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Could Fewer Downloads Mean Bigger Box Office for Wolverine?

Posted on Wednesday, April 15th, 2009 by Peter Sciretta

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According to TorrentFreak , X-Men Origins: Wolverine isn’t the most downloaded film in the internet this week. Actually, the illegal 20th Century Fox workprint doesn’t even claim the second, or third spots. More people are downloading illegal copies of Fast & Furious, the direct-to-HBO war drama Taking Chance, and The Wrestler. Is that a bad or good sign?

Entertainment Weekly is claiming that the film is still tracking pretty high with the key demographics, but those numbers don’t reflect the buzz I’ve seen in the wilds of San Francisco. It could be that I’m just not interacting with enough 14-18 year olds (actually, now that I think of it, I don’t think I interact with the key demo at all) who are really excited to see the film, and aren’t among the estimated 1,000,000+ who have already illegally downloaded the film.

Some people I’ve talked to actually believe the leak will end up helping the film’s box office more than hurt it, which defies all conventional logic. And, lets not forget that there will be a new trailer attached for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which in itself is enough to get my ass into the theater.

via: HeadGeek

Comments

Finaldo

Remember that the leak didn't have some CG effects in it, so many of those who downloaded it will go anyways to the cinema to know how the movie looks for real in the end.

BadWasabi

Or perhaps it's because not a lot of people out there know that there is a Wolverine movie available for download, but instead they go looking for what they know is out there?

Gajonka

I though we were at the stage where IP addresses could be determined. These downloaders, freeloader should be jailed, if not fined. Send a virus to all of them, let's end this party!

Brough to you by the people who would like to see more BLOB.

Chuggz

@Gajonka,
Are you fucking kidding me? The people who downloaded this film (shit) should be fined and/or jailed? Thats just fucking assanine, do you actually think the FBI, or Fox is really going to go through the trouble of trying to find over 1 million IP addresses, just so they can fine somebody for downloading a shitty work print? Theres no way in hell they would do that, and who gives a fuck if people download movies or music, is it hurting you? Is it affecting your wallet? No? Oh so shut the fuck up and go bitch with the rest of the assholes who believe pirating is just as serious as killing someone. I gurantee you more then 75% of the people who downloaded it, will still go see the movie in theatres. Besides Fox made so who would want to see what ever piece of shit movie they put out anyways.

ANGRYBROOMSTICK

there's no need to be rude to other people if they have a different opinion from yours.

Gajonka

Whoa! Relax. Swithc to decaf, or Sanka or something. Go get 'em!

Captain_Howdy

You'll often find that completed films of DVD-esque quality are the more popular torrents. People leave comments and track the quality of movie torrents, and most users wait until a v9 a9 is available. Because many of the effects in Wolverine leak were incomplete and it was clearly a working title, it wouldn't have a very high rating, so the majority would skip it.

James

This looks like a big screen film. Besides, I'd only download a proper DVD rip, else saturation and such is terrible. Also, no CG effects?

Lastly, you miss on one big point: usually a movie quickly spawns various group copies, thus pushing up the numbers. The Wolverine leak, prob because of its unfinished state, was ignored by most of these groups. So its availability, technically, was much lower than other films. The Watchmen and Friday 13th TS copies spread quickly. A lot of seeder groups dont want to hurt their reps by uploading inferior copies.

andy

it was DVD quality sharp and color was clear a lot of CG was animatic quality but it was all there. There was never a invisible charecter talking. In fact the only ime there was actual missing information was when the xteam flies into nigeria there's just some clouds and blackness. but teh titles said nigeria so It wasn't hard to imagine. the workprint is very watchable.

duh

"Some people I’ve talked to actually believe the leak will end up helping the film’s box office more than hurt it, which defies all conventional logic"

There are actually many articles on techdirt.com about this subject. It seems stupid to make the argument that more illegal downloads means better sales, but it turns out it is true. Dark Knight is the most pirated movie of all time, now lets take a look at the sales...

I think all studios should embrace piracy as a marketing tool. Pirating movies/music does not mean loss of sales. The Movie itself is an infinite good, the movie theater experience is not, that's what theaters should be worrying about.

James

True, but I don't think any of that is relevant. I don't believe pirate groups maintain a threshold set of standards that need to be met. They probably just flag a movie as not usable based on a specific distinction. In this case this would be that some effects are missing. I'm obviously just guessing,but I have seen a similar trend with previous leaks of semi-finished movies (ie. they are far less visible than other films). Even if the movie is 99% done, would you risk your rep to the huffs and puffs of commentors on torrent sites?

