbusters, for the last couple years, it's been all about beating the last big movie. audiences actually feel like they're a part of making box office history. it's a strange excitement for them. wolverine was a strange success. star trek is the real deal. it's gonna be HUGE. HUGE!

    I'm pretty sure Iron Man was tracking around the same amount right before it came out, maybe someone knows for sure. Regardless, I think what they mean, is that it's gonna be bigger than anyone expects.

    finally a big summer film that lives up to the trailer.
  • Josh
    I haven't seen a Trek movie on the big screen since Undiscovered Country. Gonna see this at 10pm Thursday night and have not been this excited since about 5 minutes before Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, which strangely fell on the same night that I was last extremely disappointed by something. I'm thinking the predictions about 65m and "long legs" sounds pretty solid.
  • I think you are wrong, X-men was so, so bad, that word of mouth has spread and I think it will be lucky to make $20 million. If a horrible and anticipated movie like X-Men can make 85 million, than an excellent and anticipated film like Star Trek will make $100 million.
  • stb247
    I am a 30 year old fart who grew up with Star Trek (TNG, DS9 still my favorite) and had a chance to see the film yesterday.

    I must concur. For me, Star Trek is now officially dead. And will stay that way.

    Whatever movie J.J. made, it's not Star Trek. I know, they youngsters will like it, and any non-Trek fan as well, but as a former Trekkie and avid fan of the past films and shows, I have to say, this is just a step into the wrong direction. If it is successful they'll make a sequel and continue to get further away from the source material. It sure looks that way.

    Paramount has officially killed everything I liked about Trek. I hope I am not alone, but I know I am in the minority.
  • Weyland_Yutani
    Yes, you are in a very small minority. One look at the trekmovie-geek site would probably solidify your minority status as an extreme outlier. Hey, at least you will always have your beloved TNG DVDs as you grow into your mid-thirties golden years.
  • danny
    Yeah, I figured there would be some old-school fans who just aren't going to dig it, simply because it's not the same thing that's been regurgitated for the past 40 years. Just like there are old-school Bond fans who dislike Casino Royale because it's a different take on the character, regardless of the fact that there are 20(!) freakin' movies of the character being pretty much the same. And I'm sure there are Batman fans who dislike Nolan's take.
  • Joe
    And I thought that Onion News Network video was a parody.
  • you dont understand he is not talking about that the new style or actors do not suit for the roles... he is talking, lets put this way...

    Imagine somone from star wars going back in time and avoid prince leia´s Alderan for being destroyed... that consequentially that made luke and her never met, luke never fought with darth vader and a complete new universe was created at that poin sweapping all you know and love... and that was made for a mega crazy guy from the future that wanted revenge because his home word Alderan was destroyed by darth vader and his death star...
    But thats not old... to achieve his time travel he destroy Coruscant... so in the old movies/series/games time line coruscant is no more... and at the same time they create a new time line where change all for ever

    Something like that happened.
  • How DARE they put action and nuance into a Star Trek film!!!

    I'm a 31 year old NON-old fart (dude...you're only 30...not a geezer) and think that Star Trek has grown really really stale (DS9, Voyager, Enterprise totally suck and there was only one good TNG film). In fact, out of all the Star Trek films, only 4 are really good.

