 
2007 is the summer of Judd Apatow and Seth Rogan. They teamed on KNOCKED UP (Universal), which has grossed nearly $150M since opening back on June 1. Now they have struck again with SUPERBAD (Sony). With a script by Rogen and Apatow producing, the long anticipated, foul-mouthed yet smart, comedy has grabbed a spectacular $11.1M on its opening day, and that should translate to an estimated $30.3M for the 3-day weekend.
As expected, RUSH HOUR 3 (New Line) will drop 60%+ for the weekend. After an estimated $6.3M on Friday, the Tucker/Chan/Ratner action-comedy should still manage to reach $18.5M on weekend #2. Meanwhile, THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) is holding decently with $5.2M Friday and an anticipated $16.2M weekend.
The stunner of the weekend is that THE INVASION (Warner Bros), the troubled 4th version of the 1950’s novel THE BODY SNATCHERS, is performing far worse than anyone could have expected. The tracking services gave it a fighting shot at cracking $10M for the weekend, but moviegoers have soundly rejected Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig and Joel Silver. THE INVASION managed only $2M on Friday, and it is headed for just a $5.7M weekend, which will likely put it at #5 behind THE SIMPSONS MOVIE (Fox) with an estimated $5.8M.
The other wide release is the misguided MGM/Weinstein historical epic THE LAST LEGION. With a cast that includes Ben Kingsley, Anthony Hopkins, Colin Firth and Bollywood superstar Aishwarya Rai, the film may sell tickets abroad, but it generated only $800,000 on its opening day in the US, and it will finish the weekend with just $2.4M by Monday morning. MGM, on the other hand, opened Frank Oz’s US Comedy Arts Festival winner DEATH AT A FUNERAL on 260 screens, and scored a modest hit. The dark comedy earned $350,000 on Friday, and it’s headed for a $1.1M weekend, a $4,230 PTA.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s THE 11TH HOUR (Warner Independent), a global warming documentary, is off to a blazing start with $28,280 on just 4 screens for a $7,000+ per theatre average. With strong reviews and considerable buzz, it will likely to cruise to just under $100,000 for the weekend and a $25,000 or so PTA. That’s far short of Al Gore’s AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH, which also opened on 4 screens back in May of last year. That Oscar winning doc grabbed a monstrous $82,000 on its opening day and $285,000 In its opening 3-day weekend. Still, the DiCaprio picture is likely to become a very strong arthouse staple over the next couple of months.
Among other specialty titles, Slowhand Releasing made a strong debut with its doc about the mean streets of Brazil, MANDA BALA: SEND A BULLET. Opening on a single screen, the Jason Kohn-directed film delivered $5,356. It should finish with an estimated PTA of $16,000 or so, trailing only THE 11TH HOUR and SUPERBAD. Seth Gordon’s documentary about classic video arcade games, THE KING OF KONG: A FISTFULL OF QUARTERS (Picturehouse) is also off to a strong start at 5 locations with an estimated $3,400 per on Friday. This niche documentary will likely reach $40,000 for the weekend or about $8,000 per theatre. Meanwhile. Tom DiCillo’s DELIRIOUS (Peace Arch Entertainment), which opened on 2 screens Wednesday, added 3 more on Friday. The offbeat show business drama starring Steve Buscemi and Michael Pitt managed only $4,961 for the day, which translates to just under $1,000 per screen.
ARCTIC TALE (Paramount Vantage) added 203 screens, and audiences are continuing to give this nature doc narrated by Queen Latifah the cold shoulder. Its estimated $50,000 Friday take amounts to a mere $220 per
screen. It’ll limp to just $220,000 or so for the 3-day, and Vantage may be forced to reconsider any further expansion. Julie Delpy’s 2 DAYS IN PARIS (IDP Films) continues decently on 20 screens with a Friday PTA of about $1,500. It’ll likely grab just over $100,000 by Monday morning. Also, ROCKET SCIENCE (Picturehouse) expanded to 40 screens, however the Sundance winner only scored $23,000 or an estimated $577 per screen.
You can find Friday’s Top 20 Movies plus key specialty films along with early 3-day estimates on FantasyMoguls.
August 18th, 2007 at 11:59 am
So let me get this straight dip shit, Rush Hour 3 made 50 million last weekend and thats a disappointment (oh a side not, its gonna be around 100 million worldwide by this weekend in two weeks, yeah what a TOTAL disappointment), yet with all the hype and great reviews, Superbad should have easily done 20 million on its first day, but only did half of that, yet it’s SPECTACULAR. GOD you’re a fucken moron. How is 30 millions spectacular, yet 50 million is a disappointment? And please, don’t say some shit like “well, so and so made this, and it cost so and so to make, and if you divide it by your ass and carry the two, you get this and that is why Rush Hour 3 is a disappointment.” It is simple, 50 million is more than 30 million, yet 50 million is a disappointment. Seriously, you have to be the biggest ass in the world.
August 18th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Steve Mason is a Moron! (This is not for Steve Mason): So, if you put 150 millions into your bank account, the bank bankrupts and you receive only 50 million by the bank insurance, it’s better then betting 20 millions in some lottery and winning 30 millions. I would like to see your grades in maths in first degree of elementary school.
August 18th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Steve,
Putting aside that Rush Hour is a piece of crap movie….
Rush Hour 3’s production budget was $140 million
Superbad’s production budget was $20 million.
August 18th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Steve Mason wrote this comment response last week:
“I’ve got nothing against Brett Ratner or Chris Tucker or New Line. In fact, I opened RUSH HOUR 3 at my theatres across from USC in Los Angeles (where the film did very well).
Also, New Line is reportedly paying 40% of the domestic gross to Tucker, Chan and Ratner. Tucker was paid $25M (against 20% of the gross) and Chan was paid $15M (against 15% of the gross). That’s not all. Ratner gets $5M (against 5% of the gross) and screenwriter Jeff Nathanson was paid well over $1M.
If the picture grosses $150M domestic, which is very possible, Tucker gets $30M, Chan gets $22.5M and Ratner gets $7.5M. That’s $60M right off the top.
Now, here are 2 other amazing caveats. New Line does not have distribution rights in China and Hong Kong where Chan is huge. Jackie has the right to distribute RUSH HOUR 3 in those territories. (Good for Chan!) Also, New Line made a 2 picture deal with Chris Tucker. The 2nd film has yet to be determined, but he will be paid the same price of $25M vs. 20% of the gross.”
okay, now Peter back again….
So let’s look at the figure: The movie was made for an estimated $170 million, which means it needed to make at least $340 million at the box office (exhibitors take almost 50%, that doesn’t go to the studio. Add on top of that the $60 million off the top Steve talked about above, that means the film needs to make about $400 million just to break even. Not turn a profit. Am I doing the math wrong?
August 18th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
It’s not even a question of math…. just vocabulary. Dissapointments come from something that had high expectations but failed to meet those. This is why RH3 was labeled dissapointing. Simple as that.