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Frost/Nixon, The Reader and Milk Are Among the Weakest-Grossing Best Picture Nominees in a Decade

Posted on Saturday, February 7th, 2009 by Steve Mason

There is a phenomenon known as “the Oscar bounce.” When a movie receives Academy Award nominations, especially one of the five coveted Best Picture slots, ticket-buyers generally follow. The Oscar seal of approval used to mean something to the rank-and-file moviegoer, but that seems to have changed.

Only one of this year’s Best Picture nominees has inspired any real passion from the broad public. The almost-certain Best Picture winner is Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), and its devotees, including critics and members of the Academy (not to mention yours truly), have made it a word-of-mouth smash hit. The Danny Boyle-directed feel-good Bollywood fusion movie made for a meager $14M added another $2.05M or so on Friday and is charting a 3-day course for about $7.25M. That will give the Slumdog a $77.2M take, and it could reach $90M-$95M before it’s through in American theatres.

The other four Best Picture noms are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount), Milk (Focus), The Reader (Weinstein) and Frost/Nixon (Universal). I approached  Benjamin Button as a little kid might approach broccoli. (You’re not allowed to leave the table until you eat it, and it’s supposed to be good for you.) It’s very long, a bit pretentious, and not nearly as good as other David Fincher-directed films like Se7en and Zodiac. After opening strong, the movie is now fading despite 13 Oscar nominations, selling about $640,000 in tickets Friday for a likely $2.24M 3-day. The cume will be a respectable $119.8M by Monday, but how many people have you actually heard saying, “I love Benjamin Button!”

The Reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon are now on as many screens as they will ever be, and they are certainly not setting the world on fire. Here’s how the five movies nominated for Hollywood’s biggest prize are performing this weekend.

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF BEST PICTURE NOMINEES FEBRUARY 6-8
Slumdog Millionaire - $2.05M Friday - $7.25M 3-day - $77.2M cume
Benjamin Button - $640K Friday - $2.24M 3-day - $119.8M cume
The Reader - $605K Friday - $2.17M 3-day - $15.9M cume
Milk - $285K Friday - $1M 3-day - $25.2M cume
Frost/Nixon - $189K Friday - $662K 3-day - $15.5M cume

Aside from Slumdog Millionaire, there’s not much box office upside here. Ben Button is unlikely to reach $130M, while Milk will probably fall short of $30M. The Reader could add a possible $8M before its done, and Frost/Nixon won’t even get to $20M domestic.

PROJECTED CUMES OF 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Benjamin Button - $127M cume (projected)
Slumdog Millionaire - $95M cume (projected)
Milk - $29M cume (projected)
The Reader - $23M cume (projected)
Frost/Nixon - $19M cume (projected)
Combined projected cume: $293M

If those numbers hold, the 2009 awards season will have given us three of the six weakest performing Best Picture nominees of the last decade.

TOP 10 LOWEST GROSSING BEST PICTURE NOMINEES OF THE LAST DECADE
1. 2006 - Letters From Iwo Jima - $13.75M cume
2. 2009 - Frost/Nixon - $20M cume (projected)
3. 2009 - The Reader - $25M cume (projected)
4. 2005 - Capote - $28.75M
5. 1999 – The Insider - $29M
6. 2009 - Milk - $30M cume (projected)
7. 2005 – Good Night & Good Luck - $31.5M cume
8. 2002 – The Pianist - $32.5M cume
9. 2006 – Babel - $34.3M cume
10. 2008 – There Will Be Blood - $40.2M cume

Now just two weeks away, the 2009 Oscar ceremony could be a Waterloo of sorts for the Motion Picture Academy. First-time Oscar producers Bill Condon and Lawrence Mark have promised something daring. A re-imagining of the Academy Awards telecast, coming off last year’s all-time lowest ratings.

Hugh Jackman, the talented Australian actor, will serve as host. He previously won an Emmy for his hosting of the Tony Awards a few years back (Here’s his opening musical number from the broadcast.) Yes he can sing and dance, but can he overcome the lack of appeal of the movies that the Academy has chosen to honor?

