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How Much Money Will Watchmen Make?

Posted on Thursday, February 19th, 2009 by Peter Sciretta

I live in a world of movie fanatics, comic book geeks and online nerds, so in my little bubble, Watchmen looks like it’s the second coming. It’s easy to get high on the hype and develop tunnel vision. But what about the mainstream audiences who haven’t heard of the graphic novel, never mind even read it? I’ve heard of audience member outbursts where people have been making fun of the costumes and yelling comments like “what is this shit” at the screen while the trailer runs ( I haven’t experienced this reaction myself). Could Watchmen be the next Snakes on a Plane? Or could it break The Matrix’s Reloaded R-Rated record?

Throughout the week I talk on the phone with Frosty from Collider, and we have conversations about stuff just like this. Last week we recorded a video blog review/preview of the first 45-minutes of Pixar’s Up and the response was pretty good, so we decided to do another one. This time around we discuss Watchmen’s realistic box office prospects. Steve saw the movie this week, so I also try to get him to spill the beans (but am rather unsuccessful in my attempts). More importantly I would like to hear what you guys think.

Discuss: How much money will Watchmen make on opening weekend? Watch the video and then leave your guesses/thoughts below.

Disclaimer: We haven’t figured everything out (for instance, I definitely need to get a headset), but regardless, it’s still very watchable. We’re also aware that we’re going too long. In the future we’re hoping to keep these things in the 10-15 minute range.

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  • A lot....
    You can walk into any mainstream book store and they are shoving the book right in your face. TV spots up the ass, virals for the fans (like me), T-shirts and posters you can find at your local Hot Topic, FACEBOOK! Trust me, even if people have no exact idea of what its about, they'll see it just to find out why the there is a blue guy (Dr. Manhattan). No offense, but I think that they have advertised it soo much, that people will see it..... just to see it. To see why we are frantically shaking, foaming at the mouth when we watch the trailer every time it comes on at the theater. Not... like I did that or anything...
    Plus.. there's a lot of explosions n shit...
  • A lot....
    You can walk into any mainstream book store and they are shoving the book right in your face. TV spots up the ass, virals for the fans (like me), Overpriced T-shirts and posters you can find at your local Hot Topic, social networks (Facebook, Myspace)! Trust me, even if people have no exact idea of what its about, they'll see it just to find out why the there is a blue guy (Dr. Manhattan). No offense, but I think that they have advertised it soo much, that people will see it..... just to see it. To see why we are frantically shaking, foaming at the mouth when we watch the trailer every time it comes on at the theater. Not... like I did that or anything...
    Plus.. there's a lot of explosions n shit...
  • A lot....
    You can walk into any mainstream book store and they are shoving the book right in your face. TV spots up the ass, virals for the fans (like me), Overpriced T-shirts and posters you can find at your local Hot Topic, social networks (Facebook, Myspace)! Trust me, even if people have no exact idea of what its about, they'll see it just to find out why the there is a blue guy (Dr. Manhattan). To see why we are frantically shaking, foaming at the mouth when we watch the trailer every time it comes on at the theater. Not... like I did that or anything. No offense, but I think that they have advertised it soo much, that people will see it..... just to see it.
    Plus.. there's a lot of explosions n shit...
  • Jesse
    i cant express how bummed out i am over the fact that they altered the ending after the director was quoted saying "we didnt bitch out on the ending". what a dick that dude seems to be.

    this movie is just a weak hollywood version of a great story. everything that happens in the comic is well thought out and very significant to the story especially the ending. its laughable that they would feel the need to alter a story that is seen as one of the greatest comic/novel ever.

