More Than Half of DVD Sales will be Blu-ray by 2012

Posted on Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 at 1:43 pm by: Peter Sciretta

Futuresource Consulting projecting that more than half of all DVD sales in the United States will be Blu-ray by the year 2012. I’m finding it harder and harder to believe that we’ll have hoverboards and flying cars just three years later.

via: Cinematech

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adam Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 1:58 pm

61% will be blu ray sales? keep dreaming. 39% of sales going to blu ray would generous in my opinion.

NINJARTIST Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

If that becomes a reality, I could see studios begin to skimp on regular DVDs, particularly with ispecial editions… My purchases might decrease, because I’m nowhere near to buying a Blu-ray player.

Aqualeo Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

I doubt i’ll ever fell i need to own a blu ray DVD. They just cost to much for little improvement in picture. Plus, in 5 or so years the next gen of dvd will be out anyway.

Chump Force 1 Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm

Price will ultimately determine how quickly this happens, but I don’t doubt for a minute it will come sooner then 2012. Technology moves at lighting speed and consumers’ hunger for the latest, coolest gadget is even more pronounced.

Look how cheap it is to buy a blu-ray player right now over this time last year. VHS hung around for a while, but once DVD players started selling for $50–$60 bucks a couple of years ago and DVD’s themselves came down in price VHS was dead.

As blu-ray players and discs themselves become more affordable, the death of DVD won’t be far behind.

Emmanuel Muñoz Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:28 pm

i know i maybe alone on this, but the whole blu-ray thing just seems like one huge scam. i understand that the picture is better and crisper, but i do not want to have to replace my dvd’s it. I find it to be too expensive for so little.

Do blu-ray players play dvd’s?

vadmspartan Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

Blu-ray players do play DVDs. In fact some players “upscale” them, or maybe all of them do that.

By 2012 the price of players and the disks should be significantly lower than where they are today.

domino Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

This seems way to optimistic on their part, I feel like they don’t get it that there isn’t going to be the same type of sea change as there was from VHS to DVD. There just aren’t enough benefits and improvements over DVD to justify this for most people, especially with streaming and downloads becoming more viable during the same time.

emily Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:01 pm

i don’t want to switch over. i’m still bitter than i have some movies on vhs and not dvd - disney movies mostly. i’m just confused by blu-ray in general. such a stupid name for a disc, imo.

charles Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:04 pm

Please. I have a blu ray player in my PS3. I don’t even buy blu ray. Higher quality my ass. DVD is just fine.

Jmoney Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

can someone provide a link that explains whether Blu-Ray players will play standard dvds? i’ve heard they do, and i’ve heard they don’t, and i’ve heard some do and some don’t. anyone know of a website that lays it all out?

mike Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

First of all there is way more than little improvement in picture for Blu compared to DVD, the thing is that you need a good TV to be able to view the differences (1080p and at least 40 inches, depending on how close to are sitting to the TV).

Also Blu can hold a lot more data so also much better audio and tons more special features…

I have a PS3 and have a good amount of Blu movies and pretty much only buy them now and am extremely happy with those purchases.

Also prices have dropped and will continue to drop especially this holiday season, it is worth a look if have the equipment to watch/listen to these hi-fi discs.

J.D. Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:29 pm

True, but the world is going to end in 2012 anyway, so I don’t think it matters all that much.

Kip Mooney Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

That means that over half of TVs will be HDTVs. I don’t buy it. Especially if they have to come up with a box to upconvert TVs that don’t receive cable. Keep dreaming, Sony.

Peter Sciretta Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 3:44 pm

Kip: Not true at all. Most people who own tvs don’t buy DVDs. I’m sure most earlier adopters will buy movies at a 10:1 ratio to people like say, my father. Just because 61% of the dvd sales are blu ray doesn’t mean 61% of the tvs must be hdtv.

Captain Awesome Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 4:32 pm

I love these “consultant” predictions…

I wish I could find that month-to-month chart showing DVD sales versus HD-DVD sales. DVD is so far ahead it’s embarassing.

I do predict what will happen is blu-ray will finally hit an average sales peak around that time. And by avergae I mean ‘maybe’ a 10 percent break into the home media market. But it won’t be that far ahead, not by a long shot.

Captain Awesome Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 4:39 pm

Like someone else said here.

Ultra-cheap rent program like Netflix and “at-home” HD channel signals (which aren’t as high in resolution) but still a lot nicer. Isn’t much of an incentive and a technical jump for people to make a complete leap to Blu-ray. The market that is buying into it are the hardcore enthusiast crowd. And that’s very tiny compared to the average joe crowd that DVD owns for miles.