As a hardcore movie fan, I will be watching, but the average American doesn’t care about enough of these movies to draw a substantial audience. This group of Best Picture nominees seems destined to be the second-least popular group of nominees in the past fifteen years with an ultimate combined cume of just $293M.

WEAKEST TOTAL GROSS FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
- last 15 years -
1. 2005 - $245M
Crash, Brokeback, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck, Munich
2. 2009 - $293M (projected)
Slumdog, Ben Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
3. 2006 - $296M
Departed, Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
4. 1996 - $306M
English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
5. 2007 - $357M
No Country, Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
6. 1993 - $368M
Schindler’s List, Fugitive, Name of the Father, The Piano, Remains of the Day
7. 1995 - $378M
Braveheart, Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense & Sensibility
8. 2004 - $401M
Million Dollar Baby, Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
9. 1998 - $440M
Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth, Thin Red Line
10. 1994 - $543M
Forrest Gump, Four Weddings & a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, Shawshanke Redemption

I would love to be wrong. I’d love to believe that keeping the identities of presenters a secret, and a song-and-dance man from Down Under, and the sight of Brad and Angelina on the red carpet, and a gutty, little independent movie from Mumbai, and a guarantee from producers that the show won’t exceed three hours, and the dramatic posthumous recognition for Heath Ledger - that it will all work to draw a huge television audience. But I am feeling more certain that ABC’s Oscar telecast this year may go down as the lowest rated ever.

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  • I haven't had any desire to watch Benjamin Button, but I imagine if I did, I would too, approach it like eating broccoli
  • it's good. not as good as "Slumdog", but it's still pretty good.
  • oh please don't be such a film slob. I can't stand film snobs nor film slobs.
  • thanks for sharing.
  • i have sat down twice to watch it and still havent finished it.. nt that its bad, it just isnt that reat...
  • It's because of Piracy, it's so easy to steal a movie with a couple hundred screeners, it's bound to hit the internetz, no mater how hard they try.
  • It's about the type of films. Think about this, if TDK would be nominated, which it should be, the story would be somewhat different.
  • I agree with you on the fact that we wouldn't be commenting on this subject if a summer blockbuster was nominated for Best Picture. Well I guess we would still be talking about how bad these films are doing now at the Box Office, but the article up top wouldn't be as long talking about how this could be the 2nd worst Best Picture group of all time.
  • Better_Than_You
    This has to be one of the worst Oscar seasons in recent memory. "The Reader" gets nominated? I love how "The Dark Knight" naysayers say it didn't deserve the nod, but that filth certainly does!
    Lets not forget "The Curious Case of Forrest Gump" and the Academy's political hard-on for "Milk."

    Yeah. Those are real worthy... Perhaps no one's seeing these movies because they're just not that great.
  • jon
    yet they are seeing paul blart: mall cop?
  • Alex
    False dichotomy. You can be a "The Dark Knight naysayer" and think that the three films other films you mentioned do not either.

    Waltz With Bashir, The Visitor, The Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married, and Slumdog Milionaire would have been my nominees.
  • The Reader is "filth"?

    Wow, it's hard to believe someone said something so ignorant and ridiculous on the internet. And your username suggests such a level of class and dignity, too.
  • freemachine
    I just watched "The Reader". It was the last film on my Oscar list of movies to see. WOW! Heartbreaking story and well acted. The "filth" that OP must be referring to is the older woman/teenage boy sexual relationship. I actually thought it was rather erotic in a good way, but then again I'd probably rank high on the OP's list of perverts. The only movies of the Oscar season that didn't impress me were "Benjamin Button" and "Milk". "Slumdog" and "Doubt" were outstanding.
  • Better_Than_You
    Likewise, hard to believe someone likes crap too. But here you are I suppose.
  • jason B
    shocking how priorities change when we find ourselves in the middle of an economic crisis. people chose food over a $35 trip to the movies? the hell you say!
  • jerry seinfeld
    actually, hollywood just broke a record for january box office receipts:

    http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/record-1-bi...

