After grabbing $5.2M in Thursday night advance screenings, Iron Man (Paramount) has soared to an estimated $35M on Friday. With near-perfect reviews, an A-list cast, including Robert Downey, Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow and Terrence Howard, and excellent word-of-mouth, this first film financed by Marvel Studios will likely power to a staggering $91M+ by Monday morning, and that’s a conservative estimate.
Paramount is on top of the world. This is the first of 4 guaranteed $100M blockbusters set for release this summer. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is 3 weeks away, followed by Kung Fu Panda on June 6, and Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder, again starring Robert Downey Jr., on August 15. This run of box office success will likely drive Paramount to a $1 billion dollar summer and make the Melrose gang Hollywood’s #1 grossing studio for a second consecutive year.
A $100M opening is still a distinct possibility for Iron Man. That $35M Friday apparently includes the portion of the $5.2M Thursday preview business that came after midnight. If the film can pull huge family audiences on Saturday, and come in with another $35M+, it will likely break the $100M barrier.
Billionaire Tony Stark and his alter ego are no match for last year’s May sequels Spider-Man 3, Pirates 3 and Shrek 3, which all topped $114M+ in their opening weekends. Still, Iron Man will likely go down as at least the 12th-best 3-day opening of all time and the 2nd-best opening ever for a non-sequel, trailing only the original Spider-Man. Plus Iron Man cracks the All-Time Top 10 Openings for Comic Book Adaptations at #4.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION OPENINGS
1. Spider-Man 3 - $151.1M
2. Spider-Man - $114.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
4. Iron Man - $91M (estimate)
5. X2: X-Men United - $85.5M
6. Spider-Man 2 - $88.1M
7. 300 - $70.8M
8. Fantastic Four - $56M
9. X-Men - $54.4M
10. Superman Returns - $52.5M
Sony’s poorly-reviewed romantic comedy Made of Honor, starring Patrick Dempsey, has limped out of the starting gate with a disappointing $5.5 on opening day. With a projected weekend take of only $15.7M this film will not do much to burnish Dempsey’s big screen resume.
Holdover Baby Mama (Universal) added $3.5M Friday, and it should finish the frame with $10.3M or so, down 41%, but good enough for 3rd place. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) generated $1.7M Friday, and it will likely make $5.7M for the weekend, finishing 4th. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) managed just $2M on its 2nd Friday, and it is headed for a 3-day of $5.4M, representing a 64% drop.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Iron Man (Paramount) – $35M - $8,526 PTA - $35M cume
2. NEW – Made of Honor (Sony) - $5.5M - $2,015 PTA - $5.5M cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) – $3.5M - $1,374 PTA - $25.4M cume
4. NEW – Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $2M - $786 PTA - $21.2M cume
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1.7M- $593 PTA - $40.3M cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $975,000 - $329 PTA - $41.8M cume
7. Prom Night (Sony) - $720,000 - $296 PTA - $39.6M cume
8. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $620,000 - $250 PTA - $40.4M cume
9. 21 (Sony) - $570,000 - $254 PTA - $77.5M cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) - $390,000 - $221 PTA - $14.2M cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $310,000 - $212 PTA - $148.7M cume
12. Deception (Fox) - $200,000 - $100 PTA - $3.3M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) - $123,000 - $946 PTA - $1M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $54,000 - $446 PTA - $665,000 cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $29,000 - $547 PTA - $153,000 cume
*NEW – Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) - $17,670 - $589 PTA - $17,670 cume
*NEW – Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $15,894 - $2,649 PTA - $15,894 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) - $12,000 - $1,500 PTA - $213,000 cume
*NEW – Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $9,290 - $1,858 PTA - $9,290 cume
*Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) - $6,000 - $600 PTA - $29,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $3,852 - $3,852 PTA - $42,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) - $3,029 - $1,514 PTA - $113,000 cume
*NEW – Viva (Vagrant Films) - $2,716 - $2,716 PTA - $2,716 cume
*NEW – When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) - $2,027 - $2,027 PTA - $2,027 cume
*War Inc. (Independent) - $880 - $880 PTA - $17,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Iron Man (Paramount) – $91M - $22,168 PTA - $84M cume
2. NEW – Made of Honor (Sony) - $15.7M - $5,753PTA - $15.7M cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) – $10.5M - $4,121 PTA - $32.4M cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $5.7M- $1,987PTA - $44.3M cume
5. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $5.4M - $2,122 PTA - $24.6M cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $3.41M - $1,153 PTA - $44.3 cume
7. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $2.38M - $963 PTA - $42.1M cume
8. Prom Night (Sony) - $1.98M - $813 PTA - $40.9M cume
9. 21 (Sony) - $1.79M - $801 PTA - $78.7M cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) - $1.34M - $762 PTA - $15.1M cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $1.19M - $816 PTA - $149.6M cume
12. Deception (Fox) - $610,000 - $305 PTA - $3.7M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) - $535,000 - $4,115 PTA - $1.5M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $235,000 - $1,942 PTA - $846,000 cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $111,000 - $2,094 PTA - $235,000 cume
*NEW – Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) - $68,000 - $2,267 PTA - $68,000 cume
*NEW – Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $56,000 - $9,333 PTA - $56,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) - $46,000 - $5,750 PTA - $247,000 cume
*NEW – Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $34,000- $6,800 PTA - $34,000 cume
*Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) - $21,000 - $2,100 PTA - $44,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $13,481- $13,481 PTA - $51,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) - $10,297 - $5,149 PTA - $120,000 cume
*NEW – Viva (Vagrant Films) - $8,148 - $8,148 PTA - $8,148 cume
*NEW – When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) - $6,081 - $6,081 PTA - $6,081 cume
*War Inc. (Independent) - $2,596 - $2,596 PTA - $19,000 cume
Read More on Fantasy Moguls.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:37 am
It’s hard to think that The Dark Knight will probably do even better (it will, but it’s hard to think it).
The Iron Man sequel will reach Spiderman 3 numbers. Hell, The Dark Knight could set a new mark for “Iron Man 2″ to aim for; TDK is just so unpredictable.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:45 am
Saw Iron Man this afternoon and a few things stood out:
1. The trailers attatched were, for the most part, stellar. The Happening was a decent trailer. The Dark Knight trailer drew tons of cheers and rightly so. I wasn’t so sure about the Hulk but after seeing the new trailer I’m actually excited about seeing the movie. And while I know this comment will draw the ire of fans around the world, I really was indifferent about the new Indy movie. The first trailer was unimpressive to me. The new trailer got me psyched to see it.
2. There were A LOT of young kids with with their parents at the showing I attended. And when I say young I mean 4-10 years old. I was pretty surprised. But the reaction to the movie on whole was excellent. Laughs and gasps in all the right places.
As for the movie itself, I really enjoyed it. If I had one complaint it might be that I enjoy the “Bad” Robert Downey Jr character. And that only lasted for about 1/4 of the movie. While he still has some great one liners and quips after the first 1/4, they are toned down to reconcile with his change of heart. I guess I’d like to have seen a bit more of the bad guy. That being said, Downey was INSPIRED casting! This movie would have had a hard time even getting me to the theatre if he hadn’t been in it. And he was pretty much everything I could have asked for.
All and all, I think it was a great start to the summer movie season.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 am
Thank god its doing good. I hope we hear about iron man 2.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:24 am
Hey Steve, I think you got #5 and #6 mixed up unless there is a typo in the numbers. $88.1M > $85.5M ?
5. X2: X-Men United - $85.5M
6. Spider-Man 2 - $88.1M
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am
Chances are that, at least in Kentucky anyway, there won’t be many people hitting the theater tonight because of the Kentucky Derby and all of the Derby parties. Tomorrow night, however, being the first week of Summer for many college students and the last day of the first weekEND before summer (many will have slept off their hangovers by then), I think there will be a spike in sales.
Personally I’m waiting until Sunday evening because of the Derby and because of a late-night drink-a-thon with the coworkers last night. Didn’t go on Thursday because of Finals (I’m sure it was the same for many others, too) so Sunday is the sweetspot.
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
The Dark Knight won’t do as well due to the fact it will be a lot harder to take kids to. It looks frightening, and as a parent, I’ll probably see it with my wife before I let my six year old watch it.
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
My dad bought me the Killing Joke when I was 7 and I turned out fine.