    no wonder Alan Moore wants nothing to do with these people
  • Jake
    It has the R rating, and it's coming out in early March. I would guess anywhere from $80-110 million for the weekend. This is no Dark Knight (PG13 + summer release + Ledger's death + sequel).
  • D. Knoller.
    30-45 tops for the weekend. black people aren't feeling it in the friday the 13th late night showings. always a bad sign for your box office.
  • I think releasing the film in March was a poor choice given the amount of money and effort they spent on this.
  • Frosty's guess is spot on...considering it's unknown material to the general public and it's a R film....50-70million opening with about 180-250million domestically....I have no idea how the worldwide market is going to feel about this movie but if it does anything like the Matrix sequels did overseas it's going to make a bundle overall....
  • Frosty's guess is spot on...considering it's unknown material to the general public and it's a R film....50-70million opening with about 180-250million domestically....I have no idea how the worldwide market is going to feel about this movie but if it does anything like the Matrix sequels did overseas it's going to make a bundle overall....Peter made an excellent point about all the products they're putting out in the market for Watchmen as well...I think having all this stuff in stores along with the massive marketing campaign is going to pay off a lot in the end
  • Get over it. Not everything will make it over to film from a book. Everything gets changed.

    It has to be done sometimes for the sake of the story. Btw, Alan Moore wants nothing to do with anything film-wise. This has been established for years now. It's nothing new and Snyder offered him a hand but still declined. In the end this is a DC product more than it is Moore's creation.

    I'm glad Gibbons jumped on board and helped Snyder.
  • M. Moote
    I would definitely agree with the 50-70 figure. I'm glad to know that as a fan of the comic, i should be satisfied with the movie. From the trailers I know synder's nailed the visuals, and that Haley's performance will be great. However from the other clips, like the 4 that were posted a couple days ago, I am a little worried about performances of the other actors. Night Owl, Ozymandias and the comedian just don't sound right. I'm not convinced snyder can direct actors, and that could ruin the movie for me.
  • I'm gonna go with $55-60 million opening weekend.
  • I think 60 mil is a pretty safe bet. However, I can't say I'd be shocked if it scraped 90-100 mil. You've gotta remember, Matrix Reloaded was quite a while ago, there's a whole new generation of fans excited about huge tentpole movies, the trailer was seen by everyone who went to TDK, the dollar's value has gone down... it could all culminate in a new rated-R record. Only thing hampering that's the March release date.

    BTW, great to hear you guys will be doing more of these video blogs. I kinda liken it to Slashfilm's take on Seinfeld: the vblog about nothing. I know Peter's a fan of Star Trek, you guys could totally do one about the history of Star Trek films right around the time of the new Star Trek release.
  • I'm glad Gibbons did as well...it's understandable about why Moore feels the way he does..he's been burned way too many times to really care at this point...we can only hope he ends up checking it out and at least giving his thoughts on it
  • I'm glad Gibbons did as well...it's understandable about why Moore feels the way he does..he's been burned way too many times to really care at this point...we can only hope he ends up checking it out and at least gives his thoughts on it
  • I'm gonna go with $55-65 million opening weekend.
  • I'm gonna go with $55-65 million opening weekend. To add some context to my guess: I've never read the books.. I had never even heard of Watchmen until the movie info started coming out. I know a ton of friends who are going into this film with the same amount of knowledge as me. It really is everywhere and hopefully that pays offf because it looks really great.
  • how is the ending 'different' again? The squid? I mean, does it alter the real ending? no. It altered the plot device that still leads to the same conclusion as the book.
  • I'm gonna go with $55-65 million opening weekend. To add some context to my guess: I've never read the books.. I had never even heard of Watchmen until the movie info started coming out. I know a ton of friends who are going into this film with the same amount of knowledge as me. It really is everywhere and hopefully that pays off because it looks really great.
  • how is the ending 'different' again? The squid? I mean, does it alter the real ending? no. It altered the plot device that still leads to the same conclusion as the book.
  • I second this idea. These videos are pretty fun to watch and discuss here in the comment section. Definitely do a Star Trek or Terminator Salvation one (or both!).
  • I'm gonna go with $55-65 million opening weekend. To add some context to my guess: I've never read the books.. I had never even heard of Watchmen until the movie info started coming out. And now I'm going to see it opening night! I know a ton of friends who are going into this film with the same amount of knowledge as me. It really is everywhere and hopefully that pays off because it looks really great.
  • Alex
    I think it'll do either around 42 or 76 million. Nothing in between. It'll either be fairly successful or very.
  • A shit load.
    Seriously.
    With a trailer like that.
    One of my mates, the Man-whore of our school, hes a bit slow, in no way nerdy, he thinks this looks cool.
    Me, being slightly nerdy, thinks it looks F*CKING AWESOME.
  • Schmooie
    I saw The Dark Knight in IMAX during a midnight screening at Lincoln Square in NYC here and one of the guys in the audience cracked "Was that Batman?" When Night Owl jumped down from Archie.

