I had a very good week last week. I was right on the top 3, and was close in their totals. I over shot Shrek the Third a bit, but while I had it at $130 million it made $123 which is very close. Spider-Man 3 did a little better than I thought it would in its third week. I was less than $1 million away from the total for 28 Weeks Later. I had Georgia Rule and Disturbia switched at #4 and #5, but I was almost right on for their totals. Now we get the third and final of the May big 3. Once again, the question remains. Not will Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End be #1? The real question is whether it will pass Spider-Man 3’s record breaking weekend. Read on to find out:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Once again, an easy pick for #1. It is hard though to pick a total. For one thing, it technically opened on Thursday night and it is a four day weekend. So it is hard to predict what its total weekend Box Office will be as opposed to just the Friday - Sunday total. I am looking at the four day weekend as a whole. Pirates has the problem of being the third in a series of May movies that have been disappointing. Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third have made a ton of money, but neither has gotten great reviews and neither has been seen as being nearly as good as the second films in those series. Pirates 2 was a disappointment last summer, despite the fact that it was the highest grossing film of the year. Could that disappointment keep people away from Pirates 3? It has the advantage of being the conclusion of a story arc. #2 ended with a cliff hanger, so despite the quality issues of the film, I assume people will want to find out what happens next (I know I fall into that category). It will make $160 million through Monday, but it won’t make as much Friday - Sunday as Spider-Man 3 did on its opening weekend.

2. Shrek the Third. It got off to a great start last week with $123 million. But now it faces stiff competition in week #2 (unlike Spider-Man 3 which didn’t face competition until week #3). Even without the competition you should expect Shrek the Third to fall down quite a bit as they always do and it isn’t getting great reviews. That being said, it is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is going to go to the movies. Not everyone saw it opening weekend (lots of people want to avoid those crowds). And not everyone wants to see Pirates 3. So there is a sizable audience for Shrek the Third and it will bring in an impressive $55 million.

3. Spider-Man 3. After three weeks it is already up to $286 million, good for #27 all time in the U.S. It lost a smaller percentage (50) of its audience from week 2 to week 3 than it did (61) from week 1 to week 2, despite the competition from Shrek the Third. That is a good sign for week #4. But it faces even stiffer competition. Last week it made $29 million. If it has a similar fate as last week it will drop down to $15 million. If it does, it will jump up to #23 and if it has an even better but still plausible weekend it could get up to #21. If it wants to get into the top 10 of all time, it needs to really have staying power through out the summer. I think it has a chance. It makes $17 million over the four day weekend despite the competition.

4. Bug. This is the only other movie opening in wide release this week. So I give them some credit for that. But it hasn’t exactly had a ton of commercials. It has had some, but not a lot. Everyone heading to the movies this weekend will be heading to other movies. But if someone wants to see something new, and has already seen Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third, and wants to avoid the long lines at Pirates 3, they might head for Bug. It is a horror film so it is unlike the other top 3 films out there. Two weeks ago, 28 Weeks Later opened with just under $10 million. I see Bug having a similar fate with $8 million.

5. 28 Weeks Later. It has had a decent run with $20 million so far. But it shouldn’t do very well with all the competition this week. It makes $3 million.

That’s it. Check back next week to see how I did.