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Box Office: Wolverine Claws to $34.75M Friday; Could Scratch Out $86.8M Opening Weekend

Posted on Saturday, May 2nd, 2009 by Steve Mason

Wolverine Poster

In my Final Weekend Tracking column posted on Wednesday, I predicted that X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) would reach $92M on opening weekend, despite soft reviews (now only 38% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). My first fearless forecast of the 2009 summer blockbuster season appears to be close to dead-on (missed by only 5%).

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight - $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 - $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand - $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 - $40.4M
5. Spider-Man - $39.4M
6. Iron Man - $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United - $31.2M
9. 300 - $28.1M
10. Watchmen - $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight - $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 - $151.1M
3. Spider-Man - $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
5. Iron Man - $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 - $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United - $85.5M
9. 300 - $70.8M
10. Hulk - $62.1M

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok - too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) - the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) - took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) - $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) - $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) - $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) - $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) - $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) - $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) - $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) - $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) - $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) - $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

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  • I'm sorry but this movie was just awful, it's sad that it's even going to make that much. Then again, that's FOX for you.

    Also, Peter..why don't any my post show until at least 5-10 days later..?
  • Fixing it
  • Sergemeister
    I have to agree. I just came back from watching it. Never saw the leaked copy, liked X-men and X2, didn't like this. It tries so hard that it's palpable. It's just sad. I think many people are going to watch this for the same reason that I did; I just thought it couldn't possibly be as bad as people made it out to be. But it is. You can fill about 5 minutes of just people howling or screaming, and as much as they tried to connect it to the other X-men films with some little easter eggs in there, it fell really short at the end.
  • Meh Wolverine wasn't bad, but definitely not good. It was fun and the korniness made for a good laugh.
  • Can we please quit pretending like Twitter has any real effect on box office grosses? Please...
  • and yes Star Trek could have a Iron Man-esque multiplier but its opening weekend will be nowhere near what Iron Man did. A 50-60 million opening weekend with a 3.3 multiplier is not nearly as impressive as a movie than can hold up like that after opening close to 100 million.
  • There are a lot of positive tweets, why didn't you post them?
  • MyNew Pep-Pep
    Fox will never stop raping comic book movies.... next up Gambit, Deadpool, X-men 1st class, Daredevil and FF4 (again)
  • Bad movies should not be rewarded with a high gross. Sure, it is an action film and a franchise, but if the battle and action scenes get boring with no real meaning or danger for the characters, then I can't imagine people going back to see this film a second time. Yeah, maybe once to get the ride, but not twice. Everyone will be seeing Star Trek.
  • I don't care how much money Origins will gross, if they say - the more, the better are the chances for more sequels, that is fine.

    All I need to know is that the writers and the director of this crap will not be allowed to work on any other X-men movie again. Or any movie based on comics, for that matter.
    And Skip Woods, one of the writers, was responsible previously for two disgusting abominations - Swordfish and Hitman. How is that nobody getting the clue?
  • "Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9."

    "Horrible." Riiiight. District 9 was worth it though.
  • Looks like it's doing business like it should while being a film that achieved everything it needed without exceeding ay expectations (which is a shame). I was excited to see this when the first bits of footage came out, but my interest waned as the release drew near. I'm still yet to bother.
  • Seems this film has achieved what it needed to at the box office without exceeding expectations on the screen (which is a shame). I remember being excited to see it when footage was first released online, but as the release drew closer my interest dropped off. I'm still yet to see it.
  • Hmm...Lots of money even after the entire (bad) movie is leaked online weeks before the theatrical release... The movie was being sold on the streets of NYC a month ago and yet a $34 Million opening day?...

    Wolverine is now Exhibit A for the defense of pirates and the biggest STFU to studios going after them.
  • xxxafi
    The movie wasn't as bad as I thought. The plus, in my opinion, was Gambit. I've been waiting for them to add him to the X Men movies.
  • REAL6
    This movie just plain fucking sucks. Nothing good about it at all!!!


    And is there a reason this site blocks all my comments?!?!?!
  • Yeah, what's up with the massive censorship all of a sudden? Should we start watching what to say? Are there new rules what we can write in our comments?
    Just asking.
  • Ben
    "Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9."

    This is why I don't bother with twitter. Wolverine better than X2?

    How am I supposed to know in a short sentence if I can trust that reviewers opinion or not...
  • Thanks :)

    Yeah I was just noticing, it's like they lag out out. Thanks for checking out.
  • Brian
    I saw it and it was good. Everyone in the theater seemed to like it too. I don't understand the bad reviews. But then again, I am not a movie snob.
  • I am so torn on whether or not to see this movie. I'm not looking for critical acclaim, and I know that this movie isn't going to have the aura of realism in its universe like The Dark Knight. The question is: is this a good action movie?.