    Anyway I'm predicting $80M opening weekend.
  • hey
    Just a note to say the volume is uneven. To hear Peter, you have to turn the volume way up, but then the other side of the conversation is blasting your eardrums out.
  • We know, in the disclaimer I mentioned I need to get a new headset before we record another one of these things, which will fix the problem.
  • Hey Peter, I just watched the video and you said you wanted to know what we thought and what our friends were saying about the movie.

    Alright, well I have a few friends that went and watched The Dark Knight and they saw the Watchmen trailer. That was a great idea by Warner Bros. because most of my friends really want to see the movie, they really were hooked from that one trailer. They have never heard of Watchmen and certainly haven't read the graphic novel but they all say that it looks like a good movie and that they will be watching it when it is released.

    I think that just from how my friends heard of Watchmen that there are tons of other people just like them, and that they will be watching Watchmen whenever it comes out. If some are skeptical about Watchmen making money, I would use that example of mine to reassure them that Watchmen shouldn't have a tough time making money.
  • Ok I have yet to check out a movie at IMAX and I have a theater in my city where I'm thinking of checking out Watchmen....what is the setup like? because I've gone to IMAX at museums and it's beyond uncomfortable...I'm hoping the actual theater setups are better...any comments or advice?
  • TheHick
    i believe Watchmen started out being something not everyone knew about, but now ppl are starting too see how big it is and are becoming interested. The fact that TDK was so awesome also helps, ppl now can expect high quality comic book movies and if this is as good as i think it will be it should hit the 70 mil point opening weekend including thursday night openers(which im assuming there will be lots of??) But even with its flashy advertising and publicity, i believe its the good word of mouth from readers of the comic expressing to other ppl how good this thing actually is, that will give itt big box office numbers.

    so ya im saying for thursday midnight til sunday it will be around 70 million
  • Just based on marketing saturation, the meter on IMDb based on stuff like Iron Man's numbers, the fact that it is the only wide release on the 6th. $50-70 mill. seems reasonable. People are going to the movies in droves right now and this will draw a larger audience beyond us film/comic geeks.
    Would be silly to predict age, ethnic and gender demos but I think it'll be a healthy mix.
    And yes please, Peter do more video blogs. After dealing with wonky DTV signals two film geeks talking numbers was a fine late night lullaby.
  • sam
    fun video peter, look forward to more. i'm thinking watchmen does 45million. Jason only did well becuase of valentine's day and would have flopped otherwise. The slight cheesiness of the costumes could put off a lot of people and make them feel like it's a cheesy film
  • T-MACK
    It's simple. Look at 300 for comparison. Anything less than $70 million will be considered a failure. Anything north of that figure will be considered a solid success.
  • Dreampolice
    So where's Chuck Woolery to tell us if it's a love connection or not? I'm guessing YES!
  • http://tinyurl.com/buuwmf

    i wish they'd marketed the movie with more scene like this instead of fetishistic shots of malin akerman and a whole lotta slow-mo...it's like when they marketed i am legend as an action movie when it was about will smith being alone.
  • Interesting video, though a little bit deafening in places.

    I've seen Watchmen too and similarly am under embargo but the very second I can publish here, I will. I think you can expect a pretty big an extensive look at the film here before anywhere else legitimately posts on the matter.

    And I'll also have red carpet footage from the World Premiere.
  • Interesting video, though a little bit deafening in places.

    I've seen Watchmen too and similarly am under embargo but the very second I can publish here, I will. I think you can expect a pretty big an extensive look at the film here before anywhere else legitimately posts on the matter.

    And I'll also have red carpet footage from the World Premiere.

