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Box Office Tracking: Witch Mountain Could “Rock” Watchmen for Surprising Weekend Win

Posted on Wednesday, March 11th, 2009 by Steve Mason

witch mountain cast

One of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros).

Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the Graphic Novel.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on - can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN

Watchmen, three hours of my life I will never ever get back.

Watchmen was a horrible movie! We went today. My bf goes with me to chick flicks,so I go to”other”. THIS ONE WAS bbaaad! Yuk

Going to watch the watchmen so I can rip it to shreds later

Watchmen – way too much blood, way too many slaughtered people!

For everyone who says, “What’s the point of Twitter,” here’s a real-life application. I was able to watch the word-of-mouth take shape for Zack Snyder’s film adaptation of the classic Alan Moore graphic novel. When projecting box office, I use a multiple to arrive at a weekend estimate. After a $24.5M Friday, it would be fair to expect about a 2.5 multiple for about $61.25M ($24.5 X 2.5 = $61.25M). Instead, that strong Friday resulted in a much softer $55.2M, operating on a 2.25 multiple.

That means that in this new age of Twitter and Facebook and text messaging, word-of-mouth on a movie spreads like wildfire. If a film is bad or challenging or has a bad ending, potential moviegoers are going to know it before opening weekend is over. In fact, a negative reaction from Friday’s ticket buyers can mean fewer admissions on Saturday and Sunday.

As I have written before, I like this movie. Given the densely-plotted source material, Snyder has pulled off something amazing. This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theater door. Watchmen is about ideas. For me, it is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is. The film is cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful. The Dark Knight, ultimately, is about how when everyday citizens are confronted by impossible choices, they do the right thing. In the nihilistic world of Watchmen, everything is gray, uncertain and relative. Anybody who showed up last weekend for a bucket of popcorn and some cheap CGI thrills probably left very disappointed.

Fortunately for Warner Bros (domestic distribution rights), Paramount (foreign distribution rights) and Fox (a profit participant thanks to litigation), the hardcore fans of the graphic novel seem to like the movie. Here are some Tweets from fanboys last Friday and Saturday.

Seeing watchmen again for the second time.

Watchmen, pretty damn good, really enjoyed it. Now to finish reading the graphic novel to get the details and depth of everything

experiencing the post-Watchmen glow.

I am dying to see Watchmen again, soooooooo good!

The big question in Hollywood is, “How much will Watchmen fall this weekend?” When the opening weekend 3-day is this big, even wildly successful movies like Iron Man and The Dark Knight tumble about 50%.

SAMPLING OF SECOND WEEKEND DROPS FOR 2008 BLOCKBUSTERS
Iron Man – down 48%
Hancock – down 49%
The Dark Knight – down 52%
Jumper – down 54%
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor – down 59%
Quantum of Solace – down 60%
The Incredible Hulk – down 60%
Wanted – down 61%
The Day the Earth Stood Still – down 68%
Cloverfield – down 68%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – down 71%

My best guess is that the encore for Dr. Manhattan and pals will be in the $20M-$23M range, and, if I you pin me down to an exact prediction, I’ll go with $22.1M, which would mark a 60% decline. A 3-day take of less than $20M would be a huge disappointment.

If you happened to see this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live, you saw a tour de force from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. His opening monologue, which turned into a Fosse-style musical number, was a piece of hilarious self-mockery, and he really got the President’s vocal cadence down for an Incredible Hulk spoof called The Rock Obama. Johnson has gone from pro wrestling superstar to versatile entertainer, and he’s also a full-fledged movie star.

In the fall of 2007, The Rock flexed his box office muscle with Disney’s The Game Plan. The family film featuring Johnson as a football star and playboy-turned-Dad, and, after a $23M opening frame, the movie went on to $90M domestic.

Now Disney is re-booting its popular Witch Mountain movies from the 1970’s – Escape to Witch Mountain in 1975 and Return from Witch Mountain in 1978 – with The Rock, Carla Gugino (Watchmen) and AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge To Terabithia). Tracking with the family crowd, including Moms 25 Plus, is very strong, and I am predicting $22.75M, possibly enough to score a surprise win over Watchmen.

