Will Grand Theft Auto 4 Hurt Iron Man’s Box Office? This is a question I’ve been thinking about for a while now. When I wrote the post Rant: Sorry Mario, Video Games Will NEVER Overtake Movies last month, I intended to include a section on how a video game release could never negatively effect the release of a theatrical movie. But to be honest with you: I did the math, and the math scared me. Here is my initial thought process:
Grand Theft Auto 4 is projected to make $350-$400+ million in it’s first week of release.
This means that 5 to 6 million copies of the game will be sold.
Polls have shown that the same audience/demographic for video games is also the same for seeing movies in the theater.
If each of those 6 million people chose to play GTA over seeing Iron Man on the big screen, that would be a $41 million hit to Paramount’s opening weekend (I came to this number using BOM’s average movie ticket price of $6.82, which might even be lower than reality)
At first glance, this doesn’t sound good.
BUT the question is: How many GTA4 gamers will choose not to buy a ticket to Iron Man either due to either available time (too busy playing the game) or available money (spent their entire entertainment allowance on the game)?
The more and more I really thought about this question, and the more and more people I was able to talk to about the issue has me solidified my belief that…
a video game purchase is not enough to keep the kids out of the movie theater.
If a movie ticket cost more than $7-$10 (let’s say $60) then maybe consumers would be forced to choose. But right now the price of a movie ticket is not enough to warrant a money spending decision. And most of the target audience (under 30-year old men) understand the concept of the on demand society, and are completely willing to save their game, go to a movie, and come back to play another day. After all, we all need a break (with exception of those nuts playing WOW who pee in cups because they can’t leave the computer for one minute to go to the bathroom).
But now industry analysts are predicting upwards of $100+M for Iron Man’s opening, and if the numbers don’t reach that high the mainstream media might connect the dots that might not even exist (because that’s what mainstream media sometimes does).
What do you think? Please tell me what you think in the comments below.
I have included a few more factoids that I came across during my research:
Last summer, “Pirates of the Caribbean 3″ broke all box office records, with a $404 million worldwide haul in its first six days. [variety]
Hollywood is using the game launch to start putting videogames in the store’s lucrative “new releases” section. That’s space that won’t be available for DVDs. [variety]
The First Weekend of Summer became the first weekend of May in 1998 with Deep Impact, the first movie to open in that slot to gross over $100 million in history. Of the nine films in the slot since then, only 3 have made less than D.I.’s $140 million domestic – Mission:Impossible III, Van Helsing, and the lowest grosser of them all, Kingdom of Heaven. All three have been seen as flops, fairly or not (not the point of this piece). So, $140 million is The Success Bottom for that slot. [mcn]
Steve Mason revised his Iron Man estimate to $100M in the period starting Thursday (5/1) at 8pm and ending Sunday night (5/4). According to Mason, Paramount’s company line seems to be that “anything that starts with a 7 would be great.” If Iron Man’s own studio is talking about $70M, it’s safe to call for something bigger, and $100M seems like a good bet. Also, given the advantage that Spider-Man 3 received for being the first blockbuster of the summer, I think the Robert Downey Jr. Marvel superhero epic could finish its domestic run with $275M.
If Iron Man takes in $100 million, and GTA4 takes in $400 million, this could be the biggest week in entertainment history.
April 28th, 2008 at 3:24 am
I talked about this issue before in my own article here on FirstShowing.net.
This is the exact problem that is causing this to become such a talked-about issue: doing “the math” is not true justification for concern. It’s just throwing around numbers. I mean, seriously, does anyone REALLY believe that JUST because they bought GTA IV (supposedly 6 million people), ALL of them will NOT go see Iron Man? That’s a ridiculous claim! There are so many variables to every individual person’s considerations that there is no realistic way to determine how big of an impact GTA IV will actually have.
Anyway, thankfully you agree with me on this argument. And you’re right - they’re going to use GTA IV as a scapegoat no matter what if it doesn’t perform as expected. I don’t really know what to predict right now but I am VERY anxious to see how this weekend goes. I’ll definitely be reporting back to everyone on Monday night/Tuesday after the GTA IV launch, Thursday night after the midnight showings, and Friday after the regular opening.
April 28th, 2008 at 3:50 am
Wow…I expect to see an article this dumb only on CHUD. Did someone from there move over to here?