    I don't think it will do very well, myself. Moderately well. And that's in no way a judgment of the quality of the film - not least because I can't publish one of those.
  • You should make more videos like these, it's like listening to 5 different related in-depth articles in one video. Before this video I had a guess about 100+ million because the fanboy in me wants it to be 100+, but after watching this and realizing about the 20-year distribution of the book and its unknown audience, I think the movie will make about 55 million at least, and 90 million at the most.
  • Great video, you guys!

    As much as I really wish this movie all good, I'm not sure it will be the success it deserves.
    The lack of buzz around it here in Sweden tells me that it's totally going to fail, at least at the Swedish box office. Really no one I know have ever heard about the graphic novel or even seem midly interested in this movie when I bring it up. You could argue that I only hang out with boring people with no sence of greatness, but sadly I don't believe that's the case. Around the time of TDK my friends were almost as psyched to see it as me.

    But I do believe that the rep. of TDK and 300 really helps this movie. Without them no one would have faith in comic book movies nor Zack Snyder. I don't believe it will earn as much money as WB wants it to, neither in U.S. nor internationally. But it will earn more now than it would have earned, lets say ten years ago.

    With that said I will totally support this movie and drag as many of my friends as possible to see it. And I really hope that the directors cut and the Black Freighter will be released internationally.

    p.s. pardon my grammar.
  • you should upload on youtube so we can video respond and people can check out those too if they follo through to a /film youtube channel

    are collider gonna host these as well?
  • you should upload on youtube so we can video respond and people can check out those too if they follo through to a /film youtube channel, or one shared with collider i guess
  • But, as the guys mentioned, this is like Iron Man. In essence, a summer release. After the curious case of frost / milk in striped pajamas season is over, people want to be entertained, and if this film will get the critics and WOM behind it, it might do extremely well. I dont know, $72M.
  • I honestly don't give a shit what he has to say about the film. I love what he's contributed to the comic world with his work. But that's where's it stops. He's not someone I expect to change views on film. He's been like this even before they were adapting his work.

    He's too set in his ways.
  • Charles
    A good $50 to $60 million opening weekend. No 300 numbers for this film opening.
  • This to me is really, really hard to judge (however I guarantee in hindsight some will respond entirely differently).

    I have been inundated with 'Watchmen' propaganda everywhere I have been over the last few weeks; every film I have seen at my local cinema has had the 'Watchmen' trailer preceding it, and the lobby is full to the brim of huge life-size cardboard cut-outs and posters, while every music/videogame/dvd store is now placing the Watchmen graphic novel at the forefront of their store.
  • Now the marketing propaganda is certainly there in my neck of the woods (Sheffield, England), but is it working? Well I haven't heard one person mention the Watchmen universe at all since I have been frequenting these places over the last few weeks and the only comment I have heard about the film (not from my friends, but an anonymous movie-goer) was a large group of young males before 'Valkyrie' who mentioned, quite loudly, that; "that trailer looks like shit, whats it about? Some blue guy or summat [something]."

    Now, personally as a huge fan of the graphic novel I hope, financially, the film does incredibly well and so does the 'Tales of the Black Freighter' DVD, but at the end of the day, the only way we will truely have an idea how the 'Watchmen' will do, will be on March the 6th, when we can judge the crowded/emmtiness of the cinemas in which we inhabit for this film.

    [For some reason it was 'too long', so I had to split it into two comments...]
  • opens with 75 million, then word of mouth takes it to about 180
  • simon
    I'm actually scared of how my non-fanboy mainstream kind of mates will react to this. I've introduced them to the trailer and talked it up a bit as being a critical darling of a graphic novel with a darker tone ala TDK. Overall but, i'm not too sure if it will resonate with them without a Heath Ledger that transcends the screen.
  • UNFORTUNATELY, MY PREDICTION ( AND I WAS THINKING ABOUT THIS THE OTHER DAY) IS THAT SINCE IT IS SUCH A LONG FILM, AND IT DOESNT REALLY HAVE THE YOUNGER VIEWERS , IT WILL NOT BE AS SUCCESSFUL AS MANY BELIEVE. MAYBE 130 MILLION TOTAL IN US.

    I SEE IT COMING - THAY ARE NOT ADVERTINSING THAT WELL- NEED A BETTER HOOK.
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