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Can IMDB Predict The Academy Awards?

Posted on Thursday, October 16th, 2008 by Peter Sciretta

I’ve always found the average user ratings on the Internet Movie Database to be the most reliable measure of entertainment, at least when it comes to my personal cinematic tastes. Is it always right? No, but I tend to agree with the average rankings on IMDb more than Rotten Tomatoes (which is sometimes too pretentious), Netflix (five stars isn’t enough) and Flixter. But can IMDB predict the Oscars? Awards Daily has a theory that the IMDB top 250 list is a good indication of Best Picture Nomination consideration. Here are the facts:

11 of the top 15 movies on IMDb were Best Picture Nominees (73%)
32 of the top 50 movies on IMDb were BPNs (64%)

Discounting the four foreign language titles, the four neglected Hitchcock films, and the two David Fincher titles, the percentage rises to 80%. So Awards Daily theorizes that “unless your name is Hitchcock or you speak a funny language, your movie on this top 50 list stands a 4 out of 5 chance of getting a Best Picture nomination.”

One could argue that hindsight is 20/20, and obviously IMDb wasn’t around when many of these films were released. So there is no way to see their ranking before they were nominated, but whatever.

So we have this theory, but what does it tell us? Well, not much actually. The only two films released in 2008 that are ranked in the IMDb’s top 50 are The Dark Knight (#4) and WALL-E (#31). Read into that what you will. Awards Daily theorizes that Christopher Nolan could join the ranks of Hitchcock and Fincher as a director who is neglected by the Academy of Motion Arts and Sciences.

Also, could WALL-E’s placement mean that the film has a chance at a Best Picture nomination? It will surely win best animated feature, but I doubt it will get a Best Picture nod. Although, it is bound to happen eventually. Last year Brad Bird’s Ratatouille had substantial Best Picture Oscar buzz.

Comments

John PÃ¥lsson

It's probably possible but i highly doubt it because imdb movie ranking is often so wrong.
I dont say it impossible but its highly doubtful in my opinion.

Endone

The Dark Knight deserves an Oscar! Heath Ledger also deserves one!...

As for WALL-E, I never actually thought about it. And now after reading this article I also agree that it is very much possible to be nominated for Best Picture. It will most definitely take the gold for best animation! After all this is one of the best animations for the past 10-20 years...

Joanna

I think the biggest problem with this list, which you alluded to yourself, is that most of these films were released (and won) before imdb rankings were out or big. It becomes a question of the chicken and egg: would they have been at the top anyway, or did the Oscar nod lead to higher rankings? A bit of both probably, but it's not good science.

Fun idea, but soon to change I fear. I've found that I agree with you on imdb being a good gauge for my taste. But, I balk at a list that is so controlled by rabid fans. Dark Knight the number one or even number four movie of all time? Even I worry about that, and I loved the film. Plus, if the people who post on imdb messageboards have a say on the list that automatically makes it less credible to me ;)

Bart

I would disagree and say that this is wrong being that neither of those films will get nominated for best picture and definitely not win.

AJ

All pixar films have had substantial Best Picture buzz and each one gets stronger because none of their films have been nominated, yet. Wall*E may be that film because it has that hollywood-liberal message with a hopeful ending which may be what this country needs. However, Disney does not push hard for its films and lacks in its awards department. The Dark Knight is too big to ignore and with former front-runners falling (Frost/Nixon) it shouldn't have a problem getting nominated.

starscream9289

There is not a doubt in my mind that Wall-E will be nominated. The question is: Will it beat Kung Fu Panda?

Nish

What would be most interesting is to see the IMDb's ratings for films before they get nominated and then after. IMDB is more a predictor of popular opinion which does not usually trasnslate into and Oscar. As a scientist, this is an interesting theory but hasn't been tested very well.

Phil

With all the talk about The Oscars desperately trying to boost ratings I think it's pretty clear that TDK will get a Best Picture nomination. It's a lock for Ledger at this point, but they'll get a lot more buzz for the show if TDK gets an assload of noms.

Plus, 100% of all the films that have made $500M+ domestically have won for Best Picture, :-P

Kip Mooney

I think WALL-E is a lock for Best Animated Feature, but because of that category it has no shot at a BP nomination. Sorry. And I think Dark Knight will get a BP nod or Nolan will get a shout-out for Best Director, but not both. I'm leaning more towards Best Picture.

Jack

i also think The Dark Knight has a very good chance to get nominated. this could also be the year for Fincher with Benjamin Button.

Water

I find IMDb's User ratings the most reliable for my own taste as well. Much more than RottenTomatoes, and yes, even more than Roger Ebert (whose website I check weekly and enjoy immensely). Glad to see I'm not the only one!

helicopters

this theory doesn't take into account the effect of fanboyism.

Vile82

Dark Knight of course will get some awards...

Elpizo

wishful thinking

Ryan Adams

Hey, thanks for linking. Peter. Our readers brought up the same issue about 20/20 hindsight and the fact that IMDb wasn't around when The Godfather opened.

Since we can't look at past history of IMDb's ever-changing Top 250 lists, I can only rely on my memory -- and I only started paying attention last year.

I know this for certain: In December 2007, There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men were elbowing each other at the #23 and #24 spots on the list. Juno had landed around 100 (#131, I think). Atonement kept sneaking in at the bottom of the list, in the 230's, 240's but kept getting bounced out.

So the only BP nominee from last year that wasn't on the Top 250 in advance of the nominations was Michael Clayton. Films that were on the list, but didn't make Oscar's final 5? The Bourne Ultimatum, Ratatouille, and Le Scaphandre et le papillon. Ratatouille won the Best Animated Feature Oscar, and Julian Schnabel was nominated for Best Director.

So even the movies on the Top 250 that didn't make the cut for BP still scored very well in the nominations.

Now that our readers at AD have helped me refine my vague theory, I think that the Top 250 list is actually a better indicator of what's happening at the precise moment in time during the final weeks before nominations are announced. As the months and years slip by, "buzz" movies slip off the list, and established classics blur the connections between IMDb voter and AMPAS voters.

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