April 28th, 2008 at 3:57 am
You guys are really hammering this issue a lot lately. As I’ve said GTAIV is a phenomena. And if you travel around the internet you could tell easily how big this game is going to do. What’s even more remarkable about the game is that the marketing has been rather tame compared to what studios have done for Iron-Man. The franchise is “that’ powerful that they can get away with a couple of commercials on tv and internet trailers here and there. And people have or know about it’s upcoming release.
What’s also going to big an even bigger pull for GTAIV is it’s new multiplayer design, which I think everyone and their mother has been waiting or wanting since the third title. I have friends ranging from late teens to late their 30’s, married, single, who are going nuts at the thought of playing GTA online.
Do I think it’s going to hurt Iron-Man sales? I think its going to take a sizeable chunk of the audience in some form. Mainly because the game will have lots to do in terms of immersion. And knowing how rabid people “are” with certain game franchises, is why I believe it could be a factor in IM sales taking somewhat of a hit. People are going and having midnight release parties for the damn game later today.
Basically, this game is going to sell like an Aids cure.
April 28th, 2008 at 5:24 am
Wow? You don’t think a videogame could do better then a movie and hurt its take? Come on, the videogame industry has been making more then the movie industry each year why? Iron Man will make it’s 100 million, but it’s going to have a long road before it reaches GTA4 LOL. I’m getting GTA4 tomorrow for the PS3 AND seeing a midnight show of Iron Man thursday night here in Indy. I’m fine with, but while my 9.25 for Iron Man will be one time only deal GTA4 is something that will keep me coming back long after the credits roll on Iron Man. Movies can only give so much while videogames can offer so much more. Why WOULDN’T they hurt the box office overall? Wake up and smell the trend Peter, this is nothing new.
April 28th, 2008 at 5:30 am
While I’m here…your comment, “If a movie ticket cost more than $7-$10 (let’s say $60) then maybe consumers would be forced to choose. But right now the price of a movie ticket is not enough to warrant a money spending decision.”
That’s not entirely true. If I take a gal to the movie lets say I might spend 9 bucks for the both of us, plus another 10-15 on two large drinks, a popcorn and maybe some candy. Who the hell goes to the theater and JUST sees a movie without any other concessions? All of a sudden that ‘can be’ a 30+ buck run at the movies easy. Now that does start affecting the decision making process.
Conclusion: GTA4 will definitely take a chunk out of Iron Man. Movie Studio Distribution Heads should take into consideration when they launch a movie cause in this case - it will matter.
April 28th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Apples and oranges…
April 28th, 2008 at 5:53 am
Could care less about GTAIV, can’t wait for Ironman.
April 28th, 2008 at 6:06 am
I actually won’t be buying a ticket to iron man this weekend because of GTA IV. I’m not sure you realize how big a deal this is for any 16-30 year old video gamer.
Course it won’t stop me from still going to see IM eventually ;)
April 28th, 2008 at 6:28 am
Paramount is a little scared. Go look at ign.com’s GTAIV launch section - it’s sponsored by Iron Man!! I don’t think that’s a coincidence.
April 28th, 2008 at 6:50 am
I pirated GTA 4 and played it already but I’m paying to go see Iron Man on Saturday. Take that video games.
April 28th, 2008 at 7:21 am
I was leaning in the “yes, GTA4 will impact Iron Man’s first weekend” direction back in March. http://www.slashfilm.com/2008/03/18/the-showdown-will-grand-theft-auto-iv-bite-into-iron-mans-box-office/
The fact remains that GTA’s buzz online and with young people surpasses Iron Man’s by far. While I think Iron Man will be extremely successful b/c it’s been marketed better than any film this summer sans The Dark Knight, even if it flies past $70 mill its first wke, GTA4 will have people asking, “Yeah, but what if we took that video game out of the equation, how much bigger?”
The other thing we’re not considering is that GTA and Iron Man are opening worldwide at the same time, so it’s more than domestic grosses. I think that in this case those “dots” do exist. It’s not just about the buyers of GTA4 either, b/c everyone who cops this game will have 5 people easy at their house staring in awe for the entire weekend. Whereas, with Iron Man this is not possible.
