USA Today polled five industry analysis for their 12th Annual Media Prognostication Contest, and four out of five agree that Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will be the highest opening weekend of 2008 (over Hancock, Harry Potter, Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Dark Knight, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan). The one outsider, Richard Greenfield of Pali Research is under the belief that Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince might edge Indy out for the win, but we all know that just won’t happen.
They also asked all five analysts to predict which animated film would open the biggest. Here are the choices:
a) Bolt (Disney)
b) Horton Hears a Who (Fox)
c) Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks)
d) Madagascar: The Crate Escape (DreamWorks)
e) WALL-E (Disney/Pixar)
Which film do you think will have the biggest opening weekend? Answer after the jump.
Four out of the five analysts believe that DreamWorks’ Madagascar: The Crate Escape will open huge. Again, Richard Greenfield of Pali Research is the lone outsider, picking Disney/Pixar’s WALL-E.
I understand that WALL-E is not an easy movie to market. There are no speaking characters, and the sci-fi heavy storyline might be too much for young audiences. But I believe this could be Pixar’s best movie to date. I’ve seen the footage shown at Comic Con, and I clearly had a sip of the kool aid. And I understand that the first Madagascar movie was big, but most audiences I talked to ended up leaving that movie disappointed. The cute penguins were the focal point of the advertising, but were barely featured in the final film. Or does that even matter? The fact that it is the lone animated sequel in the pack puts the film at a clear advantage.
January 2nd, 2008 at 6:32 pm
I’m actually surprised “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” is the top pick. There are so many more anticipated, high profile releases. As for the outside chance of “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” topping, I think it’s more possible than Indy 4 but it’s not exactly leading either. I think “Kung Fu Panda” has an outside chance, but “Madagascar: The Crate Escape” seems to be the front runner. I agree, “Wall-E” is an extremely hard sell, but I’ll never underestimate Pixar and its ability to tell a story.
January 2nd, 2008 at 6:33 pm
The dark knight will definately be in the top 10, quite possibly the top 5 - or maybe that’s just me wishing. Do not underestimate the ledger/joker hype.
January 2nd, 2008 at 7:46 pm
I’m gonna say Indy 4 will probably be the biggest this year, only
because it has such a wide audience. You have all the people that
loved it and had a good time back when the first three came out
and want to come back for more, also Shia LeBouf is a big seller
for younger kids and this movie concept will caputre alot. Now don’t
ger me wrong I think Harry Potter 6 will be big but not as big, and
then I’d have to say The Dark Knight finishing in third. Once people
see Ledger as the Joker (like in TV spots) he is the major seller
for that movie. As for Wall-E, I think it will definitly be the biggest
animated opening. I don’t think its hard to sell at all. Look how many adults love Star Wars, and for kids the Sci-fi aspect of it is
simply eye candy and I beleive that Pixar will have a major opening
for this film.
January 2nd, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Indy will win, followed by Harry Potter then TDK, Iron Man will have a good opening week but then will slip back probably to No 2 for the next couple weeks. TIH will Open with probably 15 Mil. because of the First movie. Zohan will be lukewarm at best and Wall-E will be the Surprise Animated feature probably at or in the top 4 animated films.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Madagascar is one of the worst movies I’ve ever had the fortune(?) of watching. Knowing that another is being made is severely depressing me right now.
Will stay away.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
No! High Shcool Musical 3 will be the 2008 box office winner!!!! :D LOL!!!!!!! Cant wait for Indy 4
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
I’m surprised that everyone seems to forget the major box office power that the first Narnia had. While it won’t necessarily be the biggest opening of the year, a seemingly smaller crop of animated films will open the family market. Beware Prince Caspian.
Also, I’m still unsure about WALL-E, but Pixar is a widely trusted brand and so I think people will go to whatever they produce. This will certainly be their hardest to sell yet, but I think it will be fine.
June 7th, 2008 at 8:07 am
well i found this link and looking from predictions then to today, who would have thought that prince caspian was a bust and that iron man would have the legs it has now. i still think that wall-e will have the best animated opening weekend