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The Messengers

Well, I had another good week last week. For the second week in a row, all of my top 5 made the top 5, but in a slightly different order. I was correct with Epic Movie for the #1 spot and was less than $2 million from its total. I had Stomp the Yard #3 and Night at the Museum #4, those was switched but I was very close on the total for each. In fact, I was only $300,000 away from the total for Stomp the Yard. I was very wrong about two new releases that I had switched on the list, Catch and Release and Smokin’ Aces. So, I did good, but not great. This week I will do great as only two new movies are opening in wide release. Will either of them overtake Epic Movie? Read on to find out:

1. The Messengers. If you have watched television over the last few weeks, chances are you have seen a commercial for The Messengers. I know I have, tons of them in fact. There seem to be several comedies out there right now and I can only assume that there is a desire among many movie goers for something different. That something looks to be The Messengers. It doesn’t look very original as several of these types of horror films have come out in the last few years, but they have typically done well at the box office. The Messengers will get off to a good start with an opening weekend of $19 million.

2. Epic Movie. Despite my hopes for a bomb, Epic Movie got off to a good start last week, about the same that Date Movie got off to last year. But Date Movie dropped more than half of its audience from week 1 to week 2 as people saw the bad reviews and realized that they shouldn’t spend their hard earned money on it. I see Epic Movie having a similar fate as it drops considerably but still holds on to the #2 spot, making $10 million.

3. Smokin’ Aces. It got off to a much better start than I thought it would with $14.6 million. It will have better staying power than Epic Movie and lose a smaller percentage of its audience and fall just short of the #2 spot, bringing in $9 million.

4. Night at the Museum. The Ben Stiller comedy continued its very impressive run last week as it made $9.5 million, to bring its total up to an amazing $217 million. It will continue to crawl towards $250 million with $7 million this week.

5. Because I said So. The only other new movie opening this week is a bit of counter programing to the teen audience based movies listed above. This is something meant for adults to enjoy. But the question remains, how many will go to see it? My guess is not very many. It has a disappointing opening with $6 million.


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One Response to “Box Office Predictions: Will The Messengers Deliver?”

  1. Gravatar

    Hello Jon,

    I like reading your stuff.

    Here are my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Box Office Estimates as of Friday night at 11p pacific.

    http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/02/exclusive_early.html

    1. BECAUSE I SAID SO - $12-$14
    2. THE MESSENGERS - $9-$11
    3. EPIC MOVIE - $8-$10
    4. SMOKIN’ ACES - $7-$9
    5. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM - $6-$8

    Keep up the great work!

  1.  
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