    JS
  • I agree with you. I think that if they were watching movies at the theaters, they're not going to go watch Oscar worthy films, and instead, watch family oriented films.
  • Palmer
    Perhaps Americans aren't big on Nixon (Except Watchmen), Gay-centric films (In my opinion I think Milk should get best picture),or probably tired about movie dealing with Nazis and the Holocaust. That or they were duped into seeing Slumdog Millionaire.
  • I'm with you on Milk taking best picture.
  • No siree! Milk was okay, but way way overrated. Can't hold a finger up to The Wrestler.
  • Palmer
    Well, too bad it wasn't nominated for Best Picture.
  • They were both equally good, in my eyes. I had a hard time deciding, awards aside, which film is actually the best picture I've seen this year. I'd love to give them a tie, really. They were both outstanding - Shao Kahn style. But I would argue Milk is my pick out of the nominations. Between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, again, I just can't decide. Both were brilliant performances.
  • gah
    Middle America at the Movies:

    Frost/Nixon- less talk, more boom.

    The Reader- We hate Reading.

    Benjaman Button- look it's that guy from all them magazine covers!

    Slumdog Millionaire - i dont trust them foreigners. Takin all our jobs.

    Milk - ew...homos
  • Hotel for Dogs: LOLLLLLSOCUTE
  • HAHAH! Perfect sumation of America and movies. Good job. Sucks people aren't seeing Frost/Nixon though (can't vouch for Reader, haven't seen it). Excellent movie.

    It's a real shame no one is seeing Milk though. That was definately the best movie of the year, and deserves Best Picture. But like you mentioned, it's got TEH GAYZ in it, so they won't go near it for fear of popping a boner while watching it.
  • I took a friend with me and hadn't considered he might be slightly homophobic, but he's a smart guy and it turns out he didn't mind at all, really enjoyed the flick. Which is good, because it was the best movie of the year. :)
  • Matt
    You're an idiot.
  • I'm super glad that Slumdog Millionare fever is spreading, and I'm happy that Paramount and Warner are well off with Benjamin Button, but it's sad to see Milk having such low box office. I haven't seen The Reader or Frost/Nixon, but Milk is a great film with some of the year's best performances (from Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, and the unnoticed Emile Hirsch) and beautiful cinematography and art direction that deserves to be seen on the big screen, but it's strangely being underrated by the film geek crowd. People don't love it because of the Prop 8 dilemma; people love it because it's a great film. Now, I don't think it should win Best Picture come Oscar night (my heart is still with Slumdog Millionaire), but it deserves your $9 or $10.
  • I'm super glad that Slumdog Millionare fever is spreading, and I'm happy that Paramount and Warner are well off with Benjamin Button, but it's sad to see Milk having such low box office. I haven't seen The Reader or Frost/Nixon, but Milk is a great film with some of the year's best performances (from Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, and the unnoticed Emile Hirsch) and beautiful cinematography and art direction that deserves to be seen on the big screen, but it's strangely being underrated by the film geek crowd. I don't like the attitude the film is getting from you guys either. People don't love it because of the Prop 8 dilemma; people love it because it's a great film. Now, I don't think it should win Best Picture come Oscar night (my heart is still with Slumdog Millionaire), but it deserves your $9 or $10.
  • Wow - my sentiments exactly. I loved Milk - it actually made my mom and I tear up. At its core, it is an extremely touching film about resilience, but the fact that it's still so relevant makes it hit close to home. However, I'm one of those people you read about who are crazy for Slumdog. My heart is with that film, too. When you line up all of the Best Picture nominees, it stands out from them all. I still haven't seen Frost/Nixon or The Reader, though...
    but I've seen Slumdog twice.
  • Milk was fantastic - I won't question the motives behind skipping it but the people who did missed out.
  • I think you're right Jason, the economy is certainly a factor in what viewers are choosing to see these days. Let's face it, the average film-goer isn't into seeing intense "thinking films." They go to the movies for escapism and more often than not, something that's going to lift their spirits. Three out of the five nominees (Milk, Reader, and Frost/Nixon) aren't going to pluck your spirits up, Slumdog might after a few hours of literally dragging you through the mud, and Benjamin (which I have yet to see) seems like it will just cruise along on a contemplative track. Why depress yourself?
  • fair point. Maybe the audiences didnt want to wait for summer for the brainless pieces of entertainment
  • jerry seinfeld
    fight hate with hate, gah -

    that'll learn him.

