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Friday Box Office: Marley & Me Again

Posted on Saturday, January 3rd, 2009 by Steve Mason

EXCLUSIVE EARLY ESTIMATES: MARLEY & ME with $9.5M Friday & headed for $24.7M 3-day; Lovable lab could be the #1 live action pooch in box office history; BEDTIME STORIES #2 with $22M followed by BEN BUTTON at $18.1M; DEFIANCE targets $51K PTA while REV ROAD expands and still generates $21K per playdate!

As is tradition, Hollywood is in a holding pattern for New Year’s weekend. The only real changes from Christmas weekend are the debut Edward Zwick’s Defiance (Paramount Vantage) at two locations, the Dreamworks expansion of Revolutionary Road to 38 playdates and a 398 screen expansion for The Reader (Weinstein), but the three big December 25 blockbusters are holding strong.

The big winner continues to be Fox’s Marley & Me, which posted another $9.5M in sales on its second Friday for a new cume of $92M. The lovable lab will likely grab an estimated $24.7M by Sunday night for a 10-day cume of $107.16M. Marley is Fox’s second-best grossing release of 2008, trailing only March release Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M), This adaptation of John Grogan’s bestselling novel is headed for a possible $160M domestic, so it will ultimately be the studio’s #1 grossing release of the calendar year.

Marley & Me becomes Jennifer Anniston’s second consecutive $100M+ grossing picture, following 2006’s The Break-Up ($118.7M), and her third overall, joining Jim Carrey’s mega-hit Bruce Almighty ($242.8M). Canines continue to have massive box office appeal, but Marley may just be the biggest box office pooch of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 LIVE ACTION DOG MOVIES
1. Marley & Me - $160M cume (projected)
2. Scooby Doo - $153.2M cume
3. 101 Dalmations - $136.1M cume
4. Cats & Dogs - $93.3M cume
5. Beverly Hills Chihuahua - $93.1M cume

After a mildly disappointing start at #3 for the 4-day Christmas period, Adam Sandler’s Bedtime Stories (Disney) has been very steady this week at #2, and it added another $9M on Friday for an expected $22M or so by Monday. That will give the Adam Shankman-directed family film a total haul of $87.1M. I am projecting something in the $130M-$135M, which would be stronger than Sandler’s last three movies – You Don’t Mess with the Zohan ($100M cume), I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($120M) and Reign Over Me ($19.6M) – but shy of 2006’s Click ($137.3M cume).

Checking in at #3 for the day and the weekend is David Fincher’s Best Picture front-runner The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount). The Brad Pitt-Cate Blanchett Forrest Gump-like epic coaxed another $6.8M to start the weekend and what could be a possible $18.1M 3-day. If Academy Award voters make the mistake of leaving The Dark Knight out of the Best Picture field, Ben Button will easily be the biggest hit of the final 5. The critically-acclaimed film will have $78.75M in the bank by the end of the weekend, and $170M-$180M domestic is not out of the question as this picture continues to build momentum through awards season.

One of the most surprising nomination snubs of the early part of the awards season was the failure of Cate Blanchett to snag a nod from the Screen Actors Guild voters. With actors as the largest branch of Academy voters, does this signal that Cate could be left out of Hollywood’s big night?

Anne Hathaway, Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road and Meryl Streep are the sure-thing Oscar nominees. That leaves two slots for a group including Melissa Leo for Frozen River, Changeling’s Angelina Jolie, Sally Hawkins for Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky, Kristin Scott Thomas for I’ve Loved You So Long and Blanchett. My hunch is that Hawkins and Scott Thomas will receive Oscar nominations, edging awards season perennials Cate and Angie and indie fave Melissa Leo.

One of the things working against both Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett is a question that movie-goers, critics and pundits are all kicking around. “How much of those performances is acting and how much is make-up, special effects and Fincher’s technical virtuosity?” Anyone who has seen the movie knows what I mean. With the exception of Taraji P. Henson who “pops” off the screen, Benjamin Button is a directors’ movie as opposed to an acting piece. For me at least, it is about the big picture in Fincher’s head more than the work of the brilliant Blanchett and the equally good Pitt.