April 28th, 2008 at 7:50 am
Ok, let’s look at it this way:
6 Million people buy GTA IV. A lot of those copies purchased tonight or tomorrow. Giving people lots of time to play and have fun. But here’s my thing: How many of those people would have gone and seen Iron Man anyway? Can anyone guarantee a number? Not really. And who is to say that a lot of those people aren’t going to go see it anyway? So at the very most…A couple million people don’t go see it for one reason or another thats related to GTA IV. I honestly don’t think that video games make that big of an impact on the movies industry right now. Maybe in the future, not right now.
@ Bryan: Yes, video games are great, love em myself. But you should read Peter’s rant. Movies still make more money right now and they have much cheaper prices. DVD/Blu-Ray sales rake in a ton of loot. The reason video game companies make so much money? Games at $50 or $60 bucks a pop and an initial investment of $300+ for the console before you can even play. For one 360 and a copy of GTA IV you can go see…What, around 90 movies? (give or take a few depending on your area’s pricing.)
Talk to me when, like Spiderman 3 did last year, 22.5 million people buy a video game in the first three days. We’re still a little ways away from that for sure.
The End
April 28th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Man.. I’m playing this for days.. MAYBE a week later could I think in the possibility of watching Iron man. Don’t really care that much I’d already seen all the action sequences.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Look Grand Theft Auto 4 has received a 10 out of 10 on IGN. That means this game is probably perfect. If the reviews for Ironman aren’t great, hell I’m not wasting my money and time.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Isn’t Iron Man going to be just like a videogame anyways?
April 28th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Im going to see Iron man!! Gta4 is not going to have any effect.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Well that depends if gas prices go up any higher im going to have alot of trouble going to the theater and gamestop. :(
Please make the gas go down!
April 28th, 2008 at 9:28 am
In before comment about Cognitive Surplus.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:32 am
@ Corey Wilson MySpacer:
Don’t like gas prices? Stop driving.
I don’t want to turn this comment thread into a political/philosoph circle-jerk, but seriously, there’s bigger problems than gas prices.
Feel fortunate you live in a country and were born at a time when we have things like Iron Man the Movie and GTA-IV.
I reiterate; don’t like gas prices? Stop driving.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:48 am
And if you don’t like having a life, play your video games.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Video games are fucking retarded. Anyone who goes out and buys Grand Theft Auto IV should be embarrassed. PLEASE keep these stories off of slash film. I don’t want this site to turn into IGN.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:07 am
If people can’t take a two hour break from playing GTA 4 to see Iron Man then they either didn’t want to see the movie anyway or they have a serious problem with video game addiction.
In any case if this were all true then we would see an enormous spike in Iron Man’s ticket sales a week later wouldn’t we? Either way I don’t care. I’m playing GTA 4 and watching Iron Man. Time management, go figure, I know that’s a foreign concept for most Americans.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Iron Man will make a healthy chunk, but GTA is going to dominate. Have you seen the reviews it’s getting? Straight 10’s, fan boys are eating this shit up, just like I am. It’s going to sell like hot cakes. Whatever hotcakes ARE.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Sauce, what the fuck? Where do you live, Brazil? 90 movies? Hopefully you were being sarcastic, with 60 dollars, I could maybe see 5.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Way to contribute, jimbo. My brother is staying over the summer after his finals are done this week. Him, myself, and all our friends are going to be glue to GTA4 for weeks to come. I know for a fact though that, Ironman looks great and it’s been getting great praise, we’re all going to see it. It’s a couple dollars out of our pockets, ~2hrs, and something that doesn’t occur very often.
Of course, as stated above, your mileage will vary.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Fact of the matter is this is an unprovable argument. Too many variables and there is no control. Find me a town that is representative of your average town and take away all the copies of GTA for 100 miles then release IRON MAN. Oh and make sure all the same sporting events are taking place and concerts and commu nity events. Oh and make the weather the same everywhere too.
I choose to believe that if IRON MAN does poorly it is because Robert Downey Jr. Has offended the african american population with tropic thunder. Prove me wrong. You can’t. But it’s an equally good Cable News Explanation. Here’s another one. Iron man doesn’t speak to Christian Americans because he represents science over religion. Iron man isn’t american enough. The advertising hasn’t portrayed him rapped in a flag and robert downey jr didn’t wear a flag pin on his lappel. Tony Start is also seen as too elitist for the heartland.