    JS
  • What's the DEAL with homophobia?
  • Aequitas
    Yeah, during awards season i believe a lot of screener of movies are released for "award viewing only".

    Anyway my top 5 for best picture would be:

    Hunger
    Che
    Frost/Nixon
    Rachel Getting Married
    Synecdoche New York
  • Gabriel
    Oh, you're taste is even worse than the Academy !!!
  • Aequitas
    I hope you are being sarcastic because i cant really tell. Anyway i have seen all the oscar contenders and most of the other movies. If you have seen Hunger & Che and still feel that way its your opinion but i would be safe to assume that not a lot of people have caught Hunger & Che, so do yourself a favor and watch it before formulating an opinion on it.
  • can't believe someone liked The Reader.
    it's so weak, really.
    i would replace it by RR, the film deserving to be nominated
  • freemachine
    We must have totally opposite taste in movies. I thought Revolutionary Road was rather pointless and extremely predictable. Once I saw the rubber tubing I knew exactly how it was going to end. Anyway, I liked it better when it was called American Beauty.
  • I do believe ive heard lots of people say they love benjamin button
  • I haven't seen Benjamin Button, but, it's wrong to say you liked the movie?
  • Palmer
    I also heard a lot of people say they loved it....when it was called Forrest Gump. Truth be told I do like Benjamin Button and Forrest Gump. But you got to admit they are very similar to each other....since Eric Roth did the screenplay for both.
  • it's not about how predictable movie is. it's about how it's done. and from this side RR is much better than The Reader.
  • cib3k
    I've seen most of the Oscar contenders - haven't yet seen Milk, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Benjamin Button, Doubt. Mostly because I'm not that interested in the stories they're trying to tell. I don't care much seeing a movie about a gay activist, the Nixon era or abusive priests. The other two I intend to see at some point, but they're not so high on my list of priorities. I've seen the beginning of Benjamin Button, and while really well made, it just failed to grasp my interest for now. The Reader seems like an English Patient type of story, and I'm just not much into that.

    That being said, I've seen Slumdog before it even was on the Oscar list - because it's a Danny Boyle movie, and I love his work. Also, it has an intriguing and original premise, and I guess that's one of the things that attracts audiences. When you talk about some of the less popular movies, you can sum them up in a few words, they're about familiar issues (yet not very compelling ones) and audiences know what to expect. Slumdog is a bit different, and together with the good word of mouth and positive reviews, it's easy to see why people go see it.

    Also, it seems that some people start blaming piracy when they have no idea what's happening.
  • How can you not be interested in gay activism or the Nixon era!?!?!
    I'm only joking, I know people have different interests than me (though it'd be great if I had the power to change that merely by using internet blogging, which I believe some people her are under the impression is possible.)

    What I really wanted to comment on was the fact that you think people are merely "blaming" piracy and that they have "no idea what's happening."
    Not to sound harsh, but I don't think you have any better of an idea of why these movies are so low grossed as anyone else on here. And I think the piracy issue is a valid point. Because it's not just this year's movies that are on the all-time low list. The past few years have been, and I think the rise in piracy is at least partially responsible. Not totally, not in the least, but partially.
  • Say what you will, but the movies on that top 10 list FEEL long. I do believe that has an effect on viewership.
  • letuce
    i hear christian bale is planning to "bale out" on the show in support for TDK.
  • Anthony
    Where did your hear that?
  • Piracy is a super big factor, I remember seeing screeners for The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road, and other leaking out before, and around the time they were released. A critically acclaimed film available to watch in high quality for free from your computer, and it's free. Most people I know wouldn't say no to this, I include myself in it (although I did opt to see The Wrestler, Milk, Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, and others even with knowing about the screeners being readily available).
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