I’m getting ready to jet off to Phoenix for Super Bowl 42, where I will be covering the game for ESPN, so I’m doing a “bare bones” version of my normal weekend estimates.
Meet the Spartans (Fox) has apparently won the day Friday with an estimated $6.5M compared to Rambo’s opening day of $6M, but my projection is that the Lionsgate Stallone sequel will play a bit stronger with Males 25 Plus on this football-free Saturday and Sunday. My projection is that the poorly reviewed Rambo will manage to win the 3-day with about $17.4M compared to $17.1M or so for Spartans.
Cloverfield (Paramount) has absolutely “fallen apart” in its 2nd weekend. It managed only $4.5M on Friday, and it’ll lumber to a disappointing $13.1M for the weekend. That would be a horrifying 68% drop, and it’ll be in a 3-day photo finish with 27 Dresses (Fox), which appears to be headed for $13M after a $4M Friday.
Sony’s Untraceable has performed slightly above industry expectations with an estimated $3.5M on its opening day. While skewing strongly toward older females, this techno-thriller should capture $10.5M by Monday morning. Meanwhile, How She Move (Paramount Vantage) is a disaster with a meager $1M on Friday, and a likely $2.85M on opening weekend.
On the PTA front, IFC Films’ 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, which failed to grab a foreign language Oscar nomination, debuted strongly at 2 locations on Friday with a $7,000 PTA. Cristian Mungiu’s Romanian abortion drama, jilted by the Academy Awards’ faulty foreign language film methodology, has a chance to score an impressive $25,000+ weekend PTA.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Meet the Spartans (Fox) - $6.5M - $2,495 PTA - $6.5M cume
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $6M - $2,181 PTA - $6M cume
3. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $4.5M - $1,560 - $55.8M cume
4. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $4M - $1,071 PTA - $35.4M cume
5. Untraceable (Sony) - $3.5M - $1,478 PTA - $3.5M cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $2.85M - $1,204 PTA - $92.7M cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $2.53M - $1,043 PTA - $50M cume
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $1.25M - $429 PTA - $202M cume
9. Mad Money (Overture) - $1.2M - $557 PTA - $11.8M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $1.15M - $466 PTA - $11M cume
11. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) - $1M - $653 PTA - $1M cume
12. Atonement (Focus) - $975,000 - $637 PTA - $34.9M cume
13. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) - $820,000 - $586 PTA - $200.4M cume
14. First Sunday (Sony) - $775,000 - $319 PTA - $31.9M cume
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $590,000 - $393 PTA - $50.1M cume
16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) - $530,000 - $479 PTA - $249.9M cume
*4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) - $14,000 - $7,000 PTA - $14,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $17.4M - $6,325 PTA - $17.4M cume
2. Meet the Spartans (Fox) - $17.1M - $6,564 PTA - $17.1M cume
3. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $13.1M - $3,841 PTA - $64.6M cume
4. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $13M - $4,229 PTA - $44.7M cume
5. Untraceable (Sony) - $10.5M - $4,434 PTA - $10.5M cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $9.4M - $3,877 PTA - $99.2M cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $8.85M - $3,038 PTA - $56.3M cume
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $4.68M - $2,176 PTA - $205.4M cume
9. Mad Money (Overture) - $4.14M - $1,676 PTA - $14.8M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.08M - $4,613 PTA - $13.9M cume
11. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) - $3.77M - $1,552 PTA - $203.3M cume
12. Atonement (Focus) - $3.55M - $2,542 PTA - $37.5M cume
13. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) - $2.85M - $1,862 PTA - $2.85M cume
14. First Sunday (Sony) - $2.75M - $1,831 PTA - $33.9M cume
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $2M - $1,812 PTA - $51.5M cume
16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) - $1.9M - $1,358 PTA - $251.3M cume
*4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) - $51,100 - $25,550 PTA - $51,100 cume
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January 26th, 2008 at 4:27 am
How fucking pathetic, when a creative well done movie is overshadowed by some horrid shit such as Meet The Spartans.
Shows how low our society is getting when we’re attracted to crapfests like this.
Sorry I know I sound biased since I really enjoyed Cloverfield (God forbid I like something that’s not hand fed to me), but I can’t stand to see something like this win over it, I mean..even over RAMBO.
Don’t even get me started on that.
January 26th, 2008 at 7:10 am
I seriously would like to know who actually wants to see Meet The Spartans…
January 26th, 2008 at 8:23 am
meet the spartans is a waste of film and time if anyone is dum enough to even go see it, it looks like a pile of steeming shit to me
January 26th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Meet the Spartans is the type of film I download when the DVDRip is available and I watch on my second monitor while working from my home office. A distraction and something light and airy to keep me company during a slow “refactoring” day.
I expected Cloverfield to fall off big time this week. Seemed hyped by the internet and once those people saw it then it would drop off. Its not the type of film my 50 year old parents would be interested in at all.
January 26th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Not surprised.
I saw Cloverfield on Monday, and I wasn’t too impressed. Novel idea, but it doesn’t make you leave the theater with a satisfied feeling. You’re just as lost as when you walked it, so you don’t get that sense of resolution that most people desire.
Maybe the sequel will be filmed from a normal perspective and fill in the details.
January 26th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Die, cloverfield, die.
January 26th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
I wouldn’t waste my bandwidth downloading Meet the Spartans or watch that piece of monkey shit for free
January 26th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Still haven’t seen Cloverfield…Still don’t really care to. Meet the Spartans is just another movie parody piece of crap…I hate those types of movies…I don’t know why people would waste their money on them. As for Rambo…Don’t care about it.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
@Bryan : Then go see ‘27 dresses’ or ‘How she movie’ if you want to walk out with a warm fuzzy satisfied feeling with tons of resolution. Every damn movie in hollywood ends basically in the same general sense. Cloverfield makers tried to something different and I really appreciate that.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
I saw all these movies except `27 dresses` and I dont care for
that typical Hollywood crap.
-Meet the Spartans is a new Epic Movie and that means new crap .
-Rambo is so-so action flick with ancient Stallone.
-Cloverfield is no.1 on my list - original, exciting and entertaining.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
I knew Cloverfield was going to go flaccid after it’s first week.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:00 am
I don’t know how you can call $13.1 million dollars tanking. Especially in January. Especially for a $25 million dollar movie. Especially in it’s second week. Especially with quite a bit of competition.
January 27th, 2008 at 11:40 am
The point is, where all of these die hard fans who were gushing about how revolutionary and great Cloverfield was.
Looks like someone flashed a rolled up piece of shiny aluminum over yonder and, just like that, their attention is gone. LOL
January 27th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
It’s JANUARY. A movie making 13 million in a weekend usually takes the box office anyways.