It is official. Tom Cruise has snatched Valkyrie (MGM/UA) from the jaws of once near-certain box office disaster. The Bryan Singer-directed historical thriller scored about $5.5M on Friday, and that should translate to a $14M weekend for a 10-day cume of $60.65M. The movie won’t get to $100M, but Cruise has dodged another Lions For Lambs-style embarrassment.

Jim Carrey’s Yes Man (Warner Bros), which opened the Friday before Christmas, has continued to perform steadily over the holidays. It will wrap the weekend in fifth place with about $13.9M after a $5.4M Friday. The high concept comedy will have banked just shy of $80M in its first 17 days of release.

The best Per Theatre Average for the weekend belongs to Defiance. This true Holocaust story starring Daniel Craig opened at two locations on New Year’s Eve to about $25,000, picked up $52,000 yesterday and another $38,000 today. The 3-day will be about $102,600 for an impressive PTA of $51K.

Sam Mendes’ Revolutionary Road has expanded successfully to 38 playdates with an expected $800,000 or so for a 3-day PTA of $21K. Meanwhile, the Weinsteins went wider with Golden Globe nominee The Reader (398 screens) with less success. Despite near-certain Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay, the picture is headed for just $495,000 for the frame and a PTA a tick below $3,500. The Reader will have $3.3M in total sales by Monday morning, but without a couple of Golden Globe wins on January 11, business is likely to remain sluggish.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Marley & Me (Fox) - $9.5M, $2,710 PTA, $91.96M cume
2. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9M, $2,443 PTA, $74.1M cume
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $6.8M, $2,276 PTA, $67.45M cume
4. Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $5.5M, $1,980 PTA, $52.15M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $5.4M, $1,573 PTA, $70.87M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $4.3M, $1,559 PTA, $54.33M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $2.7M, $874 PTA, $39.47M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $2.19M, $938 PTA, $71.64M cume
9. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.8M, $1,399 PTA, $15.51M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.62M, $2,647 PTA $25.62M cume
11. Twilight (Summit) - $1.61M, $853 PTA, $173.9M cume
12. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $1.48M, $593 PTA, $15.97M cume
13. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $1.26M, $547 PTA, $116.65M cume
14. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $900,000, $10,714 PTA, $7.77M cume
*Milk (Focus) - $590,000, $1,909 PTA, $15.85M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $500,000, $2,439 PTA, $5.39M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) - $495,000, $1,244 PTA, $2.44M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $300,000, $7,895 PTA, $689,000 cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $75,000, $4,167 PTA, $1.39M cume
*NEW – Defiance (Paramount) - $38,000, $19,000 PTA, $115,000 cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) - $34,000, $5,667 PTA, $254,000 cume
*Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) - $11,000, $2,200 PTA, $88,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Marley & Me (Fox) - $24.7M, $7,047 PTA, $107.16M cume
2. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $22M, $5,972 PTA, $87.1M cume
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $18.1M, $6,058 PTA, $78.75M cume
4. Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $14M, $5,040 PTA, $60.65M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $13.9M, $4,048 PTA, $79.37M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $10.96M, $3,976 PTA, $61M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $8.1M, $2,621 PTA, $44.87M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $5.92M, $2,534 PTA, $75.37M cume
9. Doubt (Miramax) - $5.22M, $4,056 PTA, $18.93M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.29M, $7,015 PTA $28.3M cume
11. Twilight (Summit) - $4.18M, $2,217 PTA, $176.47M cume
12. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $3.79M, $1,512 PTA, $18.27M cume
13. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $3.47M, $1,505 PTA, $118.86M cume
14. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $2.25M, $26,786 PTA, $9.12M cume
*Milk (Focus) - $1.53M, $4,964 PTA, $16.8M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) - $1.38M, $3,482 PTA, $3.33M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $1.3M, $6,341 PTA, $6.19M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $800,000, $21,053 PTA, $1.18M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $270,000, $15,000 PTA, $1.59M cume
*NEW – Defiance (Paramount) - $102,600, $51,300 PTA, $179,600 cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) - $100,000, $16,667 PTA, $320,000 cume
*Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) - $35,200 $7,040 PTA, $112,000 cume

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  • Anti-Septic
    I have about as much interest in seeing Marley & Me as getting a case of STD's. I swear, you put a dog or cat in a movie about "cow sh#t" and people would go see it.

