10,000 B.C. has very strong Total Awareness of 83%, compared to a nearly-identical 82% for 300 last year, but the Emmerich-directed prehistoric epic has better Definite Interest 57%-52%, although 300 scored better with Males Under 25 (78%-57%) and Males 25 Plus (59%-49%). The 2 films have identical 24% First Choice numbers at the same stage of their marketing cycles. 300 went off with a considerably stronger First Choice with Males Under 25 (49%-37%), but younger women are more interested in 10,000 B.C. (11%-7%).
One of the major considerations here is that 10,000 B.C. is rated PG-13 compared to 300’s strong R. Also women seem more open to watching wooly mammoths over Leonidas and his noble Spartans. Un-Aided Awareness for this year’s Warner Bros loincloth flick, however, is lagging 300 17%-9%. That means there is less buzz and less anticipation. Given all of that, 10,000 B.C. seems headed for $42M-$45M.
Fresh from the vaguely disappointing Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal), Martin Lawrence returns to America’s multiplexes with College Road Trip (Disney). This is a G-rated film with muh broader family appeal than Roscoe Jenkins. In fact, College Road Trip has 84% Awareness compared to the 62% score registered by Universal’s Lawrence vehicle.
I’m told that industry tracking for College Road Trip is a few ticks behind the tracking for Disney’s family-oriented The Game Plan. The Rock football pic opened with a better First Choice 12%-9%, but The Game Plan was driven by more predictable young males instead of the young females who will fuel this week’s Disney movie. The final opening weekend gross for College Road Trip will likely be more than Roscoe Jenkins’ $16.2M but less than the $22.9 grabbed by The Game Plan. That should put Lawrence’s new film in the $17M-$20M range.
The third major wide release is The Bank Job from Lionsgate. Last August, Jason Statham starred in WAR, an action flick also from Lionsgate, and it managed $9.82M in its opening weekend. Bank Job is unlikely to match that take as my sources tell me that it trails in Total Awareness 59%-40%, Definite Interest 37%-26% and First Choice 7%-5%. Plus, WAR was boosted by a nifty 10% First Choice among Under 25 Males. On a rather limited 1,300 or so screens, The Bank Job appears to be headed for a lackluster $4M-$7M.
Here are my final predictions for Friday, March 7 thru Sunday, March 9:
1. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) - $42.7M
2. College Road Trip (Disney) - $18.75M
3. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $7.1M
4. Vantage Point (Sony) - $6.9M
5. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $5.65M
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $5.1M
7. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $5M
8. Jumper (Fox) - $4.5M
9. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $3.5M
10. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) - $2.8M
11. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) - $2.75M
12. Penelope (Summit) - $2.5M
Read More on Fantasy Moguls.
March 6th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
You’re kidding, right? 10,000 BC will not make $40 mill. Sure the awareness is there, but only because the ads run non-stop. I think you’re off on this one…and I think ladies would probably watch greased up Leonidas than wooly mammoths. This will be an interesting weekend to watch.
March 6th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
after that beauty of a prediction for semi-pro last week, i’m wondering if these tracking folks might not be so reliable…
March 7th, 2008 at 3:43 am
10,000 BC looks like something someone thought of while watching those Geico commercials.
March 7th, 2008 at 6:01 am
This is a flick my mom would want to see…. I know, cuz I’m taking her to it. She cant wait. :rolls eyes:
I’m betting this film will do very well with the 50+ crowd.
March 7th, 2008 at 10:19 am
At least not a new comic film adaptation. the script was made out of Emmerich’s imagination, that’s something more difficult than copying the efforts from past comics or films…that’s why Emmerich deserves some respect in Hollywood.
March 7th, 2008 at 10:31 am
NOT. 10,000 BC looks like an Apocalypto ripoff and the CGI is bordering Scooby Doo.
I saw that Miss Pettigrew movie last night…it doesn’t have a chance of huge box office but it was surprisingly good.
March 7th, 2008 at 10:48 am
10,000 BC will not make that much loot, its looks like poop and I do not know anyone that wants to see it yet for 300 I didn’t know anyone who was not pumped as hell to check it out. It looks like a cheap rip off of Apocalypto. Apocalypto was an artful piece that was a very good movie and well mad (and I loved that it was not English, so mush more realistic, even though some of the story points where disproved but experts.
The Bank Job looks pretty good though, I know I will def rent it, but prob won’t catch it in theaters, I still need to catch up on Semi-Pro tonight.
March 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I’m a 30-something male and I have to say this one surprised me. Verdict: A few moments of weak CG do not ruin a movie. I don’t want to give anything away as I am the type that loves going into a film without knowing a thing about it.
Much better than expected.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
kiko,
Just because someone makes something up doesn’t automatically make it “good” or cuts it from any criticism. Sorry.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
And not because someone doesn’t makes something good it “has” to suck! He makes films for people who like his style…and that seems to be the mass. He makes films that bring money for the studios, this money goes exactly right there to compensate the bad sellings of the rest of intellectual films that no one ones to see. Hollywood has to make money to survive, the cinemas have to be filled up, otherwise the studios will never ever again will produce things like the minority of wisdom seekers orbiting this pages want to see. I don’t want to say that he is really good, he’s just necessary, because low budget “intelligent” movies need this big nerdy blockbusters to keep on rolling, almost like parasites. Never wonder why do the cinemas are making less and less profit! You are the reason, people like you that do not like diversity. Bread and games is the only thing the Romans want, someone has to give it to them.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
And for those millions of everywhere posters that keep saying that this is a copy of “Apocalypto”, remember well the time it came out to the cinemas how many reviews did the round saying it was a copy of Stargate because of the damn pyramids! So who’s the uncreative guy now?