When you need to “sell” something like BR, you need to try and sell them a brand new HDTV, so they can see the real graphical difference. But it’s still not enough to sway the massive market.

The jump from VHS to DVD was rapid because the technical leap was immense enough for people of any age range to notice it, even on regular tv’s.

Goobity Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 6:33 pm

I don’t know if these numbers will pan out. By 2012, most physical media (cd’s, dvd’s and blu-ray) will be dropped in favor of direct download or streaming; most of which will be HD content. Why switch formats when I can watch and record HD movies through my cable provider? There will still be ‘users’, but they won’t last too long…tried to buy a VHS tape recently?

Oh Blair Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 6:44 pm

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20080819123437_Toshiba_Unveils_DVD_Player_with_Advanced_Upconverting_Capabilities.html

BLUE RAY KILLER, I HOPE LOL

Rob Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 8:13 pm

There is a decent chance that in two years that Blu-Ray players will be so inexpensive that manufacturers discontinue making DVD players. If a Blu-Ray player is the same price as a DVD player or very close, why would someone buy a DVD player over a Blu-Ray. I am betting that is what this study is betting on.

diesel Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 10:42 pm

I love my Blu-ray and will never buy a DVD again. I live in Sweden and would be interested in seeing projections for my country. Although I doubt that southern Europe (Italy etc) will be that far ahead. Slightly optimistic figures imo.

diesel Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 10:43 pm

@ Rob: good point, think you might be right.

ltclarke Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 11:09 pm

I really need to see the blueray player price coming down as well as the media, before I can believe this. Until this happens, the vast majority of people are happy with their still cheap, upscaling dvd players and existing dvds.

Also, the market for rebuying movies (rebuy existing vhs movies you had, on dvd), won’t happen nearly as much for blue ray.

the quality alone isnt enough to sell the new hardware. with dvd over vhs, there was more than a quality factor that made it so appealing. instant controls, special features, etc. the quality was nice, but if that is the only benefit for blueray, most wont care.

Presto117 Says:

August 19th, 2008 at 11:59 pm

I have a PS3 (I bought one after HD DVD bit the dust. I bought HD DVD cause I liked the movies they had more) for Blu-Ray.

I’m a huge tech whore and I try not to buy DVDs if I can.

He’ll, I try not to rent DVDs if I can.

It always depends on the movie you buy on blu, but the picture does look a lot better and I love it.

F***, I just watch pirates of the Caribbean 1j ust to look at it.

Rosario Says:

August 20th, 2008 at 3:18 am

The thing with blu-ray is that for the modern everyday person, there is not that much of a difference. Compare going from VHS to DVD, their was huge difference. Going from DVD to Blu-Ray, not so much. I personally will buy a Blu-Ray player once prices go down. I honestly dont see that happening for another yr or more.

Eduke Says:

August 20th, 2008 at 7:44 am

and come on… at least here in Argentina a Blue ray player cost 1000 USD, so it really has that much to offer?, i mean, is it really worth it?, is like allmoust every body is saying, the dvd was a Grate leap. and i dont belive that these tecnology is worth 1000 USD, i will buy a blue ray player when it costo no more than 150 USD, and i am sure that is not going to be Sony.

macfactor Says:

August 20th, 2008 at 8:24 am

I am skipping the disc format war this time. I personally think disc media is dead anyway. By 2012 it will be all about downloads not discs.

790 Says:

August 20th, 2008 at 12:01 pm

Bluray players will drop in price when the next video medium is unvailed. This is the natural course of technology.

(Keep in mind),,,
All these figures are based on a somewhat heathy economy.

Personally I see Bluray becoming obsolete right around that time.
Dvds will have a strong life as they play in all computers. A market that Bluray dosnt cover. Dvd’s are not just for watching movies.

The data content size has allready been surpassed by Microsoft, they are sitting on the “Enhanced dvd” technology right now,,,,

(IMO),,,BluRay wont last very long at all,,,, most of the statisitcs and Bluray BS, is funded by groups that have a stake in the longterm marketing of Bluray.
Bluray wont last, it will become obsolite by 2014 easy ,,,, and all the upgraded Bluray discs that your paying for now will be worthless.
If the planets still here.
Lol JD,,,,,,,

.sean Says:

August 20th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

the only movie that made my jaw drop on Blu-Ray was Finding Nemo. Amazing detail that looked beautiful.

with movies (like pirates of the carribean…ect), the Blu-ray quality reveals the fakeness of the sets, flaws in the special effects, and all the actors look like they’re wearing make-up.

Ever watch live TV in High Def? I watched an episode of American Idol and I could count each of Simon’s chest hairs. Then I puked.

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More Than Half of DVD Sales will be Blu-ray by 2012