Sony may not have a serious Oscar contender at tomorrow night’s 80th Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre, but they still have a big winner this weekend. Vantage Point, either an homage or a knock-off of Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon, received a nice 22% Saturday bounce from its opening day, adding another $9.76M. The Oscar telecast makes Sunday tougher-than-usual to project, but I’m calling for a 38% drop. That would give the Pete Travis-directed assassination thriller a far better than expected $23.8M weekend.

The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), was up over 100% from Friday, and the family fantasy film delivered a $6.18M Saturday. That puts the $100M-budgeted franchise-wannabe on target for a $13.3M 2nd weekend and a new cume of $44.2M by Monday morning.

Fox’s Jumper leapt to $5.66M on its 2nd Saturday, and it’ll finish #3 for the weekend with a likely $12.68M. Step Up 2 the Streets, Disney’s low budget urban dance sequel, posted another $4.29M today, and that should translate to a 4th-place finish with just over $10M for the frame. The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson rom-com Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) rounds out the Top 5 with $3.1M Saturday and an anticipated $6.99M for the weekend, putting the tepidly-reviewed film above the $50M mark in domestic sales.

I’ve had a tough time trying to figure out just how well U2-3D (National Geographic) has been performing this weekend. If you scroll down, you’ll see that last night, I projected $800,000 for Friday and $3.36M for the weekend. I overshot the film’s performance considerably.

National Geographic is a rookie distributor, and I’ve come to learn that they accepted partial schedules at many of the 686 Digital 3-D locations that opened the concert film yesterday. The majority of new playdates for U2-3D share the screen with Hannah Montana (Disney), and in some locales, Bono and friends are only getting 1 or 2 shows per day.

As a result, U2-3D only managed $315,000 on Friday, another $400,000 today, and it will finish with about $1M for the weekend. In fact, Hannah Montana has dramatically outpaced the older-skewing band’s effort with $810,000 Saturday and an estimated $1.73M for the 3-day. By the time Miley Cyrus steps onto the stage at the Kodak as a presenter, her Best of Both Worlds Concert movie will have banked about $61.4M domestic.

New releases Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) will finish the weekend at #12 and #13 respectively with the Larry the Cable Guy comedy limping to about $300,000 more in ticket sales.

In the PTA race, it appears that The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics), a big winner at the Israeli Film Academy Awards, will capture the crown with $126,000 or so for the weekend and about $15,750 per location. IFC Films’ The Duchess of Langeais will likely finish #2 with a weekend PTA of approximately $10,000, followed by the likely Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics), which debuted with an estimated $9,000+ 3-day PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $9.76M - $3,099 PTA – 17.76M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $6.18M - $1,606 PTA - $40.1M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) - $5.66M - $1,651 PTA - $53M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $4.29M - $1,732 PTA - $38.9M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) - $3.1M - $1,008 PTA - $51.2M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $2.36M - $1,065 PTA - $20.5M cume
7. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $2.07M - $1,109 PTA -  $34.6M cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $2.05M - $1.188 PTA - $129.4M cume
9. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $1.66M - $2,059 PTA - $3.03M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $1.34M - $960 PTA - $34.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $1.23M - $650 PTA - $84.5M cume
12. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $700,000 - $525 - $700,000 cume
13. Hannah Montana (Disney) - $810,000 - $1,321 PTA - $61.4M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $790,000 - $578 - $72.7M cume
15. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $780,000 - $695 PTA - $1.41M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) - $400,000 - $583- $4.59M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $365,000 - $2,239 PTA - $2.57M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) - $58,000 - $7,250 PTA -      $354,000 cume
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $47,000 - $979 PTA - $408,000 cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $45,000 - $281 PTA - $79,000 cume
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $24,000 - $4,000 PTA - $38,000
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $14,000 - $1,000 PTA - $24,000 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $8,600 - $4,300 PTA - $14,400 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $23.81M - $7,562 PTA - $23.8M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $13.32M - $3,463 PTA -$44.2M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) - $12.68M - $3,700 PTA - $56.2M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $10.24M - $4,130 PTA - $41.8M cume
5. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) - $6.99M - $2,276 PTA - $53.1M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $5.5M - $2,480 PTA - $22.1M cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.56M - $2,645 PTA - $130.8M cume
8. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $4.42M - $2,363 PTA -  $35.9M cume
9. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $4.08M - $5,058 PTA - $4.08M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $3.03M - $2,162 PTA - $35.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $2.69M - $1,419 PTA - $85.2M cume
12. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2.29M - $1,718 PTA - $2.29M  cume
13. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $1.88M - $1,678 PTA - $1.88M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $1.81M - $1,325 PTA - $73.2M cume
15. Hannah Montana (Disney) - $1.73M - $2,836 PTA - $62M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) - $1.01M - $1,485- $4.89M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $830,000 - $5,092 PTA - $2.8M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) - $126,000 - $15,750 PTA -     $397,000 cume
*George A. Romero’s Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM)     $110,000 - $2,292 PTA - $440,000 cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $108,000 - $675 PTA - $108,000
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $55,000 - $9,167 PTA - $55,000 cume
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $33, 000 - $2,357 PTA - $33,000 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $20,000 - $10,000 PTA - $20,000 cume

Read More at [1] Fantasy Moguls.