    The last decent dog movie ever made was Turner and Hooch. There hasn't been a good one since, and Marley and Me is no exception.
  • Kokushi
    Also it shows when the family taking their kids to see anniston and sandler film they want in 10 years their kids will think The Happening and Disaster movie are masterpieces, do the parents know both wilson and sandler facking suck? why not rent toy story, wall-e, Finding Neverland or any other family movie.
  • I remember seeing that spoiler for 'marley & me' a few weeks back and I said I would never see it...my gf forced me to go see it anyway...and the movie wasn't as corny as I thought as it would be...I could actually relate to it, learning marley pretty much died the same way my dog did...Its not a masterpiece, but America loves dogs thats why Marley is on top...
  • Dogs x Holywood + Hockey Moms= $$$
  • 12. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $1.48M, $593 PTA, $15.97M cume

    I hope this film keeps steadily dropping down the financial takings table. I saw this on New Years Day in England and the cinema was full at 8:30pm (around 200+ people I'd say), by 11:30pm-ish however when the film had finished the cinema was less than half full. Almost half the audience left during this laughable, truly terrible film. On an ironic note, Frank Miller's 'The Spirit' managed to kill my New Year spirit...
  • Wow I'm sorry to hear about you're holiday. I guess that will teach you not to watch a Frank Miller on any holiday. I can't believe all those people walked out of the theater just because the movie was terrible. If I were there I'd have sure stayed til the end because Iput up some money for it, and to see if the movie really ended as bad as it started.
  • Hai
    Christ, Marley and Me is not Beverly Hills Chihuahua here. The book was awesome and heartwarming and the movie is pretty decent. It's not really even a comedy even though it's marketed as one, it's more of a drama. The ending is so sad and everyone in the theater was crying their eyes out, even the grown men. Pet lovers are eating this movie up.
  • "If Academy Award voters make the mistake of leaving The Dark Knight out of the Best Picture field, Ben Button will easily be the biggest hit of the final 5."

    Leaving The Dark Knight out of the Best Picture category would not be a mistake by any means.
  • Trying to get a rise out of a TDK fan, are we?
  • Not quite. I loved The Dark Knight. I thought it was fantastic and saw it three times in the theaters, and several more on DVD. But as Joe said below, I don't think it is Best Picture caliber.
  • I most definitely agree.
  • I don't know if Dark Knight will be one of the best picture films of the year or not but it certainly deserves some credit for the enormous amount of money it made plus the quality of the film.

    I understand there are a few people out there that didn't like the film but in my mind, it should have a good shot at a few awards.
  • Joe
    Just because it made a lot of money does not mean it is one of the five best movies of 2008. Going by that logic, Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indy 4, Hancock and Wall-E would be the five nominees.

    Dark Knight is not a perfect movie. It was quite good, and it will get some nominations. But in no way, shape, or form is it Best Picture caliber, at least in my opinion.
  • Oh I agree that just because of money they shouldn't be considered. what I was trying to say is that it broke so many records and actually is the 2nd highest grossing movie of all time. usually movies that go on to do that at least get nominated for something.

    I know it just tons of money and to you, it seems like it still lacked in quality or whatever reason you have against not liking The Dark Knight, but you have to admit, people will be talking about this movie for a few decades to come.
  • The box office is always SO disappointing. A freakin' movie about a dog tops Benjamin Button and the other Oscar noms? As well as Bedtime Stories? What's worse is that this new Sandler flick will gross more than Reign Over Me. How do movies like Bedtime Stores and You Don't Mess With The Zohan trump pure gold like Reign Over Me???
  • I guess alot of people really don't get Ben Button, either that or the promoting didn't grasp their attention.

