Summer blockbuster season is just a week away, and I have been working my regular industry contacts to get an early feel for the first 2 weekends of May. The news is very good for Iron Man (Paramount), but Speed Racer (Warner Bros) is a huge question mark.
Those that have seen Iron Man (Paramount) have been blown away by Jon Favreau’s Marvel adaptation. One exec described it as not so much a superhero movie and not exactly science fiction. It is more “science fact.” Paramount has every reason to be thrilled with early tracking for Iron Man due next Friday (5/2). I’m told that Un-Aided Awareness, the best measure of buzz and anticipation, is at a solid 15%. The Total Aware is at 82%, so it will likely reach complete saturation by opening day. With 11 days until opening, Definite Interest is an excellent 50% and the Robert Downey, Jr. vehicle checks in with a 20% First Choice.
As of today, it appears that Iron Man will fall well short of the $151.1M that Spider-Man 3 earned on the same weekend last year, but there is an almost certain $60M+ opening. This is a conservative early read, and it’s very possible that I’ll adjust north early next week.
The other May 2 release is Made of Honor (Sony). McDreamy (Patrick Dempsey) has real female appeal, but as of now, only 66% of moviegoers have heard of the movie. Made appears to be a solid piece of counter-programming. My sources point out that even though Overall Definite Interest is at 29%, the rom-com has 43% Definite Interest among Females Under 25 and 37% with Females 25 Plus. As of Tuesday (4/22), it is very possible that $16M-$19M is in the cards on opening weekend.
There is every reason for Warner Bros to be concerned about the Wachowski Brothers’ treatment of the classic cartoon Speed Racer. I am hearing that Un-Aided Awareness is at only 5%, but it has a Total Aware of 77%. Definite Interest, however, is at a mere 29% and that could spell trouble. That’s less interest than the Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher picture What Happens in Vegas (Fox), which opens on the same day.
Speed Racer is showing strength with the 25 Plus crowd – people who grew up on the cartoon – but it is struggling to get traction with Under 25’s. Warner Bros must be hoping that this picture will skew very young and will play like a family film luring parents with their kids. Pre-teens are never fully represented in industry tracking, but still, this is a big, very expensive blockbuster. Unless it is connects more strongly with Males Under 25, it may be a huge disappointment.
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April 23rd, 2008 at 6:22 am
The film looks good in the coming attractions. Robert Downey Jr., is superb in the trailers. The effects look great. I think this will do very, very well with critics and at the box office.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Iron Man looks fantastic. That’s pretty obvious.
Speed Racer looks cool as hell to me. It’s interesting to see that it’s struggling in the under 25 demo though. From the looks of it, it seems like kids should eat it up, regardless of if they are familiar with Speed Racer or not. I can’t wait for either.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:50 am
I’m in that under 25 crowd, and every time I’m hanging out with people and something Speed Racer related comes on the tv, the channel is changed. The irk I have with the film already is that it just seems… almost too cartoonish for me to take seriously and actually give it a chance. The visuals look cool (except when they’re racing in the desert, the backgrounds are so bland), but there’s just something to the bombardment of colors and CGI up in my face constantly that I don’t like. I assume that this is why others in my age group aren’t jumping on board.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:47 am
I love the sarcastic superhero and Downey Jr. plays it well. Speed Racer doesn’t catch my attention at all. F-Zero + Willy Wonka = Speedracer.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Can someone kindly explain what un-aided and total awareness menas?
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
It’s not suprising about Speed Racer. I wouldn’t be completely suprised if Iron Man does #1 two weeks in a row due to strong word of mouth. Early reviews have been overwhelmingly positive.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:30 pm
SPEED RACER ON MUSHROOMS in IMAX .is the only way to see this film !!!!
April 24th, 2008 at 6:28 am
Early Speed Racer reviews have actually been markedly better than those for Iron Man.
Iron Man has had reported problems with pacing, a sub-par musical score, and complaints that all the best bits have been shown in the trailers.
By contrast, Speed Racer is said to be superb family fun that works on every single level (”another Toy Story“, according to Alex Billington), and there are apparently plenty of surprises left in the film that have not been shown in the trailers.
Under 25s are an interesting market to sell to. I think most of them haven’t seen enough movies to realise that the “darker” movies this Summer (i.e. ones with low key lighting and a focus on “realism”…ooh la la!) are the ones that are much more run-of-the-mill, and that Speed Racer will actually be offering the most unique experience of the lot.
Plus, I think there’s a bit of a macho thing as well - guys in their teens and twenties don’t want to be seen walking into a colourful kid’s movie :-D