    I went to see the X-men movies in theaters and I thought they were all done poorly (in comparison to what gets released now), but come on, who goes in expecting that this break from the franchise would be any different?
  • Good action movie? Not really. In all honesty the Hulk Vs. Wolverine cartoon they just put out has better action. If you didn't like the X-Men movies, I doubt highly you'll like this.
  • Brian
    Yes, its a good action movie. And of course its not going to be realistic, its about mutants. Anyone who says its not a good action movie has their heads up their butts.
  • RPK
    I actually thought this movie was OK. And it's no where near as bad as Spiderman 3 or any past/upcoming J.J. Abrams movie.
  • Haha, are you one of those Star Trek haters? Because if you are, I'm sorry, Star Trek looks like its going to be a delicious treat to take a bite out of. ;)
  • RPK
    I don't hate ST, but I do hate garbage movies like MI:3, Cloverfield, and Armageddon. I'm sure J.J. will continue his craptastic legacy with Star Trek.
  • So much for "leaking the movie will keep people from seeing it" and "piracy will destroy the world".
  • Peter
    So then this is proof that piracy is not crippling the movie industry. Right here, this is it. If people want to see a movie enough, they will pay to see it (even if it does suck). This movie was released a whole MONTH early, yeah it was a workprint, but it's still the whole thing, a whole month early and it's still making big bucks? Obviously the piracy myth can be put to rest here and now. But knowing Hollywood, they won't.
  • When will Fox start complaining about how much money they would have made if the movie had been better? I mean, if it hadn't leaked.
  • gah
    Truthfully it might have had a 100 million dollar weekend. alot of people including myself didnt see it because of the bad buzz generated by the workprint or they watched the leaked workproint.
  • Maybe, but if you avoided it because of bad buzz wouldn't the bad reviews alone have caused you to skip it?
  • I'm really surprised that Wolverine is making this much money. I thought it was possible to make 60 to 75 million but this is alot better. I hope this leads to the eventual Magneto film we've all been waiting for.
  • (Why did this comment get deleted the first time? Not intended as flame bait. Do tell.)

    Hmm...Lots of money even after the entire (bad) movie is leaked online weeks before the theatrical release... The movie was being sold on the streets of NYC a month ago and yet a $34 Million opening day?...

    Wolverine is now Exhibit A in the defense of pirates and a big STFU to studios who go after them. The numbers don't lie!
  • Majority of moviegoers are not blog readers, they don't check message boards and twitter for responses or for opinions. They go to the theater, and when they check the list of the films that playing right now, naturally they will select new summer film over anything else, even if they heard bad stuff about it. You never know until you see it by yourself.
    And studio still lost money from piracy, at least 10-20 million. I just hope they won't receive this box office success as a sign of confirmation that they did something good. They should not applause to themselves and not to hug each other. The movie is awful, no money in the box office can change that.
  • I don't want to sound like a tool, but where did you get that 10-20 million number?
  • Out of absolutely nowhere. B)
    And I see that I made grammar mistake in previous comment - applause instead of applaud. And I can't fix it now. So there.
  • First off all I'm a huge XMEN fan of the cartoon series, so I was chuffed to see Gambit and Dead Pool. But I agree there was so many new characters that you didn't get a chance to really know them. Liv Schriever for me as top draw and the character Wolverine was the logical choice to kick start the franchise. I saw this film twice (2nd time around it wasn't as impressice, so probably won't get it on DVD).
  • The New Star Trek movie for me is the benchmark for 2009! Seen it twice already and contemplating buying a BLU-RAY DVD player so I can watch this film in HIGH DEF!! This movie is the nuts!!!

    Look out for Sherlock Holmes, this Autumn, say a trailer on YouTube this week and it looks impressive. I'm a big fan of Robert Downey Jnr's work (Chaplin, Iron Man, even US Marshalls for crissakes) Casting him with Jude Law, as Watson will be an interesting cocktail. Lets hope we're not left with a bad taste in mouth, as recent Guy Richie movie's have sucked, since Lock-Stock. He needs a BIG PICTURE adn so does British cinema.
  • First off all, I'm not really into sci-fi movies, but I was really impressed with the new Star Trek movie. I saw the trailer on YouTube and for the first time, I dragged by boyfriend out to see it. I watched a 70's episode on TV later that week and they have the castign director got the characters spot on. Watching McCoy, Scotty, Kirk, Uhura, Sulu and of course Spock kick-ass was pure class. The storyline is very strong and direction is well paced - giving you enough time to catch your breath between action scenes, without losing interest (directed by JJ Abrams of Lost fame, you can hardly be surprised) The only problem this move faces is a sequel that is better than this (or is it a prequel that is better than this ;-)
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