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Box Office Predictions: Will Disturbia beat NEXT?
Posted By Jon Mezzera On April 27, 2007 @ 10:47 am In Box Office | No Comments
Well, after a bit of a hiatus, the Box Office Predictions are back. This is the time of year when the Box Office really heats up. We are just one week away from May and the start of the Summer movie season. That being said, there is still one week to go. So far, Disturbia has ruled the Box Office for two weeks in a row. This week, there are four new movies opening to challenge it. Which one (if any) will claim the top spot? Read on to find out:
1. Next. The Nicholas Cage thriller seems like an obvious pick for #1 spot at the Box Office this week. For one thing, there really isn’t a lot of good competition. While Disturbia has been #1 two weeks in a row, last week it only made $13 million which was down 41% from its opening week total. If it loses a similar share of its audience, then it has little chance of keeping the top spot. So then we look at the new movies opening up and Next clearly has the most commercial appeal. Cage is coming off of Ghost Rider which did a very impressive $45 million its opening weekend on the way to a $115 million total. Next also appears to be an interesting sci-fi thriller which should appeal to fans. While it won’t do nearly as well as Ghost Rider, Next will still do well with $25 million, easily coming in #1.
2. Disturbia. As I said above, it has been #1 two weeks in a row. It will drop down again, but will only fall to #2 as the lack of quality competition helps it out. It has gotten pretty good reviews and there are likely still people out there who haven’t seen it who want to. It will do just well enough to stay in the #2 spot making $10 million.
3. The Invisible. This looks to be an interesting thriller, but it really hasn’t had a lot of buzz. I haven’t seen many commercials for it, but a few. I don’t see it doing very well at the box office with such a limited amount of advertisements. It will do o.k., bringing in $9 million.
4. The Condemned. So far the fist two WWE Films have not done great at the Box Office. Last year’s See No Evil only made $4 million its opening weekend. Then, The Marine faired a little better making $7 million its opening weekend. Stone Cold Steve Austin is by far a bigger wrestling star than Kane or John Cena. In fact, Austin is probably the biggest star over a three or four year period than anyone in the history of wrestling, including Hulk Hogan. That being said, will the retired wrestler’s one time in ring popularity translate into Box Office gold? The answer is probably no as the reviews so far have been less than stellar. It has a chance to do well because of Austin’s fan base, but it needs to reach a much wider audience to do anything but break even with its reported $20 million budget. It starts out slightly better than the previous WWE Films, making $8 million.
5. Fracture. It had a decent opening last week with $11 million to come in second. It has a chance to have good word of mouth and some staying power but not much. It makes $7 million
While $25 million for the top film is better than last week, I believe a lot of movie goers are saving their money for May when there are several huge movies opening. The other new movie this week is Kickin It Old Skool which hopefully will be a major bomb.
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