Box Office: Yes Man with $6.7M Friday and a likely $18.76M; Seven Pounds Headed for $15.63M

Posted on Saturday, December 20th, 2008 by Peter Sciretta

Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).

Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.

As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.

2002 – Men in Black II - $52.1M opening - $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II - $46.5M opening - $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot - $52.1M opening - $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale - $47.6M opening - $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch - $43.1M opening - $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness - $26.5M opening - $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend - $77.2M opening - $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock - $62.6M opening - $227.9M cume

Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.

Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.

As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.

Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) - $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) - $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) - $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume

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  • After having 8 films in a row that grossed over 100 million and one less than 100 million. I'd still say WS is the top actor. Because of 1 film that DIDN'T go over 100 doesn't mean his career is over. Just means that it didn't get over 100 mil. lol
  • After having 8 films in a row that grossed over 100 million and one less than 100 million. I'd still say WS is the top actor. Because of 1 film that DIDN'T go over 100 doesn't mean his career is over. Just means that it didn't get over 100 mil.
  • The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top
  • Jammo
    Why did you do that?
  • filmkid
    Seven Pounds wont make massive sales cause its xmas time people are most likely buying presents and buyin xmas food this will not effect Will Smith at all plus the movie that Will Smith makes way over 100m summer time films Will Smith still rules the blockbuster films
  • Dr. Phil
    "xmas" is a huge time for movies. People are off work for a stretch and together in large groups. They escape their family right next to them, in a theater. They might see 2 movies in one week... *gasp*!
  • Matt
    I still think there is hope for Yes Man to make over 100 million. Fun With Dick and Jane had a similar opening three years ago and it made over 100 million. As for Seven Pounds, the movie sure looked dumb and I'm pretty sure Will's streak is over.
  • filmkid
    Will Smith streak is never over
  • For some reason, seeing Warner Brothers take the top spot makes me really happy... I guess other studios like Sony and Fox have just irked me in recent years.
  • The heavy snow in the north east kept movie goers away from theaters on friday. Many theaters in my area in PA were closed!

    Chuck
  • Josh
    No, Its that they don't like these crappy ready made driveling films.
  • Tony
    I was just about to mention the snow storms in the northeast. Glad someone else pointed it out. I have no doubt that Saturday & Sunday will pick up greatly over Friday because almost a quarter of the country was snowed in. I think Yes Man will get at least $20 million and over $125 million total by the time it's done. Fun With Dick & Jane only started with $14 million on the same weekend and look where that ended up - $110 million.
  • Sauce
    ^---See Above Posts---^. Snow and ice hammered us here in the cold, dark, north east. No one did much of anything. Wonder how often movies suffer in areas because of weather.
  • Joe
    We also got hammered here in Massachusetts. I wanted to see Slumdog this weekend, but between the storm last night, blowover still affecting us today, and another storm headed our way tomorrow, I probably won't see it until Tuesday (maybe Monday).
  • adam
    Sex and the City and Journey to the Center of the Earth were New Line success stories, not Warner Bros.

    It a bit unfair they count towards to WB 2008 record. WB actually turned down Sex and the City.
  • Joe
    No one went out in the Northeast, we all got way too much snow. I was going to head to the movies last night but was snowed in. Not to mention a large majority of New Hampshire and Vermont still have no power from the ice storms last week. I'd say it's more the weather's fault, not the films themselves.
  • I'm in NJ. Most stores were open and such surprisingly. We didn't get that much snow but we got enough to close schools. I'm in norther NJ btw, not that southern part
  • Mo-Mo
    i actually enjoyed "Seven Pounds", even though i figured the whole movie out about 5 minutes in. i can see where people found it pretentious and dumb. i'm also fairly certain that my girlfriend and i were the youngest people in the theater by at least 20 years. it definitely felt like Oscar bait for Smith, though i think Rosario Dawson would get a supporting actress nod over him for best actor.
  • That's what I thought about her. I really hope she does with that performance.
  • I've never thought much of Will Smith, for whatever reason. His acting is so-so, and I just never saw the big deal about him (and thought even from the long preview I saw 7 Pounds looked self-important and pretentious), so this doesn't shock me.
  • junior
    This tracking/box office stuff is tremendously dull. It's too bad it's become such a focus
    for anyone other than the studios(not just here on slashfilm in general really)
  • Mark
    I love this kind of articles. I'm interested in this topic and they are very well written. Just skip them if you find them 'dull'.
  • I think every actor has to hit a point where they have a film that comes up short, Seven Pounds seems to be that one for Will Smith. His record of consecutive $100+ hits is rather notable, but at the same time not unexpected. The list includes rather basic big box office films, the kind that everyone is looking for during the summer. I still like Will Smith, but I don't think anyone will lose sleep over him having a critical and commercial flop.
  • Tanski
    I manage a movie theater with 12 screens. We did 250 people all day. The weather had a lot to do with the low cume
  • Jim Carrey make take first and Will Smith may take second...but it's with 2 terrible movies in a race featuring quite a few other terrible movies.
  • Nvm
    Yeah....Seven Pounds wasn't really good at all. Really disappointing.
  • Schme
    Smee! What about Smee!?

    OH NO! Smee's ME!
  • I just have to say the Seven Pounds is a really great movie. It might start out slow at the Box Office but great word of mouth will make this movie alot of money. If you are a Will Smith fan, you will enjoy this film, I guarantee it.
  • Mo-Mo
    i'm glad to see someone else enjoyed it. and i agree about the word of mouth thing, i believe "Pursuit of Happyness" opened with like 25mil and finished with 160mil, so that may have some indication. however, once the dark subject matter becomes more available online, i think some poeple may be turned off.
  • This gives me great hope that in the coming years Will Smith may not have so many opportunities to annoy me, and others who find his "films" and "acting" offensively vacuous.
  • ALD
    Having being lucky enough to see a preview of this movie in the UK all I can say is..............Gob Bless America a nation of mostly soulless, shallow money obsessed folk.
    Thank god for the rest of the world and may they continue to follow his and Will Smith example. I think you have all missed the point. One word "Story telling" that’s all a movies is. Not character assassination or how many dollars it should make!
    Will its ok in Europe we get you! More Like this please.

    ALD
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