Arguing with cable news is an imagination problem not a analytical one. Facts just get in the way for them you know.
April 28th, 2008 at 11:47 am
I was arguing the console and game together. About $360-$400 dollars. A lot of people don’t want to invest that much into video games.
April 28th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Sauce,
What the hell are you talking about? Of course people want to spend that much on videogames. Look at the worldwide sales of the Wii, 360, and PS3 combined.
There’s a reason why there are now 3 viable game consoles on the market today. PEOPLE ARE INVESTING INTO GAMES. And comments like the ones Jimbo makes only proves how much people have no idea what influence the gaming industry does have. Videogames are retarded? But talking and having a website about films isn’t? Whats the difference?
It’s all pop culture material.
April 28th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
GTA4 is in my hands after work tomorrow…maybe even during lunch.
Saturday, I will be having a date night with my wife, going for dinner and to see Iron Man while my parents watch our baby.
I have always been a big gamer, but in the same respect, I have always been a film buff. The biggest video game in years still isn’t going to keep me from an amazing looking superhero movie!
April 28th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Just for the record, This was published on the first DAY of Halo 3’s release last year.
“In even more Halo 3 related news, initial sales for Master Chief’s latest incarnation are coming in, and the Xbox 360 exclusive title has sold through 1.8 million copies during the first 8 hours of release. Microsoft has already made an estimated 140.4 million dollars and is expected to cash-in on 191.1 million dollars before the end of the day. This would put Halo 3 at the top of the list for any form of entertainment’s top “one day salesâ€
http://news.filefront.com/current-halo-3-sales-figures
To say that video games have no ‘influence ‘ or impact is just wrong. Me? I’m sure I can manage to enjoy both GTA4 and Iron Man.
April 28th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Im picking up GTAIV after work and im going to play it for the next 3 days straight. Then on saturday im going to take a break and go see iron man.
I think alot of people will do the same
April 28th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
picking it up tonight..seeing iron man on saturday!
April 28th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
well one thing the last time they blamed video games for a crappy movie take the movie sucked any ways. So i would blame it on the movies plus games cost more and you get more hours out of it. Plus you seem kinda bitter so just try and play games just go and play rock band or GHIII and get your feet wet. Dont nock it tell you try it. Plus play alone and find games that are user friendly. I think Bio Shock since it is a really good game and gives you hints. Plus it appeals to alot of people since you can play it any way you want.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoYorK3E4aM
April 28th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Haha, some of you guys trip me out lol.
Anyway, let me start out by saying that I do play and love video games. I am 28 years old and admittedly love them. I have friends and associates, including my wife, that play them also. Sure, GTA4 will make boat loads of money. Tons, believe me people. But it still comes dowon to this, like he was trying to explain above, a video game cost $50-60, movies cost like say $10 for one ticket to be safe. Of course the game is going to do more. No question about it.
Now, will it cut into Iron Man’s take? Maybe a little bit, possible 10-12 million. I am still guessing that Iron Man does like 80-85 million. Which is a safe guess but still is going to make the studio happy. Sure, without the game being released the same week it probably would have done 100+ mil. But you have other things that everyone is not taking into consideration out of all of this. I mean, say it rains the entire weekend in certain areas, people naturally stay inside and will play games lol, or what about, alot of parents will not be letting their kids play the game, to violent or whatever, they will be seeing the movie I bet you. Sure you have some that are absolutely addicted to games, lol, that wont ever change, but me being an avid gamer I can guarantee you that I will see it. Hell, what about all of the guys, and they are the majority gamers sorry ladies, that have girl friends or wives lol, you think all of the females are going to just want to stay home on a weekend night and let their man play video games when they can take them out to a movie that has been promoting pretty well on television, which I am sure all of them have seen the adds for? I dont think so. In the end, the video game industry will win by profits, but not in terms of people. So everyone is really right here, but unless the price of movies jumps up to $50-60 a ticket it wont change the amount of people that go see the movies. That will always be more then the amount of people that BOUGHT the video game…. Anthony
April 28th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
I’ll be flipping a coin.
Heads = Iron Man and a trip to the Gas Station
Tails = GTAIV
Anybody else wanna call it?