    So the fact that new life is being breathed into Trek is a good thing. Can't wait to see it this weekend and actually enjoy a Star Trek film in the theater.
  • Even with my limited knowledge/viewership of Star Trek I can understand why you feel that way even though I LOVED the reboot. It's definitely not the Trek I remember and had I been attached to that in anyway I would have been disappointed. Like the Star Wars prequels experience except not shitty. If the prequels had been as cool as the new Trek I would have had a heart attack watching The Phantom Menace and died with a smile on my face.
  • dxr
  • i totally agree with u man... thanks for saying what i was thinking... they have created a new trek that destroy all what was behind... there was no need to do that they could simply do it in other way... now dont have the old trek anymore and the new trek is very strange... we will know if futher films are done if they are not related to the original crew of jj abrams version they could never to about any other of the other series because there is no possible way to continue with this time line ... all has gonefor ever.
  • Nice to hear that Star Trek won't struggle at the Box Office. I think that if this was released back in December, it wouldn't have made much money, well not as much as it's going to make now.
  • Weyland_Yutani
    Regular theater tomorrow night and IMAX on Sunday. Very few films get my first week attention.
  • Joe
    This is going to be my first Trek movie ever. I'm headed to the theater tomorrow night with, no lie, 25 guys.
  • No doubt Star Trek is going to kick Wolverine's ass at the box office. I think 65 mil sounds about right. I've never seen a Trek film.... (despite the fact I have some cousins who are obsessed with Trek), I've never been interested in Trek... but the trailer looks SOOOO good.
  • One of the reviews that kind of turned me off to seeing it this weekend was "Star Trek is this year's 'Iron Man!'"
    Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely seeing this movie because of J.J. and his crew. But come on, some of us didn't really like "Iron Man.."
  • General media liked it, so the marketing decided to go with the flow.
  • RPK
    I know many of the "bloggers" on this site will disagree with you, but I have to say it's a shame that Paramount will shamefully ignore all the Star Trek Die hards who supported Trek throughout the lean times.

    It's obvious they are going for the "Twilight" crowd with this dumbing down of the Star Trek IP. At least you can't be surprised about it being so superficial after hearing J.J. Abrams was directing. The minute I heard his name, I knew this movie will be gasrbage.
  • Troy
    Yeah, I think nobody can ruin the franchise any further than Rick Berman and Brannon Braga already have.

    I'm all for J.J. to do whatever he wants with Trek, because it certainly can't be any worse than what's come before.
  • I'm pretty sure its going to exceed $65 million for its 4-day opening. I can't see this movie making less than Wolverine OW. Especially after pre sale tickets were so so high for Star Trek and it's the most watched trailer over at Apple.
  • I think $65 is solid number considering what Trek movies have done in the past. I don't think it's going to kill the box office this weekend even with the good reviews.
  • In that picture, the chairs on the floor are loose... isn't that kind of a hazard for a space ship? One little shake up and Kirk's gunna have a chair flying at him.
  • I just got done screening Star Trek and I went in very skeptical. J.J. Abrams has never really impressed me with the exception of "Lost" and as a non Trek fan I didn't have any attachment to the characters nor any desire to see them reinvented. Well, you can color me impressed now because Abrams knocked the fucking thing out of the park. I haven't enjoyed a film this much in a long time and the opening 10 minutes is as exciting and affecting as any blockbuster I have seen in a long time to the point I almost teared up. Much like Batman Begins this baby is going to roll up some big money thanks to word of mouth. Look for Chris Pine to end up a big star if he can avoid being pigeonholed as "Captain Kirk" and Quinto, Pegg, Saldana, Yelchin, Cho, were all excellent as well. If you're on the fence I really can't recommend it enough. It blew me away and I am already jonesing to see it again. Props to Abrams. Can't wait for the next one!
  • Wortvogel
    Correction: according to boxofficemojo, First Contact made the most money (not adjusted for inflation)

    My prediction: it will beat "Wolverine".
  • 65 mil is a good guess. Gonna take some time for the stank of previous Star Trek films to leave the public's mind.
  • ASDFG
    Oh my god! I had absolutly no idea this movie was this little. I thought Star Trek was going to be an Iron Man esque blockbuster. 65mil is bullshit. There is no way this movie makes less that 100mil opening weekend.
  • gregt
    Why on earth is anyone thinking of this movie as a STAR TREK film. That's not what it is. I don't give a shit what the title is. I think star trek is douschey horse shit and there is no way i'm not going to see this movie on friday.
  • Aaron Baiers
    Anyone know how Steve Mason comes up with his multiplier? Or does he have an email through the site to post questions?
  • that comparisson is wrongly done... the openings in the different trek movies were measured by the money the tickets sold... but the price of tickets have varied a lot... they have risen a lot... it should be measured by people that paid for it.
  • Forrest
    Adjusted for inflation, the first movie did $35M in 3 days in 857 theaters, and is still the highest grosser with somewhere north of $370M (possibly as much as $450M).
  • Buzz experienced a dip earlier this week, but picked up again a few days ago. We'll see how it does
  • 65 million, eh? Well it made $76,500,000!!! TAKE THAT!!! IN YOUR FACE!!! http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=startrek11.ht...
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