Wes Craven’s R-rated remake of his 1972 classic The Last House On the Left (Universal) looks a bit stronger-than-expected. Despite no real star power, there is room in the marketplace for this kid of gruesome scarefest, and I think the movie could hit $18.2M by Monday morning, good for third place.

The other new wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), a crass R-rated comedy with no star power. To me, the tracking looks very soft, and it looks like it will miss the top 5 altogether with just over $5M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
3. NEW - The Last House on the Left (Universal) - $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) - $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) - $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) - $2.07M

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  • really? I kinda wanna see Watchmen again....
    I don't feel like I got it the first...probably cause I was hammered
  • I want to see it again, too. If only to make up my mind as to whether or not I like it.
  • To be fair, Zack Snyder's Watchmen was a piece of shit. Jackie Earle Haley was good, but that's it.
  • What about Patrick Wilson and Billy Crudup?

    Okay..this is my thing: Like it or not, at least it was a movie where you can see where YOU CAN SEE the effort.
  • I think Patrick Wilson was bad. For the first time in anything I've seen him in. He he should never play the nerdy character again. The entire Silk Worm and Nite Owl story storyline had zero chemistry, and fell completely flat. And no, Snyder's porno he shot with them in the clouds does not redeem them.

    But yeah, Crudup and Haley definitely rocked their parts.

    The other person who I thought was amazing was the guy who played The Comedian (forgive me for not iMDB'ing his name). I think he really nailed his character's purpose.
  • Jeffrey Dean Morgan was fantastic.
  • that is just sad. I really hope Watchmen defies its critics and has a good take this week.

    hate it or not, losing to Witch Mountain would be wack.
  • Its a shame, I was shocked when I saw it has 64% on rottentomatoes.
    Famous critic Roger Ebert gave it 4 out of 4!
    and the major critics here in Australia, Margaret Pomeranz and David Stratton gave it 4.5 and 4 out of 5 respectively.
    All the people whose opinions count with me liked it.
    Including myself.
    Losing to Witch Mountain is a wee bit wack, but kids movies tend to do alright.
  • Loving that David and Margaret gave it such a high score.
  • it would be HUMILIATING, that's for sure.
  • Mike Vick
    Everyone who went in expecting Spiderman, X-Men, or Batman, left hating the movie. People of no knowledge of the original source HATED this movie. Mostly due to ignorance, but then there are some others who were familiar and still hated it. But the general public were upset because they were spoiled with great films like the Mall Cop, Madea goes to jail, and Taken in the past couple months and then something stupid and boring like Watchmen came along
  • Mike Vick
    I'd also like to add that Coraline and Watchmen are at the very least, two of the most visually impressive movies I have seen in quite some time and its sad to see that both aren't going to get the numbers they deserve.
  • thankyoufor
    No watchmen was visually amazing sometimes, the last 30 mins were so visually boring i feel like the end was really rushed.
  • gah
    thats very interesting. See we here in internet land live in a fanboy bubble. Everything we hear about films comes from the vocal fanatics and we never stop and listen to what the rest of the world is saying. And when you think about it, its not suprising that Watchmen didnt click with audiences outside our demographic. I'm of the mindset that believes the DK might have knocked of about 150 m off it's total gross had the Heath Ledger death not been such a national news story.
  • That's why I don't take a 'fanboy' review seriously because they are so unreal.
  • Truth to be told, I agree with the Heath thing; his death did give the movie some...mystique I suppose. However, I also thing that his death led to a curiosity and his acting was the thing that laid the foundation.