April 29th, 2008 at 2:33 am
This whole thread proves why it’s insane why Hollywood has yet to make a GTA movie. It should or would make a killing at the box office!
April 29th, 2008 at 6:38 am
the release of GTA4 will not hurt Iron man. Rober Downy Jr. playing a super hero will hurt Iron man!! I predict a Daredevil type of movie!! One good week and then you can get it on DVD next month!
April 29th, 2008 at 8:39 am
GTA the movie with Robert Downey Jr. as the main character! BAM! Instant classic.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:39 am
@Jamie - please don’t encourage them. Besides a GTA movie would not work for the same reason I don’t care to sit around passively watching someone play the game… it’s an INTERACTIVE experience that has no business being structured as a linear narrative.
@all - the most important thing about GTA v IRON MAN is not the nominal cost of the product… it’s the time and attention that one steals from the other. The best part in all of this is how the BO forecasts have been raised recently, as though the NYT called and said they needed a “Iron Man Disappoints with Only $100M” story next week.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:11 am
i’m not quite sure what demographic i fall into, but i know that i will be picking gta today. i also know that i wont see ironman (or probably and other movie) until it releases on bluray. the home HD era has totally ruined the theatre experience for me, especially for action flicks. whereas a night at the movies was previously a weekly experience for me, i now might catch a new movie once a year. on the other hand, videogames are consuming a much larger proportion of my entertainment dollars and time (probably too much to be honest).
April 29th, 2008 at 11:08 am
I just go my copy of GTA 4 today and I will probably take 2 hour break to catch Ironman but then again I can’t I afford it anymore. Oh well.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I don’t believe GTA4 will hurt the film as most people have been saving for this game for some time and actually might have extra money to see the movie after they purchase the game.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
But… but… but.. Halo 3 hurt the box office of the highly anticipated film Heartbreak Kid. It had Ben Stiller in it therefore everyone and their mother wanted to see it, then Halo 3 came out and everyone (and their mother) played that instead. How do you explain Heartbreak Kid’s failure?!? I mean, its not like Hollywood makes crappy movies that no one wants to see…
April 29th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
I will not go watch iron although i heavily anticipate it, and it is for the reason that i have GTA 4. I will keep playing the game till i finish it, i am just taking a break because i look like i just smoke a joint (eyes really red) and its great.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
well GTAIV is going to kill it this weekend, and then next week Indy comes out so its screwed both weeks. and probably won’t get as much money as it should.
April 30th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Iron Man is picking up some outstanding reviews so far. It has an 81 on Metacritic right now with 11 reviews. I’m psyched.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
video game will beat all the industry movie….believe me. it will happen soon
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:45 am
While I do agree with your assertion that the cost of a movie ticket alone ($7-$10) is not enough to dissuade the average 14-30 year old gamer from doubling up on GTA IV and IM, I do think you are utterly ignoring one major factor; time. As an avid gamer I can tell you that a very, VERY, large portion of the GTA IV audience will be sitting at home this weekend since 1.) this is the first weekend the game has been out, and players with school / job responsibilities will be getting their first major free time to devote to this 30-40 hour game, 2.) GTA IV features multiplayer for the first time in the franchise’s history, and that will further compel gamers to stay home to try out the new feature. Take it to the bank, Iron Man will not hit its $100 million this weekend, and GTA IV will be a large reason as to why.
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:55 am
Well, since Iron Man is now on a projected take of , conservatively, 91-100 Million , for it’s opening weekend. (Far exceeding expectations and making it the second largest opening in history for a non sequel).
I guess its a mute point.
Iron man is an incredible movie (saw it last night) and a video game is not going to stop people from attending.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Considering that iron man will suck extremely hard and no one is going to go watch it anyway, who cares?
-Goes back to playing GTA 4-
May 5th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
“Considering that iron man will suck extremely hard and no one is going to go watch it anyway, who cares?”
Considering the film has fantastic reviews and made 104 million over the weekend, I think it’s safe to say you, and this article, were off base.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I got GTA4 the day it came out and was looking forward to seeing Ironman opening weekend. I was on GTA pretty much the entire weekend and totally forgot ironman was even opening. So for me…it did have an effect on their box office and I’m not the only one.
July 7th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Thats right paramount!Flee before GTA IV!!