Considering how often fakes and such are loaded online, the groups are VERY protective over their reps and their fans are equally zealous. Taking this in mind I think it's logical that such groups would just step around 'incomplete' movies as a rule. A lot of them don;t even bother with distributing telesync copies anymore, instead just waiting for the DVD screeners.

Infrafan

It's simple for me. There's slim pickings this summer, and I don't want to watch a early, unfinished version of one of the few movies I want to go to the theaters to see this summer. Sure, I'll probably watch it out of interest to compare, but that's afterward.

ANGRYBROOMSTICK

I refused to download Wolverine because 1) it wasn't ready, 2) there were no closed captioning for us Deaf folks, 3) it probably wasn't the final, finished version of the movie.

That being said, I'm looking forward to seeing Wolverine at the B.O. I think this will be a huge summer blockbuster hit, I don't think the piracy downloads will hurt the film's potential earnings.

Gajonka

Where does one download said prints? illegalmovie.com?

Dmirty

In Brazil we had a similar case with the movie Tropa de Elite (Elite Squad in the US). The movie was stolen from the set and more than a million people saw it months before the opening.

In the end it was the biggest grossing in Brazil in 2007. I don't think this will be the case with Wolverine but who knows? It really gave a lot of free TV and Web time to the movie.

charles

Listen Cot Dammit this movie fuckin sucks !!!!!!!!!!! Why can't you fuckin realize or accept it!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even if it does to OK in opening weekend, the next week Star Trek is going to fuckin rape the shit out of this movies overall box office. Fuckkkkk!!!!

Mason

The above post is epic 9yo fail...

ZephyrXero

Could it be no one cares about downloading/watching this movie b/c Xmen3 sucked so hard, and the trailers make it look pretty lame too? I know that's my reason...

Give me a call when they reboot the whole franchise and Fox is no longer involved? k, thanks

missnicolec

I talked to a bunch of people who went ahead and downloaded it but then actually decided not to actually watch it. They were basically planning to see it in theaters anyway, even with the leaked copy out, so they just decided to actually wait and see the "finished" one in theaters, that way they wouldn't watch it twice.

shadowfuries

Doesn't anyone else realize that the leaked copy wasn't even 75% done yet? I would think if you were willing to pirate an early copy, that you were interested in the movie, and would want to see a final cut...

Chuggz

If im willing to pirate a copy of a workprint, it doesnt mean that I am willing to go see it in theatres. I could care less if the movie is 100 percent complete, or its only 85% (actual percentage quoted from Fox) people download and pirate movies because they either dont want to pay the rediculous cost of a fucking ticket, or they dont feel that they should pay to watch a mediocre to shitty film. Wolverine was doomed from the begining, workprint leak or not nothing is going to save this abortion of a movie. People download movies and music because its convinent and free, and anyone who says they dont are full of shit. We are all pirates, only some of us have the balls to admit it. I saw the workprint and I am glad I did because now I know im saving 10 dollars by NOT going to see it in theatres.

Richard Hall

Even though I watched the film at a watchparty after a friend burned it, I'll still see it in the theaters. It's not a very good movie, at all. In fact, it's quite crappy; but I want to see the finished product, the 100 percent version. Might still be crappy, I might wish I had saved my $8, but it won't be the first time I've made a movie-going mistake. No big deal.

james h

Yay, thanks for changing title to 'fewer'.

Tripplo

I think most people will want to see Wolverine with all the CGI included. The workprint will be more popular after wolverines release, because the average viewer will want to compare it to what they saw in theatre and laugh. This cant be stopped. But they should include a copy of the leaked video as a special bonus disk with the dvd/blue ray releases. Alot of people would be interested to see the movie without special effects and without the annoying commentary.

Stylist_Mick

I've had this sitting on my computer for a week and have yet to watch it. Even pirated copies of FOX movies bore the shit out me.

Andrew

I'd rather see it on the big screen first...

missnicolec

I talked to a bunch of people who went ahead and downloaded it but then actually decided not to actually watch it. They were basically planning to see it in theaters anyway, even with the leaked copy on their computer, so they just decided to actually wait and see the "finished" one in theaters, that way they wouldn't watch it twice.

----

I think it reached its saturation point, all of the people who would be interested in downloading a work print version of the film have already done so.

I watched it, the story was pretty awful and the characters where boring. Two things that no many number of work drafts can really repair, but I'll still see it in theaters since they really did get screwed over.

J_Luna

12am (err maybe 3:15 if tickets get sold out) at the IMAX opening night is the only way to experience this movie. I won't be downloading it.

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