    However, we will never know the truth until we die. Hopefully not horrifically.
  • gah
    I still think Heath deserved the Oscar, but the reason why people like my grandma and my mom saw the DK was not because they like psychotic clowns, but because it was on the news 24/7.
  • starscream9289
    I can somewhat smell what The Rock is cooking, but I would rather go watch Watchmen again, in case I missed something.
  • psbp
    just read the fucking book. You can read it in 4-5 hours and get much more out of it rather than spending 6 hours watching a campy movie.
  • Bull
    6 hours? Did you see it twice in a row? Get bent loser.
  • I'm convinced that The Rock got hair transplants.
  • I predict about $32 million for Witch Mountain and $19 million for Watchmen,
  • IDK what it is, but Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has my hear. I loved "The Rundown" "Southland Tales" and "Be Cool." On top of that "Bridge to Terabithia" made me bawl because I was not expecting that deep to hit me. So two actors that I seem to enjoy doing a kids movie is enough for me to see it. Even though I will have to dumb myself down to enjoy, I think I have the right mentality to see this film and enjoy it. It's just fun.
  • Bull
    Be Cool was easily the lamest film of that year. Considering how good Get Shorty was, whoever directed Be Cool should be punched repeatedly in the face.
  • Palmer
    Meh, fuck 'em. Bunch of unsatisfied bastards who will never be happy with an adaptation of anything. But, Patton Oswalt covered that in his MySpace post.
  • Probably going to see Watchmen again in case I missed anything. It may not have gotten amazing BO, but I enjoyed it enough and that's what counts.
  • Phil
    Twitter = a feature already built into both Facebook and MySpace. I only joined Twitter so I could send Hulk Hogan a message.
  • I was about to say that.
    I hate facebook, and twitter.
    Myspace is a combination of the two!
    So much better...
  • Wankiewitz
    Mountain will make at least $35, and WM will drop 72%. Watch.
  • Bruce Campbell
    Sweet predictions man. Too bad you are just pulling that out of you ass.
  • Wankiewitz
    Yep - based on 15 years in the business.

    And it looks now like I was absolutely correct. Sorry, Bruce. Thanks for playing!!
  • Dagwar
    If you work in the "business" then you will also know the hugely different audience populations that there is between Mountain and Watchmen but if you don't then let me lay it out for you. Mountain is a kids movie, already that makes it have a large audience because idk if you have looked around latly but there's a ton of kids around second it is based off the popular Witch Mountain movies that even I watched as a kid so i might even drag my adult ass into the theater to see the Rock do his Disney thing. This is against Watchmen which is rated R which already limits its audeince, along with that is a comic book movie that is unlike others before it. It isn't another Batman, Spiderman, unless your part of the comic book world now or were part of it when the first issues were first being released you probably haven't even heard of it. So then people might put in that since there is a huge comic movie movement going on right now that it should bring in lots of people right? wrong. People go to Watchmen expecting a super hero movie which is FAR from what this movie is about and there for they come out unsatisfied. "where is my escape from reality" They then run around saying how bad the movie is to their slacking friends who havent seen the movie yet and probably never will based on the terrible review they have received involving a blue penis.

    SO thank you Wankiewitz for jumping on the anti Watchmen band wagon but it's not helping anyone.

    Watch out for squids kk <3
  • Saw RTWM and it's a hoot - definitely a popcorn movie. The Rock is following the-Ahnold in how to be a comedic actor.

    That said, I'll probably catch Watchmen a second time this weekend, in IMAX this time.
  • I'm sorry but Watchmen was just as empty as 300. Zack Synder is skillfull at making glossy sterile films with with no emotional attachment whatsoever.

