What is wrong with Speed Racer (Warner Bros)? A studio exec just filled me in on the latest industry tracking for the Wachowski Brothers’ update of the late 1960’s anime cartoon classic, and this picture has real problems in the marketplace.
The tracking has improved a bit, especially since Iron Man moved from Opening This Week to Currently in Release in audience surveys. Un-Aided Awareness has popped to 11% and the Total Aware is at a solid 83%. Definite Interest, however, is a concern at just 26%, trailing Fox’s What Happens in Vegas also set for Friday.
Warner Bros execs have to be relieved that the First Choice for this candy-colored Emile Hirsch thrill-ride is at 13%, an identical number to the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy also at 13%. A decent 14% of Males Under 25 and the same number of Males 25 Plus say Speed Racer is their First Choice this weekend, and Moms seem open to bringing the kids with 17% of Females 25 Plus saying it is their top choice.
There is a nostalgia factor with Speed Racer, but for it to succeed, it needs to play as an all-out family film. December’s Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) might be a good benchmark. It went off with 36% Definite Interest and a 24% First Choice, much stronger numbers than Speed, en route to a $44.3M opening.
Complicating things for both new releases is the fact that, according to one studio exec without a dog in the fight this weekend, “Paramount knows that there’s blood in the water here. They have been watching Speed Racer tracking, and they see an opportunity. They have been ramping up media buys for Iron Man.” Look for Paramount to remind people that this Robert Downey, Jr. mega-hit is rated PG-13 and appropriate for the whole family.
I will not go online with my final weekend prediction for Speed Racer until Thursday, but as of Tuesday morning, it is hard to imagine it getting past $35M in its first 3 days. What Happens in Vegas looks like it is headed for $18M-$22M. I am expecting Iron Man to win a 2nd consecutive weekend, not unlike 2007’s Spider-Man 3 and 2006’s, which both started the lucrative summer blockbuster season and held strong for 2 weekend wins.
Read More on Fantasy Moguls.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
It’SA ME!…..MARIO!!
May 6th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
People should go see this just to support Dan Conner.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
FLOPberg straight ahead!
May 6th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Is it just me, or does Christina Ricci look like Moe Howard?
May 6th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Another problem no one seems to mention is the running time. I saw SR on Saturday and, at over two hours, it drags A LOT in the middle. Over two hours is a tough, tough sell to the kiddies, no matter how purty the visuals might be. And they are good, almost great in places, but they’re also horrible in a few scenes.
This movie does have a heart though and it is crazy zany fun, so that might work. This is a hard one to call.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Frankly, I just don’t see the nostalgia factor for SR and Alvin and the Chipmunks to be remotely similar. Kids know and love Alvin. It’s a known title and one that has remained strong over the years. Ask 10 kids if they know who Alvin and the Chipmunks (before the Fox movie)are and I guarantee 9-10 will tell you. Of those same 10 kids, I’d be surprised if 3 knew of Speed Racer.
In fact I find it difficult to believe that there’s really much brand awareness for Speed beyond 25 and older audiences (and 25 is being VERY generous).
Guess we’ll know shortly.
Hooper X
May 6th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
LMAO Damnit Mario! You beat me to it!
May 6th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I’m more than sold. If I get an open seat with some leg room, it will all be bonus.
This just strikes me as one of those films that isn’t going to be “cool to like”…until you find out your buddy went to the matinee last weekend. etc.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
i personally think the graphics is outta the world and soemthing enw , considering the target audience/and the history of the series. SR can never be a action movie without losing its cartoonish essence. But from the trailers and promos, im like I WANT to watch in the big screen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 6th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Well I’ll see it, but you’re absolutely right — it needed to be marketed as a family film above all action and CG. Tough to rationalize when you’re spending who knows how much on special effects for this one, but families are the only market for this film.
Unfortunately, with it being 3 days away from release, it’s far too late for that now.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
I’ll probably be revisiting Iron Man instead of checking out Speed Racer.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
I’m still going to see it…but two hours? Jesus, that’s even pushing my limits. Well, anyway, I’m still going. I can’t wait to see how all the effects look on the big screen. I’m curious as to how many females will actually go. I’m going with a couple of girlfriends, but no one else we know seems very interested.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
lol @ Dutch’s comment
May 7th, 2008 at 4:55 am
They dropped the ball big time. Even if this film is good it won’t make its budget back this weekend. They should have reviewed this for critics two weeks in advance. They needed all the support they could get for this one.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:45 am
I went to see Speed Racer at a free preview last night, and I have to say I was pleasantly surprised. The first forty minutes are very gripping, the visuals and editing are revolutionary, and the ending serves the story well. Things get a bit muddled in the middle, but the movie is a lot better than the trailers suggest.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Saw it last night and I like it.
Also the crowd (mostly familys) loved it as well.
Not as kiddie of a film as you might think but def as colorful and trippy as you thought.
If your’re on the fence, go you’ll love it!
If you think the trailer looks terrible you will find more of the same inside. I hope it’s not the flop that peeps think it’s gonna be, it deserves more!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Well, the movie looks really stupid… so maybe that’s the problem.
July 28th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Personally, i agree with the overall comments posted, but if i may; the part where he’s sitting at school and imagining he’s a racer is so cute<3 (you know, the part they show in the ‘upcoming attractions’… true, it is sort of meaningless in the middle and i’d never thought that i of all people would take in a movie about racing, but there you go!