    I really don't know why a movie about a dog is tearing up the Box Office. I'm sure alot of us didn't watch it because we were spoiled about the ending a few weeks ago. Yeah, that's a joke, I'm sure I'll never watch Marley & Me.
  • Ben Button hardly screams 'holiday family viewing'. I can see two adults, three kids, all rocking up to see a movie, they haven't decided which... they buy their candy and choose... let's see... the three hour epic drama? Or the one with the cute dog on the poster? Ohhh and it has that girl from Friends! Or the one with the funny guy all about the stories that come true!! That one looks good, too.

    Beyond us - buffs who read up and take it all in - the once maybe two or three times a year cinema family - the majority at Christmas - are not going to see the 3 hour drama. There's just no guarantee in it. Not in the trailer and not on the poster. So the parents agree they'll go see the family friendly comedy now with the kids, and perhaps rent Benjamin Button when it comes out on DVD one night.

    ... All resulting in the box office we have right now.

    Doesn't make Benjamin Button any less of a brilliant film. It's just too long and too boring looking. Honesty, it's that simple.
  • Just saying, I REALLY don't see how BB is an epic film. It doesn't have lush landscapes and giant battles or a story that spans a whole continent. Now I can see how watching someone go through life backwords is dramatic but def. not epic.. Just because it's a 3 hours film doesn't make it epic. Lord of the Rings=Epic, Kingdom of Heaven =Epic, Australia=Epic. BIG films.
  • I don't want to go into splitting hairs over what is considered an epic film, so let me just give you this link, and ask you to trust me - Benjamin Button is an epic film.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epic_film

    And in reply to your epic suggestions, LotR = Epic FANTASY, Kingdom of Heaven = Epic BATTLE/WAR, Australia = Epic PERIOD PIECE.

    As I stated, Benjamin Button = Epic DRAMA. Especially when you consider the criteria includes, but not exclusively, the following:

    "An epic is a genre of film which places emphasis on human drama on a grand scale. They are more ambitious in scope than other genres which helps to differentiate them from similar genres such as the period piece or adventure film. This often entails high production values, a sweeping musical score and an ensemble cast of bankable stars, placing them among the most expensive of films to produce. The genre likely derives its name from the similarities it shares with epic poetry.
  • You are correct, I'm totally agreeing with you. I agree with the whole scenario in the above post about how they would choose a movie to watch. It is kinda cool though to see that Ben Button isn't doing that bad at the Box Office. It's not doing Marley numbers but it's doing numbers that shows some of the general public still enjoy a good film.
  • Cinemas aren't helping either...i went to see ben button first day it came out...it was in the smallest screen int he complex(the same as the happening was played) while bedtime stories and that keaunu flick took the monster screens.
  • Joe
    I really wish people would do SOME homework before heading out to the movies. I worked concessions this summer, but a lot of the girls at the theater would rotate between box office and concessions. I remember them telling me that people would just walk up to the door and ask "What movies are good to see right now?"

    Maybe if it wasn't for that there wouldn't be a hundred sobbing people in every screening of M&M.
  • This may come as a shock to you, but most people don't have any interest in reading movie blogs or spending time doing tedious research about the film they want to waste time at on a Saturday night.
  • Will you speak about some of your interests?
  • To tell you the truth, when I read on here that The Spirit was going to be terrible, I hesitated to go see it and am happy that I did. I guess there are a few smart people that do their homework on movies around here.
  • Wow that's really terrible. I hate when theaters won't help out in a certain situation like that. I'm sure they sold out the first couple showings of Ben Button too.
  • Why is Scooby Doo counted amongst the 'live action dog movies'? The dog is animated! I don't get it... why does Scooby Doo count as live action and WALL•E counts as animation?
  • Because Scooby Doo was a live action film. WALLe was entirely animated. I had to think about that one too but that's the conclusion I came up with.
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