    A faithfull adaptation does equal a good film.
  • Er... a faithful adaptation would also have been about 5 and a half hours long.
  • This is just depressing and I'm just tired of people giving these rants about Watchmen. I mean come ooon...
    I'm willing to make a difference for that film, I loved it and it certainly deserves more so I'm gonna watch it 1 or 2 more times (maybe 3 like I did for TDK). It may be nothing but in a small way I helped and did my job as a fan.
  • freemachine
    The lack of general audience appeal, and thus the backlash of negative feedback, should be blamed entirely on Warner Bros' marketing department. For about a year we've seen stunning teasers and trailers that provided more flash than substance. It's not that the audience didn't get it, it's really that they were walking into an experience they were unprepared for. If it's a thinking person's movie that tries to convey important ideas, then the studio is under the obligation to prepare the audience for just that. On the other hand, there should be no confusion as to what to expect from Witch Mountain.
  • terminals
    saw watchmen three times opening weekend.
    i did my bit.
  • psbp
    yes, you have proved yourself retarded.
  • Jeff W.
    "Could"? Of course "Witch Mountain" is going to win this weekend. Nobody is saying it yet but the fact of the matter is that Watchmen is a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I loved it and I wish it had done better, but there's going to be an embarrassing decline this weekend. Outside of fanboys people do not like this movie. I'm guessing that it will make an additional 12 million or so.
  • Si_
    "This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theater door."

    Sounds like the usual argument of "I liked this film, if you didn't you must be too stupid to understand it".

    Although I didn't have any criticism of the story apart from it being quite clichéd in places, I did have a problem with almost everything else.

    Although I do like it when films use relatively unknown actors, the acting in this film was subpar to say the least with the exception of a few standouts.

    I would also say it had the worst soundtrack to a film I have ever heard. Using songs from the era the film is set has been done much better in films like Forest Gump, boogie nights and Blow, which are all set over a few decades. Plus Rise of the Valcaryies in the Vietnam scene = MASSIVE CLICHÉ and the song playing in the sex scene actually made me laugh out loud.

    Finally I just thought it was pretty poorly directed/edited….

    From other opinions I have read it seems like the ppl who liked this film are in the minority.
  • ulman
    SECOND WEEKEND DROPS -- will Hollywood go the way of Bollywood? There, movies make the bulk of their box office in the first few weeks, before word of mouth gets out, interest flags, and piracy cuts the movies' legs off. Like the Worm Ouroboros, sharp dropoffs have pushed Bollywood to emphasize bigger and bigger budget films, choking out smaller, or independent, or quirky films. The big trash are epic fails, and dropoff faster, which pushes them to produce even bigger, trashier fare. And so it goes.
  • psbp
    I hated it more than any movie I've ever seen. Just because it was pointless and kind of destroyed the original graphic novel. Why did they need to make a film adaptation? And I'm tired of hearing this "zach snyder worked so hard!" bullshit. The movie just copied scenes from the graphic novel, there was no creative process, no original ideas, just butchering.
  • skippy
    well "psbp"... it sounds like you would have been better off never watching the movie at all, because by the sound of it you would have HATED any attempt at a Watchmen movie, regardless of the outcome. And that's probably why some fans of the book HATED the movie - because they were clutching this unrealistic expectation in their minds that no film version would ever achieve. Hey, "Passion of the Christ" was a stylistic film that differed from the book it was based on (I forget the name), but you didn't see the Christian fanboys piss their pants on the internet.

    I really liked Watchmen.
    (I did myself the favor of not reading the book first so that I can enjoy the movie on its own accord, and then read the book afterwards)
  • Oh yes, I can definitely get down with The Rock. I smell him, baby.

    On the other hand, I'd rather watch Watchmen another 5 times than Witch Mountain.

    But I still love you, Rocky.
  • Chance_808
    He's still The Rock, to me. Not this "Dwayne Johnson" nonsense!
  • I fucking hate Bollywood, too.
  • So any tweets that like Watchmen are from fanboys? Including the one who hadn't even read the book yet? WTF
  • Gotta love the empowerment of people who don't have the slightest clue about films. And let's not forget about the quality of an opinion ("review") resulting from a 144 character limit. How I love twitter!

    Example twit:

    just saw watchmen, like 3 hours long (yawn), wtf ? no superheroes at all, lol. transformers 4 everrr
  • Palmer
    Meh, fuck 'em. Bunch of unsatisfied bastards who will never be happy with an adaptation of any book, comic or (hell) even video games. But, Patton Oswalt